Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Ludogorets Razgrad II1Fratria Varna1

HT 0–0Tue 15 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Fratria Varna are slight favorites on form, but the odds overstate their edge.

The best value is the first-half double chance (draw or Fratria Varna) at 1.67, which matches our 60% probability. Avoid over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.35, as the market implies 74.1% versus our 60% estimate.

Context

Fratria Varna are 4th in the Second League with 15 points from 8 matches.
Their away record is 1 win and 2 draws from 3 games, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. This suggests they are hard to beat away from home, though the sample is small. Ludogorets Razgrad II have only 1 win in 3 home matches, so Fratria's away stability could matter.
- Fratria Varna away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses in 3 matches.
- They scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in those away games.
Ivan Stoyanov is the new head coach of Ludogorets Razgrad II, appointed on 3 September 2026 after replacing Todor Zhivondov.
His first match in charge is against Fratria Varna, so the home side's lineup and tactical approach may differ from previous games. The change creates uncertainty for both teams, as Fratria cannot fully prepare for Ludogorets' setup.
- Ludogorets announced Ivan Stoyanov as the new head coach of Ludogorets II on 3 September 2026.
- The club stated that Stoyanov replaced Todor Zhivondov and would make his official debut against Pirin.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/BucharestPFC Ludogorets 1945 — Ivan Stoyanov appointedludogorets.com · 3 Sep 2026
Ludogorets Razgrad II are 12th in the Second League with 11 points from 8 matches.
At home they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 3 and conceding 4. That is a weak home record compared to their away form, where they have 2 wins in 5. Fratria Varna's away solidity may expose this home weakness.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II home record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in 3 matches.
- They scored 3 goals and conceded 4 at home.
Fratria Varna are 4th with 15 points, 6 points behind leader Vihren.
They are only 2 points behind 2nd-placed CSKA Sofia II, so a win here could move them closer to automatic promotion. Ludogorets Razgrad II are mid-table with less at stake, which may affect how each team approaches the game.
- Fratria Varna are 4th with 15 points, 6 points behind leader Vihren.
- They are 2 points behind 2nd-placed CSKA Sofia II.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Fratria Varna

1.88fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

Fratria Varna's superior league position and unbeaten away record give them a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimates.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Fratria Varna

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Fratria Varna's low loss rate and Ludogorets II's inconsistent home form make the away side or draw the most likely double chance outcome, but the odds are slightly short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria Varna's superior league position and unbeaten away record give them a slight edge, though Ludogorets II's home advantage and new coach uncertainty keep the probability moderate.
- Fratria Varna are 4th with 15 points from 8 games; Ludogorets II are 12th with 11 points.
- Fratria Varna away record: 1W 2D 0L, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded in 3 away matches.
- Ludogorets II home record: 1W 1D 1L, 3 goals scored, 4 conceded in 3 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Ludogorets II 1W, Fratria Varna 1W, 2 draws (one match missing).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria Varna's low loss rate and Ludogorets II's inconsistent home form make the away side or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Fratria Varna have lost only 1 of 8 league matches this season.
- Ludogorets II have lost 3 of 8 league matches.
- Fratria Varna away record: 1W 2D 0L.
- Ludogorets II home record: 1W 1D 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Fratria VarnaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, making a first-half draw a plausible outcome.
- Ludogorets II led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 40%.
- Fratria Varna led at half-time in 43% of matches, trailed in 29%, drew in 28%.
- Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high draw rate.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria Varna's slightly better second-half scoring and overall form give them a marginal edge to win the second half.
- Fratria Varna have a better overall goal difference (+5 vs 0).
- Fratria Varna tend to score more in the second half (0.8 vs 0.7).
- Ludogorets II have conceded more second-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Fratria Varna win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' profiles.
- First-half draw probability estimated at 40%.
- Fratria Varna full-time win probability estimated at 42%.
- Combined probability: 0.40 * 0.42 = 0.168, but adjusted for correlation.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Fratria VarnaEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II lead at half-time in only 40% of matches, so the away side or draw is more likely at the break.
- Ludogorets II first-half win rate: 40%.
- Fratria Varna first-half win rate: 43%.
- Draw rate: 40% for Ludogorets II, 28% for Fratria Varna.
- Combined probability of draw or Fratria Varna leading at half-time: 1 - 0.40 = 0.60.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Fratria VarnaEstimated chance60%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have often produced over 2.5 goals, but the overall averages are close to the line, so confidence is low.
- Ludogorets II average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Fratria Varna average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.4 (home) + 2.5 (away) = 4.9 total team averages, but match total average is 2.4.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 1-1, 5-0, 2-2, 2-0 (one missing) - 3 of 4 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making both teams scoring a likely outcome.
- Ludogorets II have scored in 6 of their last 8 league matches.
- Fratria Varna have scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Ludogorets II have conceded in 6 of their last 8 league matches.
- Fratria Varna have conceded in 5 of their last 8 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals a reasonable bet.
- Ludogorets II average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Fratria Varna average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1 goals per match.
- In recent matches, both teams have scored in the first half in 5 of their combined last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is right at the line, making over 1.5 a coin flip with low confidence.
- Ludogorets II average 0.7 second-half goals scored (total 1.4 - 0.7 first half).
- Fratria Varna average 0.8 second-half goals scored (total 1.6 - 0.8 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.5 goals per match.
- Recent matches show second-half goals in most games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 28% leaves no cushion vs our 30% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 2W

D1-1Ludogorets IIvFratriaMar 15, 2026SEC

L5-0FratriavLudogorets IISep 6, 2025SEC

D2-2FratriavLudogorets IIMar 16, 2025SEC

L2-0Ludogorets IIvFratriaSep 2, 2024SEC

Fratria Varna unbeaten in 4 meetingsFratria Varna: 2 clean sheets3.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	8	3	2	3	8-8	11	WLDDL
4	Fratria Varna	8	4	3	1	11-6	15	DDWDW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form