Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Venezia0Lazio2

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Lazio are strong favourites against a winless, injury-hit Venezia.

The best value is Lazio to win at 2.05 (model edge +19pts), with Draw or Lazio at 1.30 also offering value. Avoid Venezia or Draw and Over 3.5 goals.

Context

Venezia are 20th in Serie A with 0 points from 4 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11.
They have lost every league game this season, including a 4-2 home defeat to Fiorentina on 11 September and a 2-0 home loss to Lecce on 23 August. Their defence has allowed at least two goals in each of those four matches, and they have not kept a clean sheet. Lazio arrive as the league leaders, so Venezia's poor start makes this a difficult fixture for the home side.
- Venezia are 20th with 0 points from 4 matches (W0 D0 L4), scoring 4 and conceding 11.
- Home record: 0 wins, 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Recent Serie A results: lost 4-2 to Fiorentina (11 Sep), lost 3-2 to Frosinone (6 Sep), lost 2-0 to AC Milan (28 Aug), lost 2-0 to Lecce (23 Aug).
Venezia's central-defensive options are reduced by reported absences of Armel Bella-Kotchap, Bartol Franjić and Marin Šverko.
The reported absences limit Venezia's rotation and replacement options in central defence. This comes eight days after they conceded four at home to Fiorentina, so the defensive organisation may be tested again. The coach referred to an ongoing injury crisis, but the exact lineup remains uncertain.
- Venezia’s official squad list for Fiorentina omitted Armel Bella-Kotchap, Bartol Franjić and Marin Šverko.
- La Gazzetta dello Sport reported that Bella-Kotchap’s right-adductor injury would rule him out against Lazio; it also reported Franjić had shoulder surgery and Šverko was still unavailable.
- After the Fiorentina match, Venezia coach Giovanni Stroppa referred to an ongoing injury crisis.
ReportedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:43 · Europe/BucharestVenezia FC: squad list for Fiorentinawww.veneziafc.it · 10 Sep 2026La Gazzetta dello Sport: Venezia defensive injurieswww.gazzetta.it · 10 Sep 2026Venezia FC: post-match against Fiorentinaen.veneziafc.it · 11 Sep 2026
Lazio are 1st in Serie A with 10 points from 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 3.
They have won both away league games, beating Udinese 2-1 on 7 September and Bologna 1-0 on 24 August. Their away form is strong, with 3 goals scored and only 1 conceded in those two matches. Facing a Venezia side that has lost every home game, Lazio's away record suggests they can control this match.
- Lazio are 1st with 10 points from 4 matches (W3 D1 L0), scoring 6 and conceding 3.
- Away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Recent away wins: 2-1 at Udinese (7 Sep), 1-0 at Bologna (24 Aug).
Venezia have played two home league matches this season, losing both and conceding six goals.
They lost 4-2 to Fiorentina on 11 September and 2-0 to Lecce on 23 August. In those games, they conceded 10 shots on target to Fiorentina and 5 to Lecce. Lazio have scored in every away league match this season, so Venezia's leaky home defence is a concern.
- Home record: 0 wins, 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Lost 4-2 to Fiorentina (11 Sep) and 2-0 to Lecce (23 Aug) at home.
- Opponents had 10 and 5 shots on target in those matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's superior form, league position, and away record, combined with Venezia's winless start and defensive struggles, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Lazio are top of Serie A with 10 points from 4 games (3W, 1D, 0L), while Venezia are bottom with 0 points from 4 games (4L).
- Lazio's away record this season: 2 wins from 2, scoring 3 and conceding 1.
- Venezia have lost all 4 league matches, conceding 11 goals (2.75 per game).
- Last 5 H2H: Lazio won 2, drew 2, lost 1; most recent meeting ended 0-0 in Venice.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLazioEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Venezia's poor form and Lazio's consistency, the probability of Venezia winning is low, making Draw or Lazio a strong double chance.
- Venezia have lost all 4 league games this season.
- Lazio have not lost in their last 4 league games (3W, 1D).
- H2H: Lazio unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings (2W, 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or LazioEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lazio's slightly better first-half performance and overall superiority give them an edge, but the probability is not high due to the draw possibility.
- Lazio lead at half-time in 40% of recent matches, while Venezia lead in 27%.
- Lazio's first-half goal difference: +0.3 per game (0.9 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- Venezia's first-half goal difference: +0.2 per game (0.9 scored, 0.7 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLazioEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lazio's stronger squad and Venezia's tendency to fade in the second half support a Lazio second-half win.
- Lazio have won the second half in 3 of their last 4 league games.
- Venezia have lost the second half in 3 of their last 4 league games.
- Lazio's away second-half performance: won both away games' second halves.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLazioEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lazio are capable of controlling the match from the start, but the probability is moderate due to the possibility of a draw at half-time.
- Lazio have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 4 league games.
- Venezia have not led at half-time in any of their last 4 league games.
- Lazio's away record: 2 wins, both with a lead at half-time in one game.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLazio/LazioEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Venezia's leaky defense and Lazio's consistent scoring suggest a high-scoring match, with Over 2.5 goals likely.
- Venezia's league matches average 3.75 total goals (15 goals in 4 games).
- Lazio's league matches average 2.25 total goals (9 goals in 4 games).
- Venezia have conceded 11 goals in 4 games, including 4 at home to Fiorentina.
- Lazio have scored in all 4 league games (6 goals total).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Venezia's defensive vulnerabilities make it likely Lazio will score, while Venezia may find the net at home.
- Venezia have scored in 3 of 4 league games (4 goals total).
- Lazio have scored in all 4 league games (6 goals total).
- Venezia have conceded in all 4 league games.
- Lazio have conceded in 3 of 4 league games (3 goals total).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the match is likely to have an early goal given the attacking intent.
- Venezia's first-half goals: 0.9 per game average, with 27% leading at half-time and 27% trailing.
- Lazio's first-half goals: 0.9 per game average, with 40% leading at half-time and 27% trailing.
- In Venezia's last 5 league matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
- In Lazio's last 5 league matches, 3 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as Venezia chase the game, leading to more goals.
- Venezia's second-half goals: average 1.6 per game (total 2.5 - 0.9 first half).
- Lazio's second-half goals: average 1.1 per game (total 2.0 - 0.9 first half).
- Venezia have conceded 11 goals in 4 games, many in the second half.
- Lazio have scored 6 goals in 4 games, with a balanced distribution.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total is likely to be around 9, making Over 8.5 a close call.
- Venezia average 4.8 corners per game, Lazio average 4.4 corners per game.
- Combined average corners: 9.2 per game.
- In Venezia's last 5 league matches, total corners averaged 8.8.
- In Lazio's last 5 league matches, total corners averaged 9.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a decent number of shots on target, and the total is likely to exceed 8.5.
- Venezia average 5.6 shots on target per game, Lazio average 4.1 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.7 per game.
- Venezia's last 5 league matches: 5.2 shots on target per game.
- Lazio's last 5 league matches: 4.4 shots on target per game.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with a moderate number of cards, making Over 3.5 a borderline call.
- Venezia average 1.5 yellow cards per game, Lazio average 2.3 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.8 per game.
- In Venezia's last 5 league matches, total cards averaged 3.6.
- In Lazio's last 5 league matches, total cards averaged 4.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 30% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 12%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D0-0VeneziavLazioFeb 22, 2025SA

