Roma2Genoa 0

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions14–288%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 15–9On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 00:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Roma's unbeaten home start meets a Genoa side with one league win and no away goals, but Roma are missing their first-choice goalkeeper and a starting forward.

Roma should still win, though the 1.35 on them asks for more than the evidence justifies. The half-time draw at 2.5, both teams not to score at 1.78 and the draw at 5 are the reviewed prices with potential value.

Context

Svilar began the season as Roma's first-choice goalkeeper, so his absence changes the most settled position in a side that has otherwise started strongly. The injury is a right-foot fifth-toe stress fracture picked up in training, and Gasperini has confirmed that Gollini, making his first Serie A start in two years, will deputise. A reserve goalkeeper can affect how Roma defend crosses and set pieces against a Genoa side that scored twice from open play in their last league match. The recovery timeline carries a caveat: a possible screw fixation could push Svilar's return beyond the next international break, so it is unclear when the first-choice jersey is available again.
- Gasperini said on 10 October that Svilar suffered a stress fracture to the fifth toe of his right foot in training and would be out for at least a month, possibly past the next international break.
- Italian reporting, including SkySport and DAZN, listed the goalkeeper's absence as covering about nine fixtures, with Roma-Genoa among them, and named Gollini as the replacement.
- M. Svilar started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Malen started Roma's most recent league game and has been a regular part of Gasperini's front line, so a one-match ban removes a first-choice attacker for the Genoa fixture. The ban applies only to this game because the dismissal was graded as serious foul play rather than violent conduct, which would have triggered a two-match suspension. Roma must therefore reshape the attack around Dybala and the remaining forwards against a Genoa side that defended a lead deep in their win over Fiorentina. The effect is confined to selection, since Malen is available again for the following fixtures.
- Malen was sent off in the second half of Roma's 0-0 draw at Como on 11 October for a late challenge on Kaiki.
- Italian reporting, citing SkySport, states that a direct red for serious foul play carries a single-match suspension, so he misses only Roma-Genoa.
- D. Malen started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 350 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest
De Rossi is a Roma icon whose first season as a head coach in Serie A brings him back to the Olimpico, giving an otherwise routine home fixture an unusual emotional backdrop that local coverage has already flagged. The return also sets up a direct test against Gasperini's Roma, with the home crowd's reception of De Rossi a subplot on the night. Genoa arrive with renewed confidence after their first league win, so the trip carries more than the usual gap in league positions. This is match colour rather than a demonstrated playing edge, and it should not be read as a sporting advantage for either side.
- Genoa are scheduled to visit Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on 17 October, with De Rossi returning to the ground for the first time since taking charge at Genoa.
- Corriere dello Sport reported De Rossi becoming emotional after the Fiorentina win and joking about Roma, while a Roma-focused account framed the trip as his return to the Olimpico.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Genoa entered the October international break without a league win, and the victory over Fiorentina was the first of De Rossi's tenure, arriving after he admitted he had felt close to being dismissed. The result lifts the mood before a difficult away trip and gives De Rossi a settled attacking reference in Osmajic and Messias. It is a single result against a Fiorentina side also short of form and consistency, so it tempers rather than overturns the expectation that Roma are clear favourites at home. There is no evidence yet that it has changed Genoa's underlying away performance.
- Osmajic struck after seven minutes and Junior Messias doubled the lead on 15 minutes before a Vasquez own goal made it 2-1 in Genoa's 10 October home win.
- De Rossi said the win had been missing and that 'from today Genoa's championship begins', after a run in which his position had come under public scrutiny.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's unbeaten run, strong home scoring and Genoa's scoreless away form all point the same way.
- Roma are unbeaten in 10 competitive matches (7W 3D), scoring 22 and conceding 6
- Roma at home: 3W 1D, 2.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match
- Genoa away: 0W 3L, 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match
- Roma won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Because Roma have not conceded before the break, a level first half mainly requires them to be kept out.
- Roma were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Roma have conceded 0 first-half goals in 10 competitive matches
- Genoa scored 2 first-half goals in their last match but 0 in the previous five
- Genoa average 0 first-half goals away from home
