Sheffield United1Derby County1

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 25–11On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 07:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Derby's patched-up defence visits Bramall Lane with the Championship's second-bottom record, against a Sheffield United side that has won only two of five at home.

Sheffield United should win, and 1.78 is a fair price to take. Under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score at 2.0, plus fewer than 10 corners at 2.3, carry smaller edges; 1.3 for a first-half goal does not.

Context

Travis had only just worked back into the side, captaining Derby against Stoke City on 17 October, so his absence removes the most established voice from the central midfield for a game Derby need to control away from home. With Alex Mowatt also rated doubtful in the same bulletin, the head coach may have to pair two less familiar midfielders at Bramall Lane. Captaincy and recent selection are the whole basis for that read, and Derby have shuffled that pair repeatedly this season, so the practical effect could be smaller than the label implies.
- Derby County's official update on 22 October marked captain Lewis Travis as unavailable among four first-team injury notes.
- BBC Sport Derby's team news for the Stoke City game on 17 October recorded Travis starting as captain in place of Alex Mowatt.
- L. Travis started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Mowatt started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Travis did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Eustace went into the week with Derby in the Championship's bottom three and local coverage openly asking whether a change was due, so the owner's position became part of the build-up to this fixture. A public vote of confidence from Dave Clowes, relayed by the head coach a day before kick-off, removes immediate dismissal noise and gives him room to make unpopular selection calls. It does not settle results: Derby's home defeat by Stoke City on 17 October came with 17 shots and 53% possession, which points to a finishing problem as much as an organisational one, and a single week of backing carries no tactical guarantee.
- BBC Sport Derby reported on 22 October that John Eustace said owner Dave Clowes remains firmly behind him after the pair met that week.
- The same interview covered Eustace's view on new signing Jack Robinson and on facing Sheffield United.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Robinson captained Sheffield United before leaving and joined Derby a week before this fixture, making him the most direct personal link between the two clubs and a player familiar with Bramall Lane. Derby's need was urgent rather than sentimental: The Star described the signing as cover during an ongoing defensive injury crisis, with Sondre Langås hurt in the midweek defeat at QPR. A free agent without competitive minutes this season is an unlikely instant starter in a Championship away XI, and the same outlet reported his availability was still open, so the reunion may amount to a place in the squad rather than a selection decision.
- The Star reported on 18 October that Derby had signed former Sheffield United defender Jack Robinson on a free transfer amid an ongoing defensive injury crisis.
- Danny Hall reported on 20 October that Robinson had discussed his move and the plan for his involvement at Bramall Lane.
- The Star reported on 21 October that it remained to be seen whether Robinson would be available for the trip.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Wilder's pairing of Phillips and Oliver Arblaster produced the away win that ended Sheffield United's run of defeats, and the manager's public praise two days before this fixture points to the same midfield starting at Bramall Lane. Phillips is also being handled carefully: he was left out of the squad for the Lincoln City game on 10 October with a minor training issue and only returned to the bench at Portsmouth, so his availability remains a live variable. One strong performance in a different match-up is a thin basis for expecting a repeat, which makes the confirmed starting role more useful than any projected output.
- Sheffield United's official post on 17 October named Kalvin Phillips as the club's player of the match after the win at Bristol City.
- The Star reported on 18 October that Chris Wilder was delighted with the performances of Kalvin Phillips and Oliver Arblaster at Bristol City.
- Sheffield United's official team news on 10 October said Phillips was not risked against Lincoln City following a minor issue in training.
- K. Phillips started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Sheffield United have the stronger season record and face a Derby side with major defensive absences.
- Sheffield United are 6W-3D-5L in 14 competitive matches; Derby are 1W-3D-8L in 12.
- Sheffield United's home record is 2W-1D-2L with 7 goals for and 6 against in 5.
- Derby's away record is 1W-1D-3L with 5 goals for and 10 against in 5.
- Derby are 23rd with 6 points and have conceded 20 goals in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSheffield UnitedEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is limited for both teams, making a level half plausible.
