ChinaJingshan - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Fajing Sun #326China1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-3Tue 29 Sept 2026, 08:38 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 166 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Five days after beating Tomic in Hangzhou qualifying, Sun is across the net again in the Jingshan first round.

Tomic's serve numbers make him the slightly likelier winner, but 1.45 on him asks more than his recent record justifies, and the 2.6 on Sun is the one price here that offers value.

Context

This is the only meeting on record between the pair, and it came five days earlier on the same kind of outdoor hard court in China, so it is the most direct evidence available on the matchup rather than a projection from separate form lines. Sun beat a player ranked roughly 130 places above him to reach a tour-level main draw, and Tomic now meets him again at Challenger level with the ranking gap still in his favour. The qualifying setting and the fact that both men had already played a three-setter the previous day limit how much weight the result carries.
- Sun beat Tomic in the Hangzhou ATP 250 qualifying final round in straight sets.
- The result sent Sun into the Hangzhou main draw and left Tomic out of the tournament.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/BucharestHangzhou Open match centre, B Tomic v F Sunwww.tennis.com · 23 Sep 2026
Sun's reward for beating Tomic was a tour-level first round against Safiullin a day later, and it ended in the heaviest defeat of his recent run, which is the closest available measure of how his game holds up above Challenger level. He brings a compressed workload of three matches in three days on hard courts into this fixture, with about five days of recovery before it. The scoreline reflects the level of the opponent as much as Sun's own play, and it is one match rather than a settled trend.
- Roman Safiullin beat Fajing Sun 6-2 6-0 in the Hangzhou Open first round .
- Sun played Hangzhou qualifying on 22 and 23 September before that main-draw match.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the only physical interruption reported around either player in the past month, and it came in the middle of Sun's third match in three days. The timeout was taken while he was behind in the second set and no treatment was visible, so the nature of the problem was never established. He completed that match and played a tour-level first round the following day without a withdrawal or retirement, which is the strongest available indication that nothing serious was involved.
- Sun took a medical timeout at 3-4 down in the second set of the Hangzhou qualifying final .
- No treatment was visible from the sideline, and he resumed and completed the match.
To watchSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Jingshan is new to the ATP Challenger calendar, so this fixture carries no ATP-level title history, defending points or previous-edition results to explain the occasion, and the ranking points available sit at the lower end of the Challenger scale. Both men arrive from the same Chinese hard-court swing at the Hangzhou ATP 250, so the surface and outdoor conditions should be familiar even though the venue is not. A WTA 125 in the same city that week makes this a wider combined event than a standalone Challenger.
- The ATP Challenger 100 Jingshan appears on the week 39 entry list with dates of 29 September to 4 October 2026.
- The Jingshan entry list was published and updated on 25 September 2026.
- A WTA 125 in Jingshan is listed for the same 28 September to 4 October week.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic is the higher-ranked player with the stronger serve and slightly better point totals over the same hard-court window, while Sun has mixed heavy defeats with his wins.
- Ranked No. 182 vs No. 314; Tomic is 9-6 on hard in his last 15, Sun 8-7.
- Tomic leads on first-serve points won (74.6% vs 68.5%) and total points won (51.3% vs 50.2%) over the same hard-court window.
- Sun's last 15 include straight-set losses to No. 490 Binda and No. 456 Cui, plus a 2-6 0-6 loss to No. 102 Safiullin on 24 September.
- Tomic's two recent defeats were tight: 9-13 in games to Sun, 12-14 to No. 188 Kotov.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets run slightly longer than the 9.5 line on average.
- Tomic's second set averages 9.8 total games; Sun's averages 10.13.
- Sun has three second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches, Tomic two.
- Second sets in the sample average about 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening-set game totals for both players sit marginally above the 9.5 line on average.
- Tomic's opening set averages 9.67 total games; Sun's averages 9.87.
- Both players' combined first-set average sits just above the 9.5 line.
- Tomic has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sun's longer matches nudge the combined game average slightly above the line.
- Tomic's matches average 22.6 total games, Sun's average 24.3.
- Sun's last six matches averaged about 25.5 games.
- Sun's average match duration is 126.5 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Across both players' recent hard-court samples the large majority of matches finished in two sets.
- Tomic's 15 hard-court matches produced 10 straight-set results (six 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses).
- Sun's 15 hard-court matches produced 9 straight-set results (three 2-0 wins, six 0-2 losses).
- Combined, only 11 of the 30 sampled matches went to a deciding set.
- Tomic's average sets per match is 2.33, Sun's 2.40.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's second-set record is clearly the stronger of the two across this hard-court window.
- Tomic is 10-5 in second sets on hard; Sun is 6-9.
- Tomic's second-set average is 5.4 games won to 4.4 lost.
- Sun's second-set average is 4.87 games won to 5.27 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's slightly stronger serve and Sun's poor first-set record give Tomic a small edge in the opening set.
- Tomic is 7-8 in opening sets on hard; Sun is 6-9.
- Sun has lost the first set in 9 of 15 matches, with only one first-set tiebreak.
- Tomic's total points won (51.3%) is marginally ahead of Sun's (50.2%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in fewer than a third of both players' recent matches.
- Tomic has had a tiebreak in 4 of 15 hard-court matches, Sun in 5 of 15.
- Across 30 matches and 71 sets, only 9 sets reached a tiebreak.
- Tomic's average match lasts 97.9 minutes and ends in 2.33 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates, keeping the combined total under the line on average.
- Tomic averages 1.7 double faults per match, Sun 1.4, a combined 3.1.
- Tomic's double-fault count is 26 across 15 matches; Sun's is 21.
- Both players' combined average sits below the 3.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate falls just short of the 12.5 line over both players' hard-court samples.
- Combined ace average across both players is 12.0 per match.
- Sun averages 4.1 aces per match across 15 hard-court matches.
- Tomic's matches average only 2.33 sets, limiting ace exposure.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 12.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Bernard Tomic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#314Fajing Sun 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#839Rigele Te 7-6(3) 7-6(3)#188Pavel Kotov 6-3 6-4#490Alexandr Binda

6-3 6-2#342Jake Delaney

6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#234Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#313Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#408Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#136Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#338Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

Fajing Sun

8W 7L

6-2 6-0#102Roman Safiullin 6-4 7-5#182Bernard Tomic

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#270Matthew Dellavedova

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#490Alexandr Binda

7-5 3-6 7-5#179Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-4#456Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#212Chun Hsin Tseng

6-0 7-5#821Hanyi Liu

6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#346Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#249Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#419Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-3 7-6(4)#151Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-1#419Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#335Mees Rottgering

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Fajing SunSunFS

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In63.7%+2.3pp66.0%

1st Serve Won74.6%+6.1pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+7.5pp53.7%

Aces / Match7.9+3.84.1

Double Faults / Match1.70.3 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.6%+0.9pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted38.7%+0.8pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+2.3pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.1pp50.2%

Serve · 2–3

63.7%1st Serve In+2.3pp66.0%

74.6%1st Serve Won+6.1pp68.5%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+7.5pp53.7%

7.9Aces / Match+3.84.1

1.7Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

38.6%Return Pts Won+0.9pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

38.7%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp37.9%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.2%