AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Zdenek Kolar #156Czechia2Olle Wallin #407Sweden0

Sets 6-3 · 7-5Tue 8 Sept 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZdenek Kolar · 251 places

Zdenek Kolar

Czechia

Czech right-hander, age 29, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 111 on 13 June 2022. His recent official ITF activity shows substantially more clay than hard-court matches in 2026.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #111 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Olle Wallin is in much better form than Zdenek Kolar, especially on clay, and his strong serve gives him a clear edge.

Back Wallin to win at odds around 2.60, which offers excellent value given his estimated 62% win probability.

Context

Wallin, 414th, has built a 22-11 clay record in 2026 and is coming off two straight wins in Tulln qualifying. Kolar, 175th, has a long clay history but is currently struggling.
Wallin's recent clay results include wins over Roberto Carballes Baena and Lorenzo Giustino, while Kolar has lost to lower-ranked opponents like Oriol Roca Batalla and Raul Brancaccio. This form gap gives Wallin a clear edge on paper, though Kolar's higher ranking and experience could still matter.
- Wallin's last 15 clay matches: 10 wins, 4 losses (71.4% win rate).
- Kolar's last 15 clay matches: 4 wins, 9 losses (30.8% win rate).
- Wallin beat Roberto Carballes Baena (rank 209) and Lorenzo Giustino (rank 201) in July.
- Kolar lost to Oriol Roca Batalla (rank 346) and Raul Brancaccio (rank 224) in recent weeks.
Wallin's 191 cm frame helps him generate more free points on serve, and his first-serve percentage is similar to Kolar's.
Wallin's superior serving numbers should give him more hold security and pressure Kolar's return game. Kolar's lower ace count and first-serve win rate suggest he will need to work harder to hold serve, especially if Wallin can attack his second serve.
- Wallin clay: 5.9 aces per match, 72.7% first-serve points won.
- Kolar clay: 1.7 aces per match, 60.1% first-serve points won.
- Wallin's first-serve percentage is 60.0%, Kolar's is 63.0%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Wallin's superior recent form and clay-specific performance give him a clear edge over Kolar.
- Wallin last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Kolar 4-11 (26.7%)
- Wallin clay last 14 record 10-4 (71.4%), Kolar clay last 13 record 4-9 (30.8%)
- Wallin total points won 51.1% vs Kolar 47.0% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlle WallinEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline rallies and Wallin's tendency to play longer matches support a higher game total.
- Wallin average match duration 113 min, Kolar 93 min in last 15
- Wallin clay matches average 22.5 games, Kolar 20.8 games
- Both players have multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player dominates early, leading to competitive opening sets.
- Wallin first set average 9.8 games in last 15
- Kolar first set average 9.2 games in last 15
- Both have first sets decided by 6-4 or 7-5 frequently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's strong serving and high first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opener.
- Wallin first set win conversion career 92%, Kolar 87%
- Wallin recent clay first serve points won 72.7% vs Kolar 60.1%
- Wallin has won first set in 8 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOlle WallinEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's strong serve should push the combined ace count over the line.
- Wallin averages 5.7 aces per match in last 15, Kolar 1.7
- Wallin clay average 5.9 aces per match
- Combined expected aces around 7.4, with Wallin capable of higher
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates suggest a total above 5.5 is likely.
- Kolar averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15
- Wallin averages 2.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 6.3 double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Olle Wallin has been highly reliable when projected to win

Olle Wallin has fulfilled 8 of 8 recent win predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 63.1%, with an expected 5.1 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. All eight matches resulted in wins, with no losses or draws.

Recent evidence for Olle Wallin8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-1#176Roberto Carballes Baena

BetBugsOlle Wallin to win·62%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-1#176Roberto Carballes Baena

Olle Wallin to win

62%probability

Olle Wallin won

Matched

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-1#201Lorenzo Giustino

BetBugsOlle Wallin to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-1#201Lorenzo Giustino

Olle Wallin to win

62%probability

Olle Wallin won

Matched

27 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-0#455Matthew William Donald

BetBugsOlle Wallin to win·62%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#386Olle Wallin2-0#455Matthew William Donald

Olle Wallin to win

62%probability

Olle Wallin won

Matched

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#384Olle Wallin2-1—Vincent Dullinger

BetBugsOlle Wallin to win·65%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#384Olle Wallin2-1—Vincent Dullinger

Olle Wallin to win

65%probability

Olle Wallin won

Matched

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#709Samir Hamza Reguig0-2#447Olle Wallin

BetBugsOlle Wallin to win·65%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#709Samir Hamza Reguig0-2#447Olle Wallin

Olle Wallin to win

65%probability

Olle Wallin won

Matched

Previous match context available

Zdenek Kolar

4W 11L

6-1 6-1#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-1 6-4#162Borna Gojo

6-4 6-4#224Raul Brancaccio

6-2 4-6 6-3#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 6-2#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

4-6 6-3 6-4#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#160Taro Daniel

7-5 6-0#412Stefan Palosi

6-3 6-3#145Tom Gentzsch

4-6 6-4 6-3#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#614Lukas Pokorny

6-3 6-1#899Jason Jung

7-5 6-1#189Lautaro Midon

6-4 7-6(4)#236Sumit Nagal

6-4 6-3#790Ilya Snitari

Olle Wallin

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-4#369Norbert Gombos 7-5 6-2—Matthias Ujvary 6-4 3-6 6-4#424Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#894Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini 5-7 6-2 6-3#406Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#809Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

6-1 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 7-5#76Jan Choinski

6-3 1-6 6-1#209Roberto Carballes Baena

3-6 6-3 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(9) 6-3#443Matthew William Donald

4-6 6-2 6-2—Vincent Dullinger

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#75Valentin Royer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ZKZdenek KolarKolar

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Olle WallinWallinOW

Olle Wallin carries the stronger recent form — Zdenek Kolar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.7%+2.8pp59.9%

1st Serve Won59.6%+12.3pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+2.4pp46.2%

Aces / Match1.7+4.05.7

Double Faults / Match3.50.7 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+1.8pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.9%+1.7pp39.2%

Break Pts Saved48.5%+15.1pp63.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.0%+4.1pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

62.7%1st Serve In+2.8pp59.9%

59.6%1st Serve Won+12.3pp71.9%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp46.2%

1.7Aces / Match+4.05.7

3.5Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+1.8pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

40.9%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp39.2%

48.5%Break Pts Saved+15.1pp63.6%

Points · 0–1

47.0%Total Pts Won+4.1pp51.1%