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's second-half scoring at home gives them the upper hand in the closing period.
- Roma average 1.2 second-half goals for and 0.6 against
- Roma score 1.5 and concede 0.75 in second halves at home
- Genoa average 0.33 second-half goals away
- Roma scored twice after the break against Atalanta
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's unbeaten run, strong home scoring and Genoa's scoreless away form all point the same way. Roma have drawn three of ten and Genoa have shown they can hold a point in low-scoring games.
- Roma are unbeaten in 10 competitive matches (7W 3D), scoring 22 and conceding 6
- Roma at home: 3W 1D, 2.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match
- Roma drew 3 of 10 competitive matches and Genoa drew 1 of 9
- Roma drew 2-2 with Inter at home and 0-0 at Como in their last three league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoma or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma have consistently scored before half-time while conceding none in ten first halves. Because Roma have not conceded before the break, a level first half mainly requires them to be kept out.
- Roma average 1.0 first-half goals and have conceded 0 first-half goals in 10 matches
- Roma led at half-time in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Roma were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Roma have conceded 0 first-half goals in 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRoma or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Roma's home scoring rate and the recent head-to-head scoring suggest a little over half the chance of three goals.
- Roma average 2.2 scored and 0.6 conceded across 10 competitive matches
- Roma home matches average 2.5 scored and 0.75 conceded
- Genoa score 0.33 and concede 1.33 per away match
- Three of the last five head-to-heads produced three or more goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Roma's defensive record and Genoa's low away output favour at least one side being kept out.
- Roma keep clean sheets in 6 of 10 competitive matches
- Genoa have scored 1 goal in 3 away matches
- Roma failed to score in only 1 of 10 competitive matches
- Genoa failed to score in 3 of 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's home scoring rate points to at least two goals more often than not.
- Roma score 2.5 per home match and 10 goals in 4 at home this window
- Roma scored 2+ in 6 of 10 competitive matches
- Genoa concede 1.44 per match and 1.33 per away match
- Roma scored in 9 of 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRoma over 1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa have rarely scored twice in a match and their away output is minimal.
- Genoa score 0.33 per away match, 1 goal in 3
- Roma concede 0.6 per match and kept 6 clean sheets in 10
- Genoa have 5 goals in 6 league matches
- Genoa average 1.11 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGenoa under 1.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's clean-sheet rate and Genoa's away scoring make a Roma shutout slightly more likely than not.
- Roma kept 6 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches and 2 of 4 at home
- Genoa score 0.33 per away match
- Genoa were held scoreless away at Lazio and Parma
- Roma conceded 0.6 per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGenoa not to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Roma score regularly before the break, so at least one first-half goal is more likely than not.
- Roma average 1.0 first-half goals across 10 competitive matches
- Genoa concede 0.89 first-half goals per match
- Roma scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Genoa's last match had 2 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's home second halves produce enough goals to make two or more slightly likely.
- Roma average 1.2 second-half goals for and 0.6 against
- Roma's home second halves average 1.5 for and 0.75 against
- Genoa average 0.56 for and 0.56 against after the break
- Roma's 2-2 with Inter had 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit below the 10.5 line on average.
- Roma's matches average 8.2 corners in total
- Roma home matches average 9.25 corners in total
- Genoa's matches average 9.56 total, their away games 6.67
- Genoa's most recent match had 7 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent shot totals sit below the line, so fewer than 32 is somewhat favoured.
- Roma's matches average 27.1 total shots
- Genoa's matches average 27 total shots
- Roma's last match produced 28 total shots
- Genoa's away matches average 19 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 31.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Team averages sit below the line, so fewer than 11 shots on target is slightly favoured.
- Roma's matches average 9.5 shots on target and Genoa's 7.78
- Genoa's away matches average 5 shots on target in total
- Roma's home matches average 10.5 shots on target in total
- Genoa's last match had 7 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card totals average around 3.3 to 4.0, putting the line close to even with a slight lean over.
- Roma average 1.6 yellows and their opponents 2.3, totalling 3.9
- Roma home totals average 4.0 cards
- Genoa average 1.78 yellows and their opponents 1.56, totalling 3.33
- Genoa's recent matches included 8 and 6 cards against Fiorentina and Parma
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%