- Sheffield United average 0.71 second-half goals for.
- Derby average 0.33 second-half goals for.
- Derby average 0.75 second-half goals against.
- Both teams have had recent second halves with one or no goals.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sheffield United have the stronger season record and face a Derby side with major defensive absences. Both teams have drawn about a quarter of their matches, so a tight game is plausible.
- Sheffield United are 6W-3D-5L in 14 competitive matches; Derby are 1W-3D-8L in 12.
- Sheffield United's home record is 2W-1D-2L with 7 goals for and 6 against in 5.
- Sheffield United have drawn 3 of 14 competitive matches.
- Derby have drawn 3 of 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSheffield United or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sheffield United have the better first-half scoring and defensive numbers, and Derby concede before the break more often. Both teams have often reached half-time level, and first-half scoring is generally low.
- Sheffield United average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.50 against.
- Derby average 0.50 first-half goals for and 1.08 against.
- Sheffield United were level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Derby were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSheffield United or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Derby's low scoring makes a slower game likely despite Sheffield United's home advantage.
- Derby average 0.83 goals scored per match.
- Sheffield United average 1.43 goals scored per match.
- Sheffield United's home matches average 2.6 goals.
- Derby's away matches average 3.0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Sheffield United keep clean sheets regularly and Derby's attack is the weakest part of their game.
- Sheffield United have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Derby have kept 1 clean sheet in 12 matches.
- Derby average 0.83 goals scored per match.
- Derby failed to score in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sheffield United average 1.4 home goals and face a Derby defence conceding two per away game.
- Sheffield United average 1.43 goals per match and 1.4 at home.
- Sheffield United have scored 7 goals in 5 home matches.
- Derby concede 2.0 goals per away match.
- Derby are missing several defenders.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSheffield United over 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby average one goal on their travels and have been shut out in several recent games.
- Derby average 0.83 goals per match and 1.0 away.
- Derby have scored 5 goals in 5 away matches.
- Derby failed to score in two of their last six matches.
- Sheffield United have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDerby County under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby have scored in most away games and Sheffield United have kept only two home clean sheets.
- Derby have scored 5 goals in 5 away matches.
- Derby scored in three of five away matches.
- Sheffield United have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home matches.
- Sheffield United concede 1.2 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDerby County to scoreEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams average around half a first-half goal or more, making an early goal likely.
- Sheffield United average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.50 against.
- Derby average 0.50 first-half goals for and 1.08 against.
- Derby's away first-half averages are 0.40 for and 1.00 against.
- A first-half goal was scored in four of Derby's last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been limited for both sides, making under two goals more likely.
- Sheffield United average 0.71 second-half goals for.
- Derby average 0.33 second-half goals for.
- Derby average 0.75 second-half goals against.
- Both teams have had recent second halves with one or no goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around ten corners, with Derby's games slightly above the line.
- Sheffield United's matches average 9.86 corners.
- Derby's matches average 10.67 corners.
- Sheffield United average 6.43 opponent corners.
- Derby average 5.33 corners and 5.33 opponent corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow plenty of shots, and their match totals average above 25.
- Sheffield United's matches average 25.07 total shots.
- Derby's matches average 26.5 total shots.
- Derby's away matches average 25.6 total shots.
- Sheffield United average 14.43 opponent shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average at least eight shots on target, with Derby's games above nine.
- Sheffield United's matches average 7.93 shots on target.
- Derby's matches average 9.08 shots on target.
- Sheffield United average 4.43 opponent shots on target.
- Derby average 5.25 opponent shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average near four cards and recent games have been busier.
- Sheffield United's matches average 3.69 cards.
- Derby's matches average 3.92 cards.
- Sheffield United's last six matches average 4.5 cards.
- Derby's last six matches average 4.17 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance56%