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New England RevolutionInter Miami

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 00:002 Nov, 00:00

8Probabilities6Priced6Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Second against third in MLS, with Miami having won four of the last five meetings — all with both teams scoring — and New England 11W-2D-3L at home in the league.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are the likeliest shapes, but at 1.30 apiece, along with 1.17 for a first-half goal, 1.48 draw-or-Miami, 1.50 over 8.5 corners and 1.38 for New England's corners, the quotes ask for more than the records support. No price here is worth backing.

Context

Miami's road record and the head-to-head history genuinely shape the game, but both squads list attacking absentees and the recent splits are six-match samples, so conditions are only moderately altered from a neutral read.

Inter Miami have had the better of the series since 2024, winning four of five meetings, the most recent a 1-1 draw in April 2026.
Both teams scored in all five meetings and four went past 2.5 goals, including 6-2 and 4-1 Miami wins. That points to goals at both ends rather than a clean sheet for either side. The 1-1 draw in April 2026 is the caution: the series has not always produced a winner.
- 25 April 2026: Inter Miami 1-1 New England Revolution in MLS, with both teams scoring.
- 4 October 2025: Inter Miami 4-1 New England; 9 July 2025: New England 1-2 Inter Miami.
- 20 October 2024: Inter Miami 6-2 New England; 27 April 2024: New England 1-4 Inter Miami.
- All five meetings in the record produced goals for both teams.
New England's home form is the reason they sit second in the league table with 58 points from 32 matches.
Home form is why New England sit second on 58 points and it is the clearest counter to Miami's head-to-head edge. Miami's own road record, 9W-3D-4L with 32 goals in 16 away matches, is strong enough that this reads as a close game. Sixteen matches is a full season split rather than a short burst.
- Standings at 1 November 2026: New England second in MLS with 58 points from 32 matches.
- New England home record 11W-2D-3L in 16, 30 goals for and 18 against.
- Inter Miami away record 9W-3D-4L in 16, 32 goals for and 27 against.
Inter Miami's season-long away record is strong, but their away results over the past two months have been much harder work.
That sits awkwardly against the season-long road line of 9W-3D-4L with 32 goals in 16 away matches. The six-match window is short, so it is not evidence of a collapse. It does mean Miami's case rests more on the season record and the head-to-head history than on their latest travels.
- Inter Miami away split, six matches from 16 August to 24 October 2026: 1W-2D-3L, 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
- No clean sheet in those six away matches, with both teams scoring in five of them.
New England won 3-2 at home to the New York Red Bulls in their most recent match in the record.
It is the most recent match in the record, and New England won it while conceding twice the shot volume. Three goals from four shots on target is not a rate that repeats every week, and Miami will test whether the home side can keep winning on those terms. The result still counts; the numbers underneath it are the caution.
- 28 October 2026: New England 3-2 New York Red Bulls in MLS, with 9 shots to 20 and 4 on target to 11.
- New England trailed the corner count 2-6 and led 1-0 at half-time before a four-goal second half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 85.5%

−9.5ppshort

Both sides regularly create and allow chances before the break, so at least one first-half goal is the likely shape.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.30fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 76.9%

−10.9ppshort

Both teams concede regularly and the head-to-head pattern points to each side finding the net.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 76.9%

−12.9ppshort

Both attacks are productive and both defences allow goals, making a three-goal match the central expectation.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Inter Miami

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

−5.6ppshort

Miami's away form and head-to-head edge make them the more likely side to avoid defeat.

Corners Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams' corner numbers and New England's home pressure point to a combined total above a modest 8.5 line.

Home CornersUncertainty band: Strong lean

New England Revolution over 3.5

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

−2.5ppshort

New England generate regular home corner volume and Miami's away matches allow opponents corners.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Miami's away form and head-to-head edge make them the more likely side to avoid defeat.
- Inter Miami have won four of the last five head-to-heads.
- Inter Miami away record is 9W-3D-4L in 16 matches.
- Inter Miami have scored 32 goals in 16 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Inter MiamiMarket price1.48Estimated chance62%

Goals3 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both sides regularly create and allow chances before the break, so at least one first-half goal is the likely shape.
- New England average 0.87 first-half goals for and 0.67 against over 15 matches.
- Inter Miami average 1.07 first-half goals for and 0.60 against over 15 matches.
- Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding records that point to early goal threat.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.17Estimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams concede regularly and the head-to-head pattern points to each side finding the net.
- New England both scored in 10 of 15 matches.
- Inter Miami both scored in 11 of 15 matches.
- All five recent head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.30Estimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both attacks are productive and both defences allow goals, making a three-goal match the central expectation.
- New England matches average 3.27 total goals (1.73 for, 1.53 against).
- Inter Miami matches average 3.67 total goals (2.13 for, 1.53 against).
- Four of the last five head-to-heads produced at least three goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.30Estimated chance64%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' corner numbers and New England's home pressure point to a combined total above a modest 8.5 line.
- New England average 5.53 corners for and 5.87 against over 15 matches.
- Inter Miami average 3.50 corners for and 4.29 against over 14 matches.
- New England's home corner volume gives the match a solid base above 8.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Market price1.50Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
New England generate regular home corner volume and Miami's away matches allow opponents corners.
- New England average 5.83 corners at home over 6 matches.
- Inter Miami concede 5.5 corners per away match over 6 matches.
- New England's home corner average is well above 3.5.
BetBugs · Home CornersNew England Revolution over 3.5Market price1.38Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's card rate is high and a competitive top-three clash should add to the total.
- Inter Miami average 2.62 yellow cards per match over 13 matches.
- New England average 1.60 yellow cards per match over 15 matches.
- Inter Miami's away split shows 2.67 yellows per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's recent shot-on-target volume points to a high combined count.
- New England matches average 11.33 total shots on target (5.8 for, 5.53 against).
- Inter Miami matches average 9.72 total shots on target (5.36 for, 4.36 against).
- Both teams' shot-on-target averages are moderate rather than explosive.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

D1-1Inter MiamivNew England RevolutionApr 25, 2026MAJ

L4-1Inter MiamivNew England RevolutionOct 4, 2025MAJ

L1-2New England RevolutionvInter MiamiJul 9, 2025MAJ

L6-2Inter MiamivNew England RevolutionOct 20, 2024MAJ

L1-4New England RevolutionvInter MiamiApr 27, 2024MAJ

Inter Miami unbeaten in 5 meetings4.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	32	18	4	10	54-44	58	WWWWL
3	Inter Miami Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	32	15	11	6	75-55	56	DLWWW