Parma2Genoa 1

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 5–12On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with a draw the most likely result.

The best value is Under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.40 (model edge +18.3 points), while Under 2.5 goals and Under 1.5 second-half goals are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Parma are 17th in Serie A with one point from four matches, while Genoa are 19th with the same points total. Both teams are inside the relegation zone.
The table position makes this a high-stakes match for both sides. Parma have a slightly better goal difference (-4 vs -6) and are just above the relegation line, while Genoa are deeper in trouble. A win would lift either team out of the bottom three, so both are likely to push for a result rather than sit back.
- Parma are 17th with 1 point from 4 matches (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Genoa are 19th with 1 point from 4 matches (0W, 1D, 3L).
- Both teams are in the relegation zone; Parma are 1 point above 18th, Genoa are 1 point below 17th.
Parma's last four Serie A matches have produced one draw and three losses.
The defeats include a 2-1 loss at Como on 14 September and a 2-0 home loss to Cremonese in the Coppa Italia on 1 September. Parma have scored only two goals in their last four league games, which suggests they may struggle to break down Genoa's defence.
- Lost 2-1 at Como on 14 September 2026.
- Drew 1-1 at home to Monza on 6 September 2026.
- Lost 2-0 at home to Cremonese in Coppa Italia on 1 September 2026.
- Lost 2-0 at Juventus on 29 August 2026.
Parma midfielder Adrián Bernabé returned to group training after missing the Monza match and was called up for Como, coming on in the 64th minute.
His return gives Parma an additional midfield option for Genoa. Bernabé started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, so his role may be as a substitute or rotational starter.
- ParmaLive reported that Bernabé returned to group training after missing the Monza match and was called up for Como.
- Parma’s official match report records Bernabé replacing Sierro in the 64th minute against Como.
- Adrián Bernabé started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:27 · Europe/BucharestParmaLive: Bernabé returns to availabilitywww.parmalive.com · 14 Sep 2026Parma Calcio 1913: Como 2-1 Parmawww.parmacalcio1913.com · 14 Sep 2026
Genoa's last four Serie A matches have produced one draw and three losses.
The losses include a 4-1 home defeat to Como on 4 September and a 1-0 loss at Lazio on 30 August. Genoa have conceded eight goals in their last four league games, which could give Parma opportunities to score.
- Drew 1-1 at home to Frosinone on 12 September 2026.
- Lost 4-1 at home to Como on 4 September 2026.
- Lost 1-0 at Lazio on 30 August 2026.
- Lost 2-0 at home to Napoli on 22 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are struggling for wins and recent head-to-head meetings have frequently ended level, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Parma win, 1 Genoa win
- Parma home record this season: 0W 1D 1L
- Genoa away record this season: 0W 0D 1L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Parma's home advantage and Genoa's poor away form make the double chance of Parma or draw a solid selection.
- Parma home record this season: 0W 1D 1L
- Genoa away record this season: 0W 0D 1L
- Parma have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions
BetBugs · Double ChancewonParma or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and their head-to-head record supports a first-half draw.
- Parma have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Genoa have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is a plausible outcome given the teams' low scoring and recent stalemates.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches ended 0-0
- Parma have drawn 1 of their last 5 matches
- Genoa have drawn 1 of their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and their recent meetings have been tight, supporting a low-scoring game.
- Parma average 0.7 goals scored per match in recent form
- Genoa average 0.9 goals scored per match in recent form
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have been misfiring and their head-to-head history shows few games with both teams scoring.
- Parma have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Genoa have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 1 match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly and their recent meetings have been goalless at the break.
- Parma average 0.2 first-half goals scored in recent form
- Genoa average 0.3 first-half goals scored in recent form
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches were 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' second-half scoring rates are low, making under 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Parma average 0.5 second-half goals scored in recent form
- Genoa average 0.6 second-half goals scored in recent form
- Combined second-half scoring average is below 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the combined average suggests under 9.5 corners.
- Parma average 4.1 corners per match in recent form
- Genoa average 4.5 corners per match in recent form
- Combined average corners is 8.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making under 8.5 shots on target likely.
- Parma average 3.0 shots on target per match in recent form
- Genoa average 2.9 shots on target per match in recent form
- Combined average shots on target is 5.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low card counts, suggesting under 4.5 total cards.
- Parma average 1.2 yellow cards per match in recent form
- Genoa average 1.6 yellow cards per match in recent form
- Combined average yellow cards is 2.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 31%; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Parma has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

Parma has fulfilled 5 of 6 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 83% success rate. The average estimated probability was 63.3%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. At home, Parma fulfilled 3 of 4 such predictions, while away they fulfilled 2 of 2, showing consistency across venues.

Recent evidence for Parma6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Serie A