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Predictions graded

Lazio2Parma1

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 14:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Lazio, level at the top after seven rounds, host a Parma side with one league win and no goals in their last two matches.

Lazio winning is the likeliest result, but 1.38 asks more than their form justifies. Four prices hold: over eight and a half corners at 1.57, both teams not to score at 1.67, fewer than three goals at 1.95 and a level first half at 2.40.

Context

Groups have announced a meeting under the Curva Nord at 18:45 on 24 October before sending supporters to pubs rather than seats, and local coverage puts the club's own target at 14,000-15,000. That matters because this is Lazio's first home match since the 3-0 win at Juventus, and a thin, quiet stadium removes part of the usual home edge at a moment when the team is playing unusually well. The protest is aimed at the ownership rather than the squad, and players have publicly asked for the Curva's backing, so the effect is more likely atmospheric than tactical. Ticket initiatives and the chance that some groups enter late leave the exact turnout uncertain.
- Organised Lazio supporters called for a gathering under the Curva Nord at 18:45 on Saturday 24 October to welcome the team bus and then to disperse to pubs rather than take seats.
- The action is framed as a sarcastic answer to recent club remarks about the motives behind the ongoing protest, with the groups citing 26,000 non-subscribers.
- Local reporting puts the club's target for this fixture at 14,000-15,000 spectators, supported by ticket initiatives.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Parma changed coach in late September and have taken nothing from Gilardino's first two matches, conceding three times in each. A new manager still settling on a shape and a line-up is a live variable for this fixture, because the away plan at the Olimpico has to be built from scratch rather than carried over from a settled season. Gilardino's own pre-match language, promising the team will be 'ready' while conceding he has doubts, points to an unsettled selection rather than a fixed template. The caveat is that both defeats came against sides far stronger than the teams Parma will need to beat, so the sample is thin.
- Parma parted with Carlos Cuesta on 27 September, the third Serie A coaching change of the season.
- Parma have lost both matches under Gilardino, 0-3 at Inter on 10 October and 0-3 at home to Torino on 19 October.
- Gilardino said before the Lazio match that he still has 'many doubts' and that his team must be 'connected from the start'.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Ending a run of defeats in Turin that stretched back more than nine years, and doing it 3-0, sets the benchmark for Gattuso's side at 19 points from seven games. The relevant question for this fixture is whether that away template transfers to a home game against a low-scoring opponent, since the Juventus win came with 42% possession and only three shots on target. Against a Parma side likely to defend deep, Lazio will need a different route to goal than the transitions that worked in Turin. The milestone therefore frames the match as a test of variety rather than of confidence.
- Lazio won 3-0 at Juventus on 18 October with goals from Provstgaard, Isaksen and Dele-Bashiru.
- It was Lazio's first victory at the Allianz Stadium in over nine years, ending a run of consecutive away defeats to Juventus.
- The result left Lazio on 19 points after seven rounds, level with Inter at the top of Serie A.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Four goals in seven rounds, and none in the last two matches, is the clearest description of what Parma bring to the Olimpico: an away side whose realistic route to a result is keeping the game goalless for as long as possible. That shapes the tempo Lazio should expect, with Parma likely to defend in numbers and concede territory rather than trade chances. The counterpoint is schedule difficulty, since Juventus, Inter, Como and Torino have all featured in that run, and Parma did score twice in their only win of the season against Genoa. A single set piece or counter could still change the match.
- Parma have the worst attacking record of the five top European leagues, according to an assessment of their start to the season.
- Parma have four goals in seven Serie A matches and have not scored in their last two, 0-3 at Inter and 0-3 at home to Torino.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:14 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Lazio have won six of eight competitive matches and face a Parma side that has lost every away game while scoring once.
- Lazio: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 competitive matches; 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
- Parma away: 0 wins in 4, one goal scored and eight conceded; 4 goals in 7 league rounds.
- League table: Lazio second on 19 points, Parma 19th on 4 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLazioEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Lazio's first-half scoring is intermittent and Parma rarely score early, so a level first half is the single most likely outcome.
- Lazio failed to score before the break in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Parma have 3 first-half goals in 12 competitive matches.
- Parma have conceded 0.83 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lazio score more after the break than Parma manage, and their opponent's second-half away record is weak.
- Lazio second half: 1.0 goal for and 0.75 against per match.
- Parma second half: 0.5 goals for and 0.75 against per match.
- Parma away second half: 0.25 goals for, 1.0 against.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLazioEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio have won six of eight competitive matches and face a Parma side that has lost every away game while scoring once. Lazio have dropped points at home once already and the last two Rome meetings ended level.
- Lazio: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 competitive matches; 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
- Parma away: 0 wins in 4, one goal scored and eight conceded; 4 goals in 7 league rounds.
- Two of the last five meetings between the clubs finished level.
- Lazio home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLazio or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio have led at the break regularly at home while conceding nothing in first halves this season. Lazio's first-half scoring is intermittent and Parma rarely score early, so a level first half is the single most likely outcome.
- Lazio have scored 0.75 first-half goals per match and conceded none in 8 competitive matches.
- Lazio home first half: 1.25 goals for, 0 against.
- Lazio failed to score before the break in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Parma have 3 first-half goals in 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLazio or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Lazio's matches average close to two and a half goals and Parma rarely contribute at the scoring end.
- Lazio home: 1.5 scored and 1.25 conceded per match.
- Parma away: 0.25 scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
- Lazio's 8 competitive matches average 2.5 goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Parma have been shut out in half their matches and in three of four away from home, while Lazio keep clean sheets regularly.
- Parma failed to score in 6 of 12 competitive matches and in 3 of 4 away matches.
- Lazio kept 4 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches.
- Parma have not scored in either match under their current coach.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio have scored at least twice in five of six recent matches and Parma concede two per away game.
- Lazio scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Lazio home: 1.5 goals per match from 4 games.
- Parma away conceded 8 goals in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLazio over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Parma have scored once in four away matches and meet a Lazio defence conceding well under a goal a game.
- Parma away: 1 goal in 4 matches, 0.25 per game.
- Parma have scored 4 goals in 7 league matches.
- Lazio conceded 0.75 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonParma under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's low concession rate meets a Parma attack that has been blanked in half their matches.
- Parma failed to score in 6 of 12 competitive matches.
- Lazio kept 4 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches (0.75 conceded per game).
- Parma have not scored in either of their last two matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostParma not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Lazio have been fast starters at home recently, which makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Lazio scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Lazio home first half: 1.25 goals per match.
- Parma conceded 0.83 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Parma's minimal second-half scoring keeps the half total under two goals more often than not.
- Parma have 0.5 second-half goals per match and 0.25 away.
- Lazio second-half scoring against them is 0.75 per match.
- Combined second-half averages sit around 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' matches clear the line on average, and Parma's away games have produced very high shot counts against them.
- Lazio matches average 26.4 total shots (13.9 for, 12.5 against).
- Parma away matches average 29.8 total shots (6.8 for, 23.0 against).
- Lazio home matches average 27.8 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Parma concede a high number of corners away and Lazio's matches comfortably clear the line on average.
- Lazio matches average 10.1 total corners.
- Parma away matches average 12.0 total corners (2.25 for, 9.75 against).
- Parma overall matches average 9.7 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's matches have produced cards above the line on average, helped by opponents picking up bookings.
- Lazio matches average 4.75 yellow cards combined (2.0 for, 2.75 against).
- Lazio home matches average 4.0 combined.
- Parma away matches average 2.7 combined in a 3-match sample.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Lazio: 2/4 recent goals projections matched

