Orebro SK1Falkenbergs0

HT 1–0Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:05 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 9–9On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 2–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Falkenberg visit an Orebro side that has drawn 11 of 27 league games and scored just 11 goals in 13 at home.

Falkenberg avoiding defeat is the likeliest shape, and at 1.50 the draw-or-away double chance still offers something, as does Orebro under 1.5 goals at 1.67 and under 3.5 match goals at 1.43. Falkenberg to score at 1.25 and both teams to score at 1.60 do not.

Context

Orebro's home season has been built on low-scoring, often level games: 11 goals for in 13, with five draws. That makes a tight afternoon the natural baseline here. The exception came against this opponent, a 4-1 home win in October 2025, so the record is not airtight.
- Superettan 2026 standings: Orebro have 26 points from 27 matches, with 5 wins, 11 draws and 11 defeats.
- Home split: 13 matches, 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, 11 goals for and 16 against.
Falkenberg's away form is the backbone of a season that has them second on 51 points: seven wins from 13 and 28 goals scored. They arrive as the likelier scorers against a home side with 11 goals in 13 home games. The away defence is less imposing, with 21 conceded on the road.
- Superettan 2026 standings: Falkenberg are 2nd with 51 points from 27 matches (15 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats).
- Away split: 13 matches, 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 28 goals for and 21 against.
The teams’ most recent documented meeting, on 14 June, was level until Falkenberg’s 89th-minute equaliser. That gives this return fixture a concrete recent head-to-head reference and highlights how closely the previous match was decided. It does not establish a current selection, tactical, or availability condition for the October match.
- Ahmed Yasin put Örebro SK ahead in the 34th minute, with Antonio Yakoub credited with the assist.
- Lion Beqiri equalised for Falkenberg in the 89th minute.
- The sides drew 1-1 on 14 June 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:09 · Europe/BucharestÖrebro tappade ledning sent – Falkenberg kvitteradewww.fotbollskanalen.se · 14 Jun 2026
The last meeting at Orebro, in October 2025, finished 4-1 to the home side. It is the only one of the last five encounters settled by more than one goal, the others finishing 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 1-2. It is a reminder that the low-scoring home read is not absolute.
- Orebro SK 4-1 Falkenbergs FF, Superettan, 5 October 2025.
- Other meetings in the record: 1-1 on 14 June 2026, Falkenberg 2-1 Orebro on 29 April 2025, Falkenberg 2-1 Orebro on 17 October 2020, Orebro 1-2 Falkenberg on 1 August 2020.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Falkenberg's much stronger season and away record make an away win or draw the clear result shape, with Orebro's draw habit covering the main alternative.
- Falkenberg sit 2nd on 51 points with a 7-2-4 away record; Orebro are 15th on 26 points.
- Orebro's home record is 3-5-5 with only 11 goals scored in 13 home matches.
- Orebro have drawn 11 of 27 league games, including 5 of 13 at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FalkenbergsEstimated chance74%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Orebro's home scoring is low and their recent home games have stayed at one goal or less.
- Orebro average 0.83 home goals in six tracked home matches, scoring four goals in total.
- Their last three home league games produced 1, 1 and 0 goals.
- Falkenberg concede 1.33 away goals per game in their away split.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonOrebro SK under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Falkenberg's away goal rate and Orebro's low home clean-sheet count make at least one away goal likely.
- Falkenberg average 1.5 away goals and scored 2, 2 and 1 in their three recent away matches.
- Orebro have only one clean sheet in six home matches in the home split.
- Falkenberg have scored 12 goals in 13 league matches in the tracked window.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFalkenbergs over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both the home and away splits point to a moderate-scoring game rather than a shootout.
- Orebro home matches average 2.0 total goals in the home split (0.83 for, 1.17 against).
- Falkenberg away matches average 2.83 total goals (1.5 for, 1.33 against).
- Orebro's last three home totals were 2, 2 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams' tracked matches have high both-score rates, and Falkenberg's away games usually include goals for both sides.
- Orebro's matches have seen both teams score in 10 of 14 tracked games, including 4 of 6 at home.
- Falkenberg's matches have seen both teams score in 10 of 13, including 5 of 6 away.
- Falkenberg concede 1.33 away goals per game and Orebro have scored in two of their last three home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Both teams' first-half profiles are low-scoring, especially Orebro at home, so three first-half goals is unlikely.
- Orebro's home split averages 0.5 first-half goals for and 0 first-half goals against.
- Falkenberg's away split averages 0.67 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- Orebro's last three home first halves were 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 2.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro fade after half-time and Falkenberg's away second-half scoring makes at least two second-half goals plausible.
- Orebro concede 1.21 second-half goals per game overall and 1.17 in the home split.
- Falkenberg score 0.83 second-half goals per away game.
- Orebro's last six second halves produced 3, 2, 3, 2, 2 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A 1-1 draw fits Orebro's draw-heavy home profile and Falkenberg's modest away scoring.
- Orebro have drawn 11 of 27 league games and 5 of 13 at home.
- The June meeting between the sides ended 1-1.
- Orebro's recent home draws include 1-1 against Ljungskile and United Nordic.
BetBugs · Correct ScorelostOrebro SK 1-1 FalkenbergsEstimated chance13%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' full-match corner totals sit around nine to ten, making 9+ corners a reasonable baseline.
- Orebro average 5.29 corners for and 4.14 against in seven tracked matches, a total of 9.43.
- Falkenberg average 4.14 for and 5.71 against in seven tracked matches, a total of 9.85.
- Recent Orebro matches produced corner totals of 11, 10, 13 and 14.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%