Olle Wallin #386Sweden22 – 1Roberto Carballes Baena #176Spain1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50

The read

Wallin's superior recent form (12-3 overall, 80% win rate) and stronger return game (45.1% return points won vs 39.6%) give him a clear edge on clay, despite Carballes Baena's experience.

• Wallin last15 overall record 12-3 (80%) vs Carballes Baena 9-6 (60%)
• Wallin last15 clay record 12-3, Carballes Baena last13 clay 8-5 (61.5%)
• Wallin last15 total points won 54.1% vs Carballes Baena 51.2%
• Wallin last15 return points won 45.1% vs Carballes Baena 39.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently go to three sets and average over 22 games per match in recent windows, making Over 21.5 games likely in a competitive clay-court encounter.

• Wallin last15 average games per match 22.4, Carballes Baena 22.7
• Both players have 3-set matches in 6 of last 15 (Wallin) and 7 of last 15 (Carballes Baena)
• Wallin last15 clay average duration 107 min, Carballes Baena 116.7 min

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Wallin's superior games-won percentage and average margin of +1.5 games per match in recent form support a handicap cover, though Carballes Baena's competitiveness keeps confidence low.

• Wallin last15 average games won per match 13.3, Carballes Baena 11.8
• Wallin last15 games won% 59.2% vs Carballes Baena 51.9%
• Wallin has covered -1.5 games in 10 of last 15 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

High frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent windows (40%+ each) and their competitive clay-court styles make Over 2.5 sets a strong possibility.

• Wallin last15 3-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%), Carballes Baena 7 of 15 (47%)
• Carballes Baena last15 deciding set win rate 52% career, Wallin 62% career
• Both players have shown resilience in recent clay matches with multiple comebacks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Wallin's career first-set conversion is high, but recent pattern of slow starts (lost first set in 3 of last 5) tempers confidence; still, his overall return edge should help him edge the opener.

• Wallin last15 first set win conversion 92% career, but recent form shows 3 of last 5 matches lost first set
• Carballes Baena last15 first set win rate ~53% (8 of 15 matches)
• Wallin last15 break points converted 47% vs Carballes Baena 50.5%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Wallin's high ace count (5.3 per match) alone pushes the combined total near the line, and Carballes Baena contributes enough to expect Over 7.5 aces.

• Wallin last15 aces per match 5.3, Carballes Baena 2.3
• Combined average aces per match 7.6 in last15 windows
• Wallin's serve is a weapon on clay (71.9% first serve points won)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average is 4.1, slightly below the 4.5 line, and neither player is prone to excessive double faults on clay.

• Wallin last15 double faults per match 2.2, Carballes Baena 1.9
• Combined average double faults 4.1 per match in last15 windows
• Both players have moderate double fault rates on clay