San Antonio FC1New Mexico United0

HT 1–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 16:44 · Europe/Bucharest

San Antonio have not won in six league games and need a goal, while New Mexico are chasing first place in the West.

New Mexico are the likelier winners, but San Antonio's four 0-0 draws in six matches keep the draw live. The quoted prices that offer value are New Mexico to draw or win at 1.91, New Mexico to win at 3.40, under 2.5 goals at 2.05, at least one clean sheet at 2.10, the first-half draw at 2.25 and no both-teams-to-score in the first half at 1.22.

Context

San Antonio's hold on the Western Conference's final playoff place is not secure, and its last two regular-season matches are at home, starting with New Mexico United on Oct. 17. A defense that has kept four clean sheets in six league games has carried the team while the attack has produced a single goal in the same span, so the fixture turns on whether San Antonio can finally convert at Toyota Field. The cause is disputed locally, with one reporter attributing the drought partly to a restrictive system and partly to poor execution, so a sudden attacking fix is not assured.
- San Antonio FC has not won any of its last six USL Championship matches, drawing four and losing two.
- It has scored one goal in those six matches while keeping four clean sheets.
- Two home fixtures remain in the regular season, on Oct. 17 against New Mexico United and Oct. 24, with San Antonio trying to hold off teams chasing the final playoff place.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:41 · Europe/Bucharest
New Mexico United has already locked up a home playoff match, but its stated target is the Western Conference's top seed, and this is one of two remaining road fixtures. That shapes motivation rather than survival: a club still chasing first place has reason to play a strong side, while an already-qualified team might manage minutes on a long trip. The seeding picture is not settled, so how aggressively New Mexico approaches San Antonio is uncertain.
- New Mexico United secured a playoff berth with a 2-1 win over Phoenix Rising on Oct. 4 and will host a Western Conference quarterfinal at RGCU Field at Isotopes Park on Nov. 1.
- The club's stated aim for its final two road matches is to finish first in the West.
- New Mexico United is 13-7-7 this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:41 · Europe/Bucharest
The Aug. 30 match is the clearest recent meeting between the clubs and the last time San Antonio scored more than once in a league game, so it is a useful guide to how its attack can function. New Mexico United was the opponent on the night its own defensive error opened the scoring, which gives the rematch a natural framing for both sides. The result predates San Antonio's six-match winless run, so it should be treated as a specific reference point rather than current form.
- San Antonio FC beat New Mexico United 2-1 on Aug. 30.
- Kipp Keller's own goal opened the scoring in the 7th minute, Dayonn Harris scored on 46 minutes and Dominick Hernandez on 52.
- San Antonio FC has not won a USL Championship match since that result.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:41 · Europe/BucharestSan Antonio FC match reportwww.sanantoniofc.com · 30 Aug 2026
Batrouni's recognition and shutout count explain how San Antonio has stayed in the playoff race despite scoring problems, and the goalkeeper is the part of that structure New Mexico United must beat. New Mexico has scored at least twice in three of its last five matches, so the clean-sheet run will be tested. Clean sheets are a team outcome rather than one player's work, so the award should not be read as a guarantee of another.
- Joey Batrouni was named to the USL Championship Team of the Week on Oct. 13.
- A mid-October shutout list placed Batrouni on nine USL Championship clean sheets, among the league leaders.
- San Antonio FC has four clean sheets in its last six league matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:41 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.40
The read
New Mexico are the stronger side and meet a home team that has stopped scoring.
- New Mexico are second in the West with 44 goals in 28 league games
- New Mexico have won two of their last three, scoring three and two
- New Mexico are 5-4-4 away with 18 goals in 13 away games
- San Antonio have not won any of their last six league matches, scoring once
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew Mexico UnitedEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
With San Antonio rarely scoring before half-time, the first half is more likely to finish level.
- San Antonio have not scored a first-half goal in any of their last six league games
- San Antonio average 0.36 first-half goals and concede 0.36 per match
- New Mexico average 0.73 first-half goals per match
- New Mexico scored five first-half goals in their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New Mexico score regularly after half-time and San Antonio rarely reply, favouring the visitors in the second half.
- New Mexico average 1.20 second-half goals per match and 1.29 away
- New Mexico scored six second-half goals in their last six matches
- San Antonio concede 0.57 second-half goals per match and 0.71 at home
- San Antonio have scored one goal in their last six league games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNew Mexico UnitedEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home solidity and recent head-to-head wins keep them in this, though their scoring has dried up. New Mexico are the stronger side and meet a home team that has stopped scoring.
- San Antonio are 5-5-3 at home in the league this season, with 14 scored and 12 conceded in 13 home games
- San Antonio have scored only 7 goals in 14 competitive matches and one in their last six league games
- New Mexico are second in the West with 44 goals in 28 league games
- New Mexico have won two of their last three, scoring three and two
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Antonio FC or New Mexico UnitedEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With San Antonio rarely scoring before half-time, the first half is more likely to finish level. New Mexico have scored before half-time often, while San Antonio rarely threaten early.
- San Antonio have not scored a first-half goal in any of their last six league games
- San Antonio average 0.36 first-half goals and concede 0.36 per match
- New Mexico average 0.73 first-half goals per match and 0.86 away
- New Mexico scored five first-half goals in their last six matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or New Mexico UnitedEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
San Antonio's very low scoring makes a match under two and a half goals the more likely outcome.
- San Antonio scored one goal in their last six league matches
- San Antonio average 0.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per competitive match
- Four of San Antonio's last six league matches finished 0-0
- New Mexico scored 11 goals in their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
San Antonio's difficulty scoring makes at least one clean sheet the more likely outcome.
- San Antonio scored one goal in their last six league games
- San Antonio kept four clean sheets in their last six league matches
- San Antonio have scored 7 goals in 14 competitive matches
- New Mexico scored in four of their last six league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home scoring has been thin, making fewer than two home goals likely.
- San Antonio scored 3 goals in 7 home league matches in the tracked window
- San Antonio scored one goal in their last six league games
- San Antonio average 0.86 goals scored in tracked home matches
- San Antonio have 29 goals in 28 league games this season
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSan Antonio FC under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's defensive run makes it more likely that New Mexico are held below two goals.
- San Antonio kept four clean sheets in their last six league matches
- New Mexico scored no goals in two of their last six matches
- San Antonio concede 0.93 goals per competitive match
- New Mexico have 18 goals in 13 away league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNew Mexico United under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New Mexico's early scoring makes at least one first-half goal slightly more likely than not.
- New Mexico scored five first-half goals in their last six matches
- San Antonio have not scored a first-half goal in their last six league games
- San Antonio average 0.36 first-half goals scored and 0.36 conceded per match
- New Mexico average 0.73 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
San Antonio's inability to score before half-time makes both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- San Antonio have not scored a first-half goal in their last six league games
- San Antonio average 0.36 first-half goals per match
- New Mexico average 0.73 first-half goals per match
- San Antonio kept clean sheets in four of their last six league games
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's very low-scoring run makes fewer than two second-half goals the more likely outcome.
- San Antonio's last six league matches produced one goal in total
- San Antonio average 0.43 second-half goals per match
- Four of San Antonio's last six league matches finished 0-0
- New Mexico average 1.20 second-half goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%