2 of 4 comparable goals projections involving Lazio matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Lazio4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·Serie A

Lazio2-1

Pisa

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→3 total goals

Missed

23 May 2026

Serie A

Lazio2-1

Pisa

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

3 total goals

Missed

17 May·Serie A

Roma2-0

Lazio

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Matched

17 May 2026

Serie A

Roma2-0

Lazio

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Matched

27 Apr·Serie A

Lazio3-3

Udinese

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→6 total goals

Missed

27 Apr 2026

Serie A

Lazio3-3

Udinese

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

6 total goals

Missed

18 Apr·Serie A

Napoli0-2

Lazio

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·62%→2 total goals

Matched

18 Apr 2026

Serie A

Napoli0-2

Lazio

Under 2.5 goals

62%probability

2 total goals

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1LaziovParmaApr 4, 2026SA

W0-1ParmavLazioDec 13, 2025SA

D2-2LaziovParmaApr 28, 2025SA

L3-1ParmavLazioDec 1, 2024SA

W1-0LaziovParmaMay 12, 2021SA

Lazio: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Lazio Champions League league stage	7	6	1	0	14-4	19	WWWDW
19	Parma Relegation	7	1	1	5	4-13	4	LLWLD

15pt gap between teamsLazio leads the leagueParma in relegation zone

Recent Form

Lazio

W3-0JuventusOct 18SA

W3-1MonzaOct 11SA

D3-3Juve StabiaOct 3FRI

W2-0ArezzoSep 27FRI

L0-2MantovaAug 16CI

W2-1FrosinoneAug 9FRI

W4-0Ostia MareAug 5FRI

W2-1AscoliAug 2FRI

W6-3AvellinoAug 1FRI

W6-0FlaminiaJul 26FRI

Parma

L0-2CremoneseSep 1CI

W2-0CataniaAug 14CI

L0-2SampdoriaAug 9FRI

D1-1Iraklis 1908Aug 2FRI

D1-1ArezzoJul 30FRI

W1-0SassuoloMay 24SA

L0-1ComoMay 17SA

L2-3AS RomaMay 10SA

Squad & Injuries

Lazio

12 out

Attackers4/7

×#80

×#22

×#80

×#22

Midfielders4/10

×#6

×#24

×#6

×#24

Defenders2/13

×#77

Goalkeeper2/5

×#55

#55 A. Furlanetto — Knee Injury

#80 A. Gudmundsson — Shoulder Injury

#22 M. Cancellieri — Leg Injury

#77 A. Marusic — Muscle Injury

#6 N. Rovella — Calf Injury

#24 K. Taylor — Thigh Injury

#55 A. Furlanetto — Knee Injury

#80 A. Gudmundsson — Shoulder Injury

#22 M. Cancellieri — Leg Injury

#77 A. Marusic — Muscle Injury

#6 N. Rovella — Calf Injury

#24 K. Taylor — Thigh Injury

Parma

8 out

Attackers2/6

×#23

Midfielders4/12

×#11

×#41

×#11

×#41

Defenders2/9

×#5

Goalkeeper4

#11 P. Almqvist — Calf Injury

#23 N. Elphege — Illness

#41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia — Thigh Injury

#5 L. Valenti — Coach's decision

#11 P. Almqvist — Calf Injury

#23 N. Elphege — Illness

#41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia — Thigh Injury

#5 L. Valenti — Coach's decision

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 8.5

No

Under 2.5

Draw

Lazio

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lazio

Parma

Squad & Injuries

Lazio

Parma