Montana2Ludogorets Razgrad II3

HT 2–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/Bucharest

A single point separates these sides, and Montana's four straight league defeats, with 15 goals conceded, sit against a Ludogorets II team that has conceded one first-half goal in six away games.

It shapes as a tight match with no obvious favourite. The 4.2 on Ludogorets II to win and the 2.25 on the first half ending level are the two worthwhile prices.

Context

Montana have taken all three of their league wins at home, where they are 3W-0D-2L with eight scored and ten conceded in five matches; away they are 0W-2D-4L with five scored and 13 conceded in six. That home record is their strongest case for 13 October, against a Ludogorets II side with two wins from six away games. It is not a comfortable base: two of those five home games were heavy defeats.
- Second League table after 11 rounds (Montana, 2026): 3W-2D-6L, 13 scored, 23 conceded, 11 points, 15th place.
- Home split: 5 matches, 3W-0D-2L, 8 scored, 10 conceded. Away split: 6 matches, 0W-2D-4L, 5 scored, 13 conceded.
On 21 September 2026 Montana lost 0-5 at home to Hebar 1918, trailing 0-3 at half-time. It came at a ground where they had won three of their five home league games, so home advantage has not insulated them. The result shows a home side capable of losing its shape inside the opening half, the clearest risk hanging over Montana going into this fixture.
- Montana 0-5 Hebar 1918, Second League, 21 September 2026: first-half goals 0-3, second-half goals 0-2.
Ludogorets II's six away league games have produced two wins, one draw and three defeats, with five scored and five conceded. Only one of those conceded goals came before half-time, and they have scored two in away first halves, so early leads on the road have been rare. Their low-scoring away profile suggests any breakthrough at Montana is more likely after the break.
- Ludogorets II away league record, 28 July to 21 September 2026: 6 matches, 2W-1D-3L, 5 scored, 5 conceded.
- Away first halves in those 6 matches: 2 goals scored (0.33 per game), 1 conceded (0.17 per game).
The report, published by Dizmana on 22 September 2026, is the only sourcing for the call-up and it does not name the international window involved. Ludogorets II operate as the reserve-team pipeline feeding the senior squad, so youth national recognition is a meaningful marker inside that group. Nothing links the call-up to availability or selection for the Second League trip to Montana, so it remains background for this round rather than a playing-condition change.
- Turkish football outlet Dizmana reported on 22 September 2026 that 17-year-old Ludogorets Razgrad II player Timur Mustafa had been called up to the Bulgaria U19 national team.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

−5.1ppshort

Montana's defense concedes regularly while Ludogorets II usually find a goal away, and recent head-to-heads have been open.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montana's home advantage and earlier home wins are balanced against a four-game losing run and a defense conceding two goals a game at home.
- Montana are 3W-0D-2L at home with 8 scored and 10 conceded in 5 home league games
- Montana have lost their last four league matches, conceding 15 goals in the process
- Ludogorets II are 2W-1D-3L away with 5 scored and 5 conceded in 6 road games
- The teams are one point apart: Montana 11 points, Ludogorets II 12
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMontanaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams produce few first-half goals, so the interval score is likely to be level.
- Montana average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.0 against overall
- Ludogorets II average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against overall
- Ludogorets II away first halves average 0.33 for and 0.17 against
- Montana home first halves average 0.4 for and 1.0 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score in the second half, keeping the half level a frequent outcome.
- Montana second-half home averages: 1.2 for, 1.0 against
- Ludogorets II second-half away averages: 0.5 for, 0.67 against
- Both teams score most of their goals after the break
- Montana's recent 0-0 draw had no second-half goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's home advantage and earlier home wins are balanced against a four-game losing run and a defense conceding two goals a game at home. Ludogorets II have been the steadier side defensively and arrive in better form than a Montana team shipping goals heavily.
- Montana are 3W-0D-2L at home with 8 scored and 10 conceded in 5 home league games
- Montana have lost their last four league matches, conceding 15 goals in the process
- Ludogorets II are unbeaten in two of their last three league matches and won 3-0 at Pirin Blagoevgrad in September
- Ludogorets II away record is 2W-1D-3L with 5 scored and 5 conceded in 6 games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMontana or Ludogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce few first-half goals, so the interval score is likely to be level. Montana's record before the break and Ludogorets II's tidy away first halves make the visitors the likelier first-half winner.
- Montana average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.0 against overall
- Ludogorets II average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against overall
- Montana concede 1.0 first-half goals per home game
- Ludogorets II average 0.33 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Ludogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance79%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's leaky defense and goal-heavy recent matches point to a higher-scoring game, even though Ludogorets II matches are normally tight.
- Montana league matches average 3.17 goals combined
- Montana's last four league games produced 2, 5, 4 and 5 goals
- Four of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5
- Ludogorets II matches average only 1.9 goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Montana's defense concedes regularly while Ludogorets II usually find a goal away, and recent head-to-heads have been open.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five head-to-head meetings
- Ludogorets II have scored in 4 of their 6 away league games
- Montana have scored in 7 of 12 league matches
- Montana average 2.08 goals conceded per league match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's recent scoring form and Ludogorets II's away solidity point to few home goals.
- Montana have failed to score in four of their last six league matches
- Montana average 1.08 goals per league game
- Ludogorets II average 0.83 conceded per away match
- Montana's most recent home games ended 0-5 and 1-4
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMontana under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II's low away scoring output makes two or more goals for them unlikely.
- Ludogorets II have scored 5 goals in 6 away league games
- Ludogorets II's away scoring rate is 0.83 goals per game
- Montana kept clean sheets in 2 of 5 home games
- Ludogorets II scored more than one away goal in just 1 of 6 games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLudogorets Razgrad II under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's heavy recent concessions make a clean sheet improbable.
- Montana have conceded in each of their last four league matches
- Montana concede 2.08 goals per league game
- Ludogorets II scored in 4 of 6 away games
- Montana kept only three clean sheets in 12 league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLudogorets Razgrad II to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's home scoring output makes it more likely than not that Ludogorets II concede.
- Montana have scored in 7 of 12 league matches
- Montana scored 8 goals in 5 home league games
- Ludogorets II have conceded in 4 of 6 away games
- Montana scored three in their last home league win
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMontana to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's habit of conceding early makes at least one first-half goal more likely than not.
- Montana home first halves average 1.4 total goals (0.4 for, 1.0 against)
- Ludogorets II away first halves average 0.5 total goals
- Montana conceded first-half goals in three of their last four defeats
- Ludogorets II conceded a first-half goal in only 1 of 6 away games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes at least one team blank at the break very likely.
- Montana average 0.4 first-half goals at home and Ludogorets II 0.33 away
- Ludogorets II conceded a first-half goal once in six away games
- Montana conceded first-half goals in several recent defeats
- Ludogorets II's away first halves average 0.5 total goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II's subdued scoring makes fewer than two second-half goals the marginal favourite.
- Ludogorets II away second halves average 1.17 total goals
- Ludogorets II score 0.5 and concede 0.67 after the break away
- Ludogorets II are low-scoring overall at 0.9 goals per game
- Three of their last six league games produced one goal or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%