Derby County0Stoke City1

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 17–12On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 18:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Derby, 23rd and without a home league win, host a Stoke side sitting fourth and winners of five of their last six.

Stoke to win is the likeliest outcome, and the 2.63 for that, 3.20 for Stoke to lead at half-time, 1.50 for Stoke to win or draw and 1.73 for both teams to score all offer something. Derby's 2.40 win price and the 3.30 draw do not.

Context

Derby's senior left-back options are all sidelined: Charlie Taylor was hurt at Burnley on 19 September, Murkin and Forsyth are also out, and Max Johnston missed the Wrexham draw. Winger Ryan Hedges covered at left-back, changing the back line and the left-side balance before a home game against a Stoke side scoring regularly. The full extent of the absences rests on local reporting rather than a club bulletin, so the XI is not settled.
- Leigh Curtis (Derby Telegraph) reported on 10 October 2026 that Derby moved Ryan Hedges to left-back for the Wrexham draw, with Fuseini replacing Charlie Taylor in the only change from the Burnley game.
- BBC Sport Derby reported on 10 October 2026 that head coach John Eustace confirmed defender Max Johnston missed the Wrexham draw through injury.
- Derbyshire Live reported on 8 October 2026 that Derby's press conference covered free-agent options with the club short of fit defenders.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Stoke have taken 13 points from five unbeaten September league games, including a 2-1 win at Bolton on 10 October in which they played around 70 minutes with ten men, and sit fourth. That run is the main reason Mark Robins was nominated for September's Championship manager of the month, and it means Derby meet a side in form rather than the one that lost its first three games. Pete Smith noted the six-game points haul is Stoke's best since December 2007, though the award itself went elsewhere.
- Stoke City FC posted on 8 October 2026 that Mark Robins was nominated for September's Championship Manager of the Month after 13 points, 10 goals scored and three conceded.
- BBC Radio Stoke Sport reported on 10 October 2026 that Stoke named an unchanged side and won 2-1 at Bolton despite playing about 70 minutes with 10 men.
- Pete Smith reported on 11 October 2026 that Stoke's points return over six games was their best since December 2007.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:40 · Europe/Bucharest
That April result is the most recent meeting and the only time in the last four league meetings that Derby have taken all three points, after a 3-1 defeat at Stoke in August 2025, a 0-0 draw in May 2025 and a 2-1 loss at Stoke in November 2024. It is the clearest counterweight to Stoke's current standing, though it came six months ago and Derby have won once in nine league games this season.
- Derby 2-0 Stoke, Championship, 6 April 2026 at Pride Park — the most recent meeting.
- Stoke 3-1 Derby, Championship, 9 August 2025; Derby 0-0 Stoke, Championship, 3 May 2025; Stoke 2-1 Derby, Championship, 2 November 2024.
Derby have won one of nine Championship matches this season, which is the backdrop to a home fixture against a top-four Stoke side. Head coach John Eustace has pointed to the international break, returning players and training-ground work as reasons for optimism, saying the squad can still chase its aims this year. That is his assessment rather than a result: Derby have drawn their last two league games and are still looking for a first home league win.
- BBC Sport Derby reported on 12 October 2026 that John Eustace said Derby are starting to see signs of progress and that returning players will help build momentum.
- BBC Sport Derby reported on 8 October 2026 that Eustace spoke about the club's direction, saying 'If we can't chase the dream this year, then there's no problems.'
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:40 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
Stoke's form and Derby's winless home record make the visitors clear favourites.
- Stoke are 4th on 16 points and have won 5 of their last 6 league games.
- Derby have 0 wins and 9 goals conceded in 5 home league games.
- Stoke won 2-1 at Bolton on 10 October despite playing about 70 minutes with ten men.
- Stoke's away record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStoke CityEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.20
The read
Stoke start strongly and Derby have repeatedly conceded before half-time at home.
- Stoke average 0.83 first-half goals away and concede 0.67.
- Derby concede 1.33 first-half goals per home game.
- Stoke scored first-half goals in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStoke CityEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stoke's greater attacking quality gives them the better chance of winning the closing half.
- Stoke average 0.33 second-half goals away but Derby concede 0.5 after the break at home.
- Stoke scored twice after half-time against Sheffield Utd on 19 September.
- Derby have conceded second-half goals in most home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonStoke CityEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Derby's low-scoring home games and the shared fixture congestion raise the chance of a tight, level match. Stoke's form and Derby's winless home record make the visitors clear favourites.
- Derby have drawn 3 of 10 league matches; Stoke have drawn 1 of 11.
- Derby's home record is 2 draws from 5; Stoke's away record is 1 draw from 5.
- Stoke are 4th on 16 points and have won 5 of their last 6 league games.
- Derby have 0 wins and 9 goals conceded in 5 home league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Stoke CityEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Half-time scorelines are often level even when one side is stronger. Stoke start strongly and Derby have repeatedly conceded before half-time at home.
- Stoke's away first halves average 1.5 total goals.
- Derby's home first halves average 2.0 total goals.
- Stoke average 0.83 first-half goals away and concede 0.67.
- Derby concede 1.33 first-half goals per home game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Stoke CityEstimated chance79%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both teams concede regularly and Stoke's away games have produced plenty of goals.
- Derby home league games average 2.5 total goals; Stoke away games average 3.2.
- Derby average 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded per home game.
- Stoke average 1.17 scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets in these venues and both carry regular scoring threat.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Derby's 6 home matches and 5 of Stoke's 6 away matches.
- Derby kept no clean sheets at home; Stoke kept none away.
- Stoke scored in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's home record shows they almost always concede.
- Derby have kept no clean sheets in 6 home matches.
- Stoke average 1.17 goals per away game.
- Stoke scored twice in each of their last two away league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStoke City to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stoke's away record shows they concede consistently.
- Stoke have kept no clean sheets in 6 away matches.
- Derby scored in 4 of 6 home matches.
- Derby found the net in 4 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDerby County to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams score and concede early often enough for a first-half goal to be likely.
- Derby home first halves average 2.0 goals; Stoke away first halves average 1.5.
- Derby conceded a first-half goal in most home matches.
- Stoke scored before the break in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One side usually fails to score before the break in these matches.
- First-half clean sheets were kept in most recent matches for both teams.
- Stoke kept first-half clean sheets in several recent away games.
- Derby have averaged just 0.67 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's second halves are low scoring at home, favouring under the line.
- Derby score 0.17 and concede 0.5 second-half goals per home game.
- Derby's second halves average just 0.67 total goals at home.
- Stoke have managed 0.33 second-half goals per away game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away matches generally reach double figures in corners.
- Derby home matches average 11.8 corners combined; Stoke away matches average 11.7.
- Stoke's recent away games produced 14 and 12 corners.
- Derby average 6.2 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches feature high shot volumes, especially Stoke's away games.
- Derby home matches average 26.8 total shots; Stoke away matches average 32.
- Stoke have faced 18.7 shots per away game.
- Derby average 12 shots and 14.8 against at home.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up cautions at a rate close to the line, and recent Stoke games have been heated.
- Derby home matches average 4.5 cards combined; Stoke away matches average 4.3.
- Stoke played about 70 minutes with ten men at Bolton after a red card.
- Stoke average 2.8 yellow cards per away game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%