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FredrikstadRosenborg

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:0031 Oct, 15:00

7Probabilities5Priced5Edges78%Strongest

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth-placed Rosenborg visit a Fredrikstad side winless in five league games but beaten only three times at home all season.

Rosenborg are the likelier winners, yet the draw-or-away double chance at 1.25 asks for more than the form justifies. The one price worth backing is Rosenborg to score two or more goals at 1.67.

Context

A top-four visitor with a lopsided recent record in this fixture against a mid-table host whose home form is far better than their overall run, plus four Rosenborg absentees and one doubtful player.

Rosenborg have had the better of this fixture across three seasons, and the July meeting was the most one-sided of the sequence.
Three of the last five meetings were settled by a single goal or drawn, so the sequence points to Rosenborg avoiding defeat more than to another four-goal margin. Fredrikstad's two home meetings in that run produced a 0-2 loss and a 2-2 draw.
- 27 July 2026, Eliteserien: Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
- 28 May 2025, Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 0-2 Rosenborg.
- 5 April 2025: Rosenborg 1-0 Fredrikstad; 2024 meetings finished 2-2 and 1-1.
The home split is comfortably stronger than Fredrikstad's overall 8-5-11 record across 24 league games.
Fredrikstad's season-long defensive numbers look poor — 41 conceded in 24 games — but only 12 of those came in 11 home matches. That makes a heavy away win harder to project than Rosenborg's league position alone suggests.
- Standings at 31 October 2026: Fredrikstad home record 5W-3D-3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 11 games.
- Overall record after 24 games: 8W-5D-11L, 29 scored, 41 conceded.
Rosenborg's 46-goal season has been built mainly at home, where they have taken seven of their 12 league wins.
The away numbers cut against the idea of a routine Rosenborg win at Fredrikstad stadion: 17 conceded in 12 road games and six defeats. Their recent away league results are stronger than that season split, with 3-0 wins at Sarpsborg and Ham-Kam in October.
- Standings at 31 October 2026: Rosenborg away record 5W-1D-6L, 18 goals for, 17 against in 12 games.
- Rosenborg home record: 7W-3D-2L, 28 goals for, 14 against in 12 games.
Both sides' corner counts lean toward their opponents' totals being high, from different directions.
Fredrikstad give away nearly seven corners a game, while Rosenborg generate seven of their own, so the combined count is the natural target in this fixture. Corner counts are volatile match to match, as a six-corner showing in the Viking game illustrates.
- Fredrikstad corners: 4.17 per match over 12 tracked games; opponent corners: 6.92 over 12.
- Rosenborg corners: 7.0 per match over 11 tracked games; opponent corners: 5.18 over 11.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Rosenborg

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Rosenborg are the stronger side and have avoided defeat in this fixture recently, so the draw-or-away double chance is the main result call.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 63.7%

−2.7ppshort

Both teams' recent matches and Rosenborg's away scoring point to at least three goals.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

−4.0ppshort

Both teams have enough first-half scoring and conceding evidence to expect an early goal.

Corners Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

−5.4ppshort

Both teams concede plenty of corners, pointing to a high combined corner count.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Rosenborg are the stronger side and have avoided defeat in this fixture recently, so the draw-or-away double chance is the main result call.
- Rosenborg are 4th with 40 points, Fredrikstad 11th with 29.
- Rosenborg's away league record is 6 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in the last five head-to-heads, including 4-0 and 2-0 wins.
- Fredrikstad's league form is L-L-D-D-D and they lost 5-1 at Molde last time.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or RosenborgMarket price1.25Estimated chance75%

Goals3 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' recent matches and Rosenborg's away scoring point to at least three goals.
- Rosenborg average 3.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per competitive match.
- Fredrikstad's overall matches average 3.27 total goals.
- Rosenborg's last three league away wins were 3-0, 3-0 and 3-1.
- Fredrikstad's recent league games include 5-1 and 2-3 defeats.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.57Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Rosenborg's away scoring rate and recent head-to-head wins make two goals a reasonable target.
- Rosenborg average 3.5 goals per away match in the available split.
- They scored three in each of their last three league away wins.
- Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 4-0 in July and won 2-0 at Fredrikstad in 2025.
- Fredrikstad conceded five at Molde in their last league match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalRosenborg over 1.5Market price1.67Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams have enough first-half scoring and conceding evidence to expect an early goal.
- Rosenborg average 1.21 first-half goals and concede 0.29 in the first half.
- Fredrikstad average 0.93 first-half goals and concede 0.87.
- Rosenborg scored in the first half in three of their last four league matches.
- Fredrikstad's last three league matches produced first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance78%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both teams concede plenty of corners, pointing to a high combined corner count.
- Fredrikstad average 4.17 corners and concede 6.92 per match.
- Rosenborg average 7.0 corners and concede 5.18.
- Recent match totals include 14, 15 and 11 corners.
- Both teams' opponents average at least 5.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.53Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent league matches for both sides have often reached four cards, making the over a marginal call.
- Rosenborg matches average 3.64 yellow cards.
- Fredrikstad matches average 2.83 yellow cards.
- Recent Rosenborg league games produced five, five and six yellow cards.
- Recent Fredrikstad league games produced three, five and five yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' recent shot volumes are near or above the line, with Rosenborg especially busy.
- Fredrikstad average 11.75 shots for and 15.92 against.
- Rosenborg average 17.91 shots for and 12.36 against.
- Recent totals include Fredrikstad's 32 and 37 shots and Rosenborg's 33, 34 and 31.
- Sandefjord-Rosenborg had only 29 shots, showing the line is close.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 29.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Fredrikstad: 2/5 recent goals projections matched

2 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Fredrikstad matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Fredrikstad5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien

Rosenborg4-0

Fredrikstad

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→4 total goals

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Eliteserien

Rosenborg4-0

Fredrikstad

Over 2.5 goals