Bodo/Glimt0Valerenga1

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 26–13On targetOn target 8–6CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Glimt are level with Viking at the top on 56 points and have won 10 of 11 at home, but they come off a 4-3 defeat in Naples three days ago with four players missing.

Vålerenga sit 11th with two away wins all season, so a home win is the likeliest result — though 1.14 asks near-certainty. The quoted prices with something behind them are the half-time draw at 4, the full-time draw at 10 and both teams to score at 1.57.

Context

Viking's supporters have been selling away tickets for the Bodø trip since early October because the 30 October meeting is read as decisive for the title, which turns Saturday into the final league round before that reckoning. Dropped points in Bodø would hand Viking the initiative in a match Glimt host. Stakes alone do not guarantee a full-strength line-up, though: Glimt played at Napoli on Tuesday 20 October, so the title race may show up in who is rested rather than who is risked.
- Bodø/Glimt and Viking were level on 56 points after the round completed on 17-18 October.
- Glimt won 2-0 at HamKam and Viking beat Fredrikstad 3-2 in that round, keeping both at the top of the table.
- Viking are scheduled to play at Aspmyra Stadion on Friday 30 October.
- Viking's supporter group described the 30 October game as one that will mean a great deal for who takes the title.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:44 · Europe/Bucharest
All four were already missing for the Napoli match, where Glimt's midfield was Auklend, Berg and Fet with Sjøvold and Bjørkan at full-back. The consequence here is a smaller rotation pool in exactly the area where a Champions League week bites hardest, raising the chance that Berg and Fet are asked to go again three days after Naples. The caveat is timing: Evjen and Riisnæs are listed for a late-October return, so this may be the last fixture they sit out rather than a lasting structural loss.
- Evjen (knee), Mikkelsen (groin) and Riisnæs (knee) were listed as unavailable for Glimt, with Evjen and Riisnæs expected back in late October.
- Sjong was also listed among the absentees for the Napoli match on 20 October.
- Glimt's midfield at Napoli was Auklend, Berg and Fet in a 4-3-3.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:44 · Europe/BucharestFixture page listing Glimt absences and expected returnswww.fotmob.com · 23 Oct 2026
Vålerenga's most recent league match was a 3-1 home win over Brann in which they had 33% of the ball and faced 22 shots, so the back four is being asked to defend territory rather than dictate play. Removing a regular right-sided defender for a trip to Aspmyra adds load to the department already carrying the most stress. The effect may be a reshuffle rather than a clear weakening, since the same back line conceded only once against Brann despite that shot volume, and Vålerenga's replacement choice is unconfirmed.
- Sjåtil was listed as suspended for the 24 October fixture after receiving yellow cards.
- Drammeh was listed out with an Achilles tendon injury expected to last into early November 2026.
- Vålerenga beat Brann 3-1 at home on 18 October with 33% possession and 22 shots against them.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:44 · Europe/BucharestFixture page listing Vålerenga suspension and injurywww.fotmob.com · 23 Oct 2026
The Naples XI was close to full strength, and most of those players are the ones who would otherwise be picked again four days later at home. That is the clearest structural reason to expect changes against Vålerenga, and the effect would land in midfield and wide areas where Glimt have the most like-for-like cover. It is not a confirmed plan, and Glimt's own record argues against over-reading it: they won 2-0 at HamKam on 17 October, four days after facing Dortmund in Europe.
- Glimt's XI at Napoli on 20 October was Haikin; Sjøvold, Gundersen, Bjørtuft, Bjørkan; Auklend, Berg, Fet; Blomberg, Helmersen, Hauge.
- Glimt lost that Champions League match 4-3 in Naples.
- Glimt host Viking at Aspmyra on Friday 30 October.
- The Vålerenga match is set for Saturday 24 October with a 16:00 local kick-off.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's home record and attacking output make them clear favourites despite the short turnaround.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 10 of 11 home league games, scoring 34 and conceding 7.
- Valerenga are 2W-3D-6L away in the league, with 15 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- Bodo/Glimt won the August meeting 2-1 away to Valerenga.
- Bodo/Glimt played at Napoli on 20 October and have four players unavailable.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's first-half scoring and strong home defence make them the likeliest side to lead at the break.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.0 first-half goal at home and 0.2 against in five home tracked matches.
- Valerenga average 1.25 first-half goals and 1.25 against in eight away tracked matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored 1.33 first-half goals per tracked match overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's second-half scoring at home makes them the likeliest side to win the closing period.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.8 second-half goals at home and 0.8 against in five home tracked matches.
- Valerenga average 1.5 second-half goals and 1.25 against in eight away tracked matches.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.4 second-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's home record and attacking output make them clear favourites despite the short turnaround. A draw needs Bodo/Glimt to be held at home, which their league record makes uncommon.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 10 of 11 home league games, scoring 34 and conceding 7.
- Valerenga are 2W-3D-6L away in the league, with 15 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- Valerenga have drawn 3 of 11 away league matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have drawn only 2 of 23 league matches and none at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's first-half scoring and strong home defence make them the likeliest side to lead at the break. A level first half is possible because Bodo/Glimt concede little before the break and may start carefully.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.0 first-half goal at home and 0.2 against in five home tracked matches.
- Valerenga average 1.25 first-half goals and 1.25 against in eight away tracked matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have conceded only 0.53 first-half goals per tracked match.
- Valerenga have conceded 1.25 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBodo/Glimt or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and Valerenga's weak clean-sheet record point to at least three goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.8 goals at home and 1.0 against in five home tracked matches.
- Valerenga average 2.75 goals and 2.5 against in eight away tracked matches.
- Valerenga have no clean sheets in 14 tracked matches.
- The August meeting finished 2-1 and the last Aspmyra league meeting 7-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Valerenga usually score but rarely keep clean sheets, so both sides finding the net is well supported.
- Valerenga have scored in 11 of 14 tracked matches and kept no clean sheets.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Bodo/Glimt's 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 11 of Valerenga's 14 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.09
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates make at least one goal before the break likely.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.33 first-half goals overall and 1.0 at home.
- Valerenga average 1.21 first-half goals overall and 1.25 away.
- Valerenga's away first halves average 2.5 goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's recent matches have been corner-heavy, but Bodo/Glimt's home games have been lower.
- Valerenga's away tracked matches average 14.7 corners in total.
- Bodo/Glimt's home tracked matches average 10.2 corners in total.
- Recent Valerenga matches produced 12, 19, 15, 12 and 15 corners.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent tracked matches produced 7, 6, 14, 5 and 9 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's home matches have kept shot totals below the line more often than not.
- Bodo/Glimt's home tracked matches average 29.6 total shots.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent matches produced 32, 28, 20, 29 and 23 shots.
- Valerenga's away tracked matches average 33.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 34.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match totals have often stayed below 11.5, even with Valerenga's high counts.
- Bodo/Glimt's home tracked matches average 10.6 shots on target in total.
- Bodo/Glimt's recent matches produced 14, 4, 7, 11 and 10 shots on target.
- Valerenga's recent matches produced 17, 10, 5, 5 and 13 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's away card count makes the line close, with Bodo/Glimt committing few cards themselves.
- Valerenga average 2.33 yellow cards in away tracked matches.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.8 opponent yellow cards at home.
- Bodo/Glimt average 0.4 yellow cards at home.
- Valerenga's recent matches produced 2, 2, 1, 6 and 2 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.14 price requires 87.7%, above our 72.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

8 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Bodo/Glimt matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien