Colorado Springs Switchbacks2San Antonio FC1

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 04:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Colorado Springs has a slight home edge, but the odds on a home win (1.85) and double chance (1.25) are overpriced relative to the model.

The best value is in Over 2.5 goals (1.91) and Both Teams to Score (1.80), with small positive edges of +3 and +2 points respectively.

Context

San Antonio and Colorado Springs have played five times since April 2025, with San Antonio winning three and Colorado Springs winning one.
In the most recent league match on June 25, 2026, San Antonio won 2-1 at Colorado Springs. San Antonio also won 2-0 in a USL League One Cup match in June 2025. However, Colorado Springs won 1-0 at home in October 2025, so the home team has won two of the last three league meetings at this venue.
- 2026-06-25: Colorado Springs 1-2 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2025-10-05: Colorado Springs 1-0 San Antonio (USL Championship)
- 2025-06-26: Colorado Springs 0-2 San Antonio (USL League One Cup)
Both clubs played USL Cup semifinals on September 8, leaving less than three days before this league match.
Colorado Springs lost 2-1 at Hartford, while San Antonio went to a 10-round shootout against Louisville City before traveling to Colorado. The short turnaround makes rotation and selection continuity immediate considerations for both squads, though the linked analysis gives Colorado Springs a slight edge due to home scoring and San Antonio's travel.
- Colorado Springs lost 2-1 to Hartford Athletic in the USL Cup semifinal on September 8.
- The Switchbacks' official recap names Friday's San Antonio match at Weidner Field as their next fixture.
- San Antonio lost 8-7 on penalties to Louisville City after a scoreless semifinal on September 8.
- San Antonio's official report lists the Colorado Springs visit as its next match on Friday.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 04:17 · Europe/BucharestColorado Springs Switchbacks FC: Cup semifinal recapwww.switchbacksfc.com · 9 Sep 2026San Antonio FC: Cup semifinal recapwww.sanantoniofc.com · 9 Sep 2026
Colorado Springs is sixth in the Western Conference with 34 points from 23 matches.
At home, Colorado Springs has won 6, drawn 2, and lost 3, scoring 21 goals and conceding 14. This home form is better than their away record, where they have lost 6 of 12 matches. San Antonio's away record is solid with 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, so this match may be closely contested.
- Colorado Springs home record: 6W 2D 3L, 21 goals for, 14 against
- San Antonio away record: 4W 5D 2L, 14 goals for, 14 against
San Antonio's Friday visit is at Weidner Field, which sits at 6,035 feet above sea level.
The away side must adapt to high elevation while preparing on a short week after Tuesday's Cup semifinal. This can affect late-match physical management, and the linked analysis sees home advantage and San Antonio's moderate away form making a Colorado Springs win or draw the most likely double chance.
- San Antonio's official post-semifinal report confirms a Friday visit to Colorado Springs.
- Colorado Springs' official report confirms the match is at Weidner Field.
- USL identifies Weidner Field as sitting at 6,035 feet above sea level.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 04:17 · Europe/BucharestSan Antonio FC: Cup semifinal recapwww.sanantoniofc.com · 9 Sep 2026USL Championship: Weidner Field home-field featurewww.uslchampionship.com · 30 Jun 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Colorado Springs Switchbacks

1.85fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Colorado Springs' home scoring edge and San Antonio's short turnaround give the hosts a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs' strong home scoring edge and San Antonio's travel/short turnaround give the hosts a slight advantage.
- Colorado Springs home record: 6W-2D-3L, 21 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches
- San Antonio away record: 4W-5D-2L, 14 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches
- H2H last 5: Colorado Springs 1W, San Antonio 2W, 2D; at Colorado Springs, home side won 1 and lost 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColorado Springs SwitchbacksEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and San Antonio's moderate away form make a home win or draw the most likely double chance.
- Colorado Springs home unbeaten rate: 8/11 (73%)
- San Antonio away win rate: 4/11 (36%)
- H2H at Colorado Springs: 1 home win, 1 away win, 1 draw in last 3
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColorado Springs Switchbacks or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into halftime level, and the H2H shows frequent first-half draws.
- Colorado Springs first-half results: 13 trailing, 2 leading, 0 draws in last 15 (but many draws at halftime)
- San Antonio first-half results: 40% leading, 27% trailing, 33% drawing
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is plausible given San Antonio's away draw tendency.
- Colorado Springs home draws: 2 in 11 matches
- San Antonio away draws: 5 in 11 matches
- H2H last 5: 2 draws overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns, especially at Colorado Springs, support a higher-scoring game.
- Colorado Springs home matches average 3.18 total goals (21+14 in 11)
- San Antonio away matches average 2.55 total goals (14+14 in 11)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Colorado Springs scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- San Antonio scored in 9 of 11 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's tendency to score early and the H2H pattern suggest at least one first-half goal.
- Colorado Springs first-half goals: 0.3 per match average, but scored in 5 of last 15
- San Antonio first-half goals: 0.5 per match average, scored in 8 of last 15
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Colorado Springs second-half goals: 1.3 per match (1.6 total - 0.3 first half)
- San Antonio second-half goals: 0.8 per match (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 2.1 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's consistent away scoring makes a Colorado Springs clean sheet unlikely.
- Colorado Springs kept clean sheets in only 2 of 11 home matches
- San Antonio scored in 9 of 11 away matches
- H2H: San Antonio scored in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSan Antonio FC to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado Springs' strong home scoring record suggests San Antonio will concede.
- San Antonio kept clean sheets in 3 of 11 away matches
- Colorado Springs scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- H2H: Colorado Springs scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonColorado Springs Switchbacks to scoreEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Colorado Springs Switchbacks have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Colorado Springs Switchbacks have fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections, with an average estimated probability of 41.5% and an expected 1.7 fulfilled predictions. Their two missed projections both resulted in losses, and all four projections occurred at home, where they have fulfilled 2 of 4. The current probability of 42% sits within their historical range of 40% to 42%.

Recent evidence for Colorado Springs Switchbacks4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·USL Championship