ItalyGenoa - ItalyRET

Predictions graded

Franco Agamenone #285Italy0Matej Dodig #257Croatia2

Sets 3-6 · 0-4Tue 8 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 28 places

Franco Agamenone

Italy

Agamenone, 33, is the right-hander in this matchup and lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 108 in August 2022.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #108 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Matej Dodig is in strong form with an 11-4 record on clay, while Franco Agamenone has struggled at 5-10.

Dodig is a heavy favorite, but the odds are too short for value; consider Dodig -3.5 games or over 21.5 total games.

Context

Dodig, 21, is ranked 254 and has won 11 of his last 15 matches, with a strong clay record this season.
Dodig's current form is clearly better than Agamenone's, who has lost four of his last five. Dodig's recent wins include a straight-sets victory over Mili Poljicak and a three-set comeback against Henry Bernet, showing he can handle pressure. Agamenone's only win in that stretch came against Jack Loge, ranked 450, and he has struggled against higher-ranked opponents.
- Dodig's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3%), Agamenone's: 5-10 (33.3%).
- Dodig has won his last four matches, all on clay, including a 6-2 6-3 win over Mili Poljicak.
- Agamenone has lost four of his last five, with his only win against Jack Loge (ranked 450).
Agamenone, 33, is the older player and has a career win percentage of 57.4%, but his recent form has dipped.
The H2H gives Agamenone a psychological edge, but it is a single match from 2025 and may not reflect current levels. Dodig has improved significantly since then, as shown by his 11-4 record in the last 15 matches compared to Agamenone's 5-10.
- H2H: Agamenone defeated Dodig 7-6(5) 2-6 6-0 on clay in May 2025.
- Dodig's current ranking (254) is higher than Agamenone's (291), and Dodig has been in better form recently.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Matej Dodig

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's recent form and clay results are significantly stronger than Agamenone's, giving him a clear edge in this matchup.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Matej Dodig

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's superior recent form and higher first-set win rate make him the likely winner of the opening set.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Matej Dodig 2-0

1.55fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

The model estimate of 45% is significantly below the implied probability of 64.5%, indicating no value on this selection.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Dodig's recent form and clay results are significantly stronger than Agamenone's, giving him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Last 15 overall record: Dodig 11-4 (73.3%) vs Agamenone 5-10 (33.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: Dodig 11-4 vs Agamenone 5-10
- Dodig last 5: 4 wins, including 6-3 6-0 over Nikles and 6-2 6-3 over Poljicak
- Agamenone last 5: 1 win, 4 losses, most recent 7-5 6-3 loss to Giunta
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Agamenone's tendency to play long matches and Dodig's competitive recent matches suggest a total above 21.5 games.
- Agamenone last 15 average total games per match: 26.8
- Dodig last 15 average total games per match: 22.1
- Agamenone's matches often go to three sets (8 of last 15 went to deciding set)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve.
- Agamenone's average first set total games in last 15: 10.1
- Dodig's average first set total games in last 15: 9.3
- Both players have had close first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's dominant recent wins and Agamenone's struggles suggest Dodig can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Dodig's average games won per match in last 15: 12.1
- Agamenone's average games won per match in last 15: 12.6
- Dodig's recent wins have been by margins of 6+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatej Dodig -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Dodig's superior recent form and higher first-set win rate make him the likely winner of the opening set.
- Dodig first set win rate in last 15: 10 of 15 matches (66.7%)
- Agamenone first set win rate in last 15: 5 of 15 matches (33.3%)
- Dodig has won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's strong serving and Agamenone's lower ace count still combine to make over 8.5 aces likely.
- Dodig averages 6.2 aces per match in last 15
- Agamenone averages 2.0 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 8.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Agamenone's higher double fault rate and Dodig's moderate rate make over 4.5 double faults probable.
- Agamenone averages 3.3 double faults per match in last 15
- Dodig averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' tiebreak frequency make a tiebreak likely.
- Agamenone has played a tiebreak in 6 of last 15 matches
- Dodig has played a tiebreak in 5 of last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win rates above 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Matej Dodig has been reliable when projected to win

Matej Dodig has fulfilled 3 of 5 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 58.2%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly outperformed expectation. The current probability of 72% is above his historical range of 55-62%, indicating stronger confidence than in past matches.

Recent evidence for Matej Dodig5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

11 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

10 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·55%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

55%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

8 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

62%probability

Carlos Sanchez Jover won

Missed

13 May·Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Missed

13 May 2026

Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

August Holmgren won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 2-6 6-0Franco Agamenone#291vMatej Dodig#254May 19, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Franco Agamenone

5W 10L

7-5 6-3#422Massimo Giunta

4-6 6-2 7-6(2)#313Radu Mihai Papoe

7-6(0) 5-7 6-4#450Jack Loge

6-3 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

6-7(4) 6-4 7-5#235Alex Barrena

7-6(3) 3-6 6-3#224Raul Brancaccio

7-5 7-5#324Duje Ajdukovic

6-3 3-6 7-5#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#367Francesco Forti

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

7-5 7-6(2)#497Radu Albot

6-2 6-3#217Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-2 6-3#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-2#257Andrej Nedic

Matej Dodig

11W 4L

6-3 6-0#424Johan Nikles 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3#318Max Schoenhaus 6-7(1) 7-6(3) 7-5#428Henry Bernet 6-2 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

2-2 ret.#578Saba Purtseladze

6-4 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#444Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#448Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#838Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

5-7 6-4 6-2#140Hugo Dellien

6-4 3-6 6-3#215Henri Squire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFranco AgamenoneAgamenone

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Matej DodigDodigMD

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Franco Agamenone's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In66.0%+2.7pp63.3%

1st Serve Won63.1%+12.8pp75.9%

2nd Serve Won43.0%+11.2pp54.2%

Aces / Match2.0+4.26.2

Double Faults / Match3.31.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.4%+2.5pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.5%+2.7pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+1.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+3.9pp52.4%

Serve · 1–4

66.0%1st Serve In+2.7pp63.3%

63.1%1st Serve Won+12.8pp75.9%

43.0%2nd Serve Won+11.2pp54.2%

2.0Aces / Match+4.26.2

3.3Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

40.4%Return Pts Won+2.5pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.5%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp43.8%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+3.9pp52.4%