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Predictions graded

Molde5Fredrikstad1

HT 3–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–0100%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 19–14On targetOn target 10–6CornersCorners 5–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Molde's home scoring against Fredrikstad's away defence makes a home win the likeliest result, but 1.38 asks too much of a side missing six players.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 and Molde to score twice at 1.33 are similarly demanding, and both teams to score at 1.57 offers little either way. Fredrikstad to score at least once at 1.45 is the one quoted price worth the risk.

Context

Fredrikstad have recent away evidence at this ground, having won 2-1 there in September 2025.
The recent meetings swing wildly: 0-0, 6-1 to Molde, a 0-0 cup tie, 4-2 to Fredrikstad and 2-1 to Fredrikstad. The last league game at this venue went the away side's way, the clearest counterweight to Molde's strong home record. It is one match from a year ago, but it shows Fredrikstad have found a way here.
- Molde 1-2 Fredrikstad, Eliteserien, 13 September 2025
- Fredrikstad 4-2 Molde, Eliteserien, 12 July 2025
- Molde 6-1 Fredrikstad, Eliteserien, 14 September 2024
Molde's home attacking output is the backbone of their case, with 30 goals in 12 home league games.
That was Molde's 12th home league game of the season and took their home tally to 30 goals. The shot count — 22 attempts and 13 on target against three for Start — describes heavy creation rather than a lucky haul. Start are not Fredrikstad, who have four clean sheets in 14 competitive matches, so a repeat is not automatic.
- Molde 6-1 Start, Eliteserien, 18 October 2026: 22 shots, 13 on target, 5 corners
- Molde home league record 2026: 12 games, 8W-1D-3L, 30 scored, 14 conceded
Fredrikstad concede heavily on the road but have scored at a steady rate away from home.
Only three of those 12 away games were won, and 24 goals conceded on the road is the number that shapes this fixture. Fredrikstad still scored twice at Viking on 17 October in a 3-2 defeat, so the away goal threat is real. The split supports Molde's scoring case more than it rules out a Fredrikstad goal.
- Fredrikstad away league record 2026: 12 games, 3W-2D-7L, 14 scored, 24 conceded
- Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad, Eliteserien, 17 October 2026
Fredrikstad's low away corner output puts most of the corner workload on Molde.
That gap is wide and it frames the 9.5 corner line: most of the supply would have to come from Molde, who average 6.33 corners. The sample is six away matches, and the most recent produced only six corners in total. Fredrikstad's 8-2 corner count at home to Tromso on 11 October shows they can also generate corners of their own.
- Fredrikstad away matches with corner data, 6 matches: 2.67 corners for, 8.83 against
- Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad, 17 October 2026: 0 corners to Viking's 6
- Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso, 11 October 2026: 8 corners to 2

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Molde

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

−17.5ppshort

Molde's strong home scoring and Fredrikstad's poor away defence point to a home win.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 72.5%

−5.5ppshort

Both sides' recent and venue splits point to a game with at least three goals.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 63.7%

−0.7ppshort

Fredrikstad's away scoring and Molde's habit of conceding one make both teams scoring likely.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Molde over 1.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

−5.2ppshort

Molde's home scoring volume and Fredrikstad's away concessions make two or more home goals the central case.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 85.5%

−8.5ppshort

Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding records that make an early goal more likely than not.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

−5.7ppshort

Both teams' corner totals sit above the 9.5 line on average, with Molde likely to dominate at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Molde's strong home scoring and Fredrikstad's poor away defence point to a home win.
- Molde are 3rd with 40 points and a home record of 8W-1D-3L, scoring 30 and conceding 14 in 12 home league games.
- Fredrikstad are 9th with 29 points and an away record of 3W-2D-7L, scoring 14 and conceding 24 in 12 away league games.
- Molde average 3.57 goals scored per competitive match; Fredrikstad away concede 2.00 per game.
- Fredrikstad's recent league form is L-D-D-D-L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMoldeEstimated chance55%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both sides' recent and venue splits point to a game with at least three goals.
- Molde's competitive matches average 3.57 goals for and 1.57 against; Fredrikstad's average 1.50 for and 1.21 against.
- Molde home games average 3.67 total goals (30 scored, 14 conceded in 12).
- Fredrikstad away games average 3.17 total goals (14 scored, 24 conceded in 12).
- Recent Molde matches include 6-1 and 2-2; Fredrikstad's last away was 2-3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Fredrikstad's away scoring and Molde's habit of conceding one make both teams scoring likely.
- Both teams scored in 11 of Molde's 14 competitive matches and in 7 of Fredrikstad's 14.
- In Molde's last six both teams scored in 4; in Fredrikstad's last six both scored in 5.
- Fredrikstad scored 14 goals in 12 away league games; Molde conceded 14 in 12 home league games.
- Molde conceded in 11 of 14 overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Molde's home scoring volume and Fredrikstad's away concessions make two or more home goals the central case.
- Molde score 3.57 goals per competitive match and 2.50 per home league game (30 in 12).
- Fredrikstad concede 2.00 per away league game (24 in 12).
- Molde scored 6 against Start in their latest home league match.
- Molde scored at least twice in five of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMolde over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Fredrikstad's modest but steady away scoring and Molde's regular concessions suggest they can get on the scoresheet.
- Fredrikstad scored 14 goals in 12 away league games (1.17 per game).
- Molde conceded 14 goals in 12 home league games (1.17 per game).
- Molde conceded in 11 of 14 competitive matches.
- Fredrikstad scored twice in their last away match at Viking.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFredrikstad over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding records that make an early goal more likely than not.
- Molde average 1.50 first-half goals for and 0.86 against; Fredrikstad average 0.79 for and 0.64 against.
- Molde's last six matches produced a first-half goal in five.
- Fredrikstad's first-half scoring rate is 0.79 across eight away-split matches.
- Molde's first-half scoring rate is 1.50 across 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance77%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit above the 9.5 line on average, with Molde likely to dominate at home.
- Molde average 6.33 corners for and 4.00 against; Fredrikstad average 4.08 for and 6.75 against.
- Combined corner averages are 10.33 in Molde matches and 10.83 in Fredrikstad matches.
- Fredrikstad away opponents average 8.83 corners; Molde home average 6.33 corners.
- Molde's last five league matches produced 11, 13, 16, 8 and 11 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages are comfortably below four and a half, so a quiet match is the base case.
- Molde average 2.33 yellow cards and their opponents 1.50; Fredrikstad average 1.67 and their opponents 1.25.
- Combined card averages are 3.83 in Molde matches and 2.92 in Fredrikstad matches.
- Both teams average under 0.2 red cards per match in the sample.
- Fredrikstad's last away at Viking produced five cards, showing the line can be crossed.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance62%