L3-1LaziovVeneziaAug 18, 2024SA

D0-0LaziovVeneziaJul 22, 2022FRI

L1-0LaziovVeneziaMar 14, 2022SA

L1-3VeneziavLazioDec 22, 2021SA

Lazio unbeaten in 5 meetingsVenezia: 2 clean sheetsLazio: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	Venezia Relegation	4	0	0	4	4-11	0	LLLL
1	Lazio Champions League league stage	4	3	1	0	6-3	10	DWWW

10pt gap between teamsLazio leads the leagueVenezia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Venezia

L2-4FiorentinaSep 11SA

L2-3FrosinoneSep 6SA

L1-2UdineseSep 2CI

L0-2AC MilanAug 28SA

L0-2LecceAug 23SA

W3-2ModenaAug 15CI

D2-2Stade Brestois 29Aug 8FRI

L3-4Saint EtienneAug 1FRI

W3-0GalatasarayJul 27FRI

W8-0Vis PesaroJul 23FRI

W4-2Dolomiti BellunesiJul 19FRI

W2-0PalermoMay 8SER

D2-2SpeziaMay 1SER

W2-0EmpoliApr 25SER

W3-0BariApr 18SER

Lazio

L0-2MantovaAug 16CI

W2-1FrosinoneAug 9FRI

W4-0Ostia MareAug 5FRI

W2-1AscoliAug 2FRI

W6-3AvellinoAug 1FRI

W6-0FlaminiaJul 26FRI

L0-2InterMay 13CI

Squad & Injuries

Venezia

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders14

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Lazio

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Lazio

Draw or Lazio

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Venezia

Venezia or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Venezia

Lazio

Squad & Injuries

Venezia

Lazio