Motherwell0Heart of Midlothian2

HT 0–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 17–14On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Hearts sit third and Motherwell have lost five league games in a row, yet Hearts have won once in five away league games and played in Europe on Thursday.

Hearts should still avoid defeat, but the 1.38 draw-or-Hearts price asks plenty for that. Both teams to score — No at 2.38 is the one quoted price that holds up.

Context

Motherwell's home matches have been decided by fine margins: four clean sheets in seven, one game where both sides scored, and an average of 1.14 goals for and 1.29 against per home game. That record supports the case for one side failing to score on Sunday. The counterweight is that Motherwell also drew blanks in three home games, so a 1-0 either way fits as easily as a 0-0.
- Home split, tracked window 23 July to 11 October 2026: 7 home matches, both teams scored in 1.
- Motherwell kept 4 clean sheets in those 7 home matches.
- Home averages across the same 7 matches: 1.14 goals for, 1.29 goals against.
The season totals say Hearts are the stronger side: 5W 1D 3L, 20 scored and 15 conceded in nine league games. The away split says something else, with 13 goals conceded in five league away games and a single win. Motherwell's five straight league defeats explain why the visitors remain favoured, but the gap between Hearts' home and away numbers is the most revealing thing in the table.
- Premiership standings: Hearts 3rd, 9 games, 5W 1D 3L, 20 scored, 15 conceded, 16 points.
- Hearts away league record: 5 games, 1W 1D 3L, 7 scored, 13 conceded.
- Motherwell: 10th, 9 games, 2W 2D 5L, 11 scored, 16 conceded, 8 points, league form LLLLL.
Hearts had ten shots to Trabzonspor's eleven but just one on target to five, and were a goal down at half-time. The Thursday-to-Sunday turnaround is short, and this is a second consecutive away fixture. Rotation or heavy legs are plausible consequences, but no confirmed team news was available, so the effect on the XI remains unknown rather than assumed.
- 22 October 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Hearts, Europa Conference League, away.
- Half-time score 1-0 to Trabzonspor; Hearts had 10 shots and 1 on target, Trabzonspor 11 shots and 5 on target.
- Three Hearts players were booked in the match.
The scoreline is the outlier in Hearts' season: they had already scored 20 league goals before it and had conceded 15 across nine games including this one. They still generated 20 shots, but only five were on target against ten for Celtic. It is one result rather than a trend, though it does show how quickly an away game can get away from them.
- 18 October 2026: Celtic 7-1 Hearts, Premiership, away.
- Half-time score 5-1; Hearts had 20 shots, 5 on target; Celtic 18 shots, 10 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Heart of Midlothian

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

−7.5ppshort

Hearts are the stronger side overall, and Motherwell's five-game league losing run makes a home win less likely than the draw-or-away double chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

−5.7ppshort

Hearts' away games have been open and Motherwell's home matches sit close to the over-2.5 line.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Heart of Midlothian over 0.5

1.17fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 85.5%

−17.5ppshort

Hearts have found a goal in six of seven away matches, giving them a clear route to at least one at Fir Park.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Hearts' away first halves have been active, and both teams have first-half scoring data.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 8.5

1.45fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 69%

−13.0ppshort

Both sides' season corner numbers sit near ten per match, leaving over 8.5 as the better side of the line.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Hearts are the stronger side overall, and Motherwell's five-game league losing run makes a home win less likely than the draw-or-away double chance.
- Hearts sit 3rd with 16 points from 9 league games; Motherwell are 10th with 8.
- Motherwell's league form is LLLLL, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
- Hearts' away league record is only 1W 1D 3L, with 7 scored and 13 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Heart of MidlothianEstimated chance65%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Hearts' away games have been open and Motherwell's home matches sit close to the over-2.5 line.
- Hearts away matches average 4.14 total goals (1.43 for, 2.71 against).
- Motherwell home matches average 2.43 total goals.
- Three of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Motherwell's home games have been notably low on both teams scoring, with four clean sheets in seven.
- Motherwell home matches have seen both teams score only once in seven.
- Motherwell kept four clean sheets in seven home matches.
- Hearts away matches have seen both teams score in five of seven.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Hearts have found a goal in six of seven away matches, giving them a clear route to at least one at Fir Park.
- Hearts scored in 6 of 7 away matches, averaging 1.43 goals.
- Motherwell conceded in 3 of 7 home matches, keeping four clean sheets.
- Hearts average 4.69 shots on target overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHeart of Midlothian over 0.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Motherwell have scored in four of seven home games and face a Hearts away defense conceding 2.71 per game.
- Motherwell scored in 4 of 7 home matches, averaging 1.14 goals.
- Hearts away matches concede 2.71 goals per game.
- Hearts away matches have only one clean sheet in seven.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMotherwell over 0.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Hearts' away first halves have been active, and both teams have first-half scoring data.
- Motherwell's home first halves average 0.86 total goals (0.43 for, 0.43 against).
- Hearts' away first halves average 2.43 total goals (0.86 for, 1.57 against).
- Hearts overall average 0.93 first-half goals and concede 0.87.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' away games have averaged over five cards, and Motherwell's matches add enough disciplinary risk to clear 3.5.
- Hearts away matches average 2.0 own yellows and 2.83 opponent yellows.
- Motherwell overall matches average 1.58 own yellows and 1.42 opponent yellows, plus 0.6 reds per match combined.
- Hearts overall matches average 1.83 own yellows and 2.58 opponent yellows.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches sit around or above nine shots on target, with Hearts' away games just over the line.
- Motherwell matches average 10.0 shots on target combined (3.77 for, 6.23 against).
- Hearts matches average 8.9 shots on target combined (4.69 for, 4.23 against).
- Hearts away matches average 9.17 shots on target combined.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both sides' season corner numbers sit near ten per match, leaving over 8.5 as the better side of the line.
- Motherwell matches average 10.2 corners combined (4.08 for, 6.15 against).
- Hearts matches average 10.2 corners combined (5.31 for, 4.85 against).
- Both Motherwell home and Hearts away splits average 9.0 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%