Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Spartak Pleven1Ludogorets Razgrad II0

HT 0–0Mon 21 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges1–713%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 06:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Ludogorets Razgrad II are the value side: the away win at ~2.80 (36% implied vs 48% model) and the draw-or-away double chance at 1.53 both carry edges, backed by Spartak's 15 goals conceded in their last five and Ludogorets II's four goals conceded in five away games.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is the other actionable angle, while the home win at 2.25 is overpriced on stale H2H venue form. Watch the new-coach factor and Adelani's unresolved availability as the main uncertainties.

Context

Spartak Pleven have 10 points from nine Second League games and are listed in a relegation position, with a -9 goal difference. Ludogorets Razgrad II are 10th on 12 points.
The table gap between these two teams is only two points, so a Pleven win would pull them level or above Ludogorets II. Pleven's home record is two wins and two losses from four home games, with five goals scored and six conceded, which shows they have won half their home matches but also lost half. That makes home advantage a real but limited factor rather than a clear edge.
- Spartak Pleven are 15th with 10 points from nine matches and are listed under the relegation description.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II are 10th with 12 points from nine matches, two points clear of Pleven.
- Pleven's home record is two wins, zero draws and two losses in four home games, scoring five and conceding six.
Spartak Pleven have conceded 19 goals in nine league games, an average of 1.9 per match, the worst defensive record among the teams around them in the table.
Those two heavy away defeats show Pleven can be opened up when they travel, but this match is at home, where they have conceded six in four games. The relevant question is whether the home setting reduces that leakiness. Their home results include a 3-2 win over Hebar 1918 on 7 September and a 2-0 loss to Vihren on 30 August, so home form has been mixed rather than consistently solid.
- Spartak Pleven lost 3-0 away to Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on 13 September 2026.
- Spartak Pleven lost 5-1 away to CSKA Sofia II on 3 September 2026.
- Pleven's season average is 1.9 goals conceded per game across nine league matches.
Ivan Stoyanov is identified as Ludogorets II head coach in the club's 16 September report, after Todor Zhivondov left at the start of September. The same report described Ludogorets II leading through Kristiyan Nikolov's 83rd-minute goal before Fratria equalised a minute later following a collective defensive error.
That recent appointment makes selection and late-game defensive organisation under Stoyanov relevant for this away match, and the 1-1 draw with Fratria is the clearest available sample of how the side managed a late lead. It is a single match under the current lead, so it shows a late collective defensive lapse rather than establishing a settled pattern.
- Ludogorets announced on 1 September that Todor Zhivondov would no longer lead Ludogorets II after a mutual separation.
- In its 16 September report on the 1-1 draw with Fratria, Ludogorets identified Ivan Stoyanov as head coach.
- The club said Ludogorets II led through Kristiyan Nikolov's 83rd-minute goal before Fratria equalised a minute later after a collective defensive error.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 06:19 · Europe/BucharestPFC Ludogorets 1945: Todor Zhivondov and Ludogorets II part ways by mutual consentludogorets.com · 1 Sep 2026PFC Ludogorets 1945: Ludogorets II draw with Fratrialudogorets.com · 16 Sep 2026
Ludogorets Razgrad II sit 10th with 12 points from nine games and a goal difference of zero, having scored nine and conceded nine.
That four-match unbeaten run includes a 1-1 home draw with Fratria on 15 September, a 3-0 away win at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 7 September, and 1-1 draws with Hebar 1918 and CSKA Sofia II. The run shows they are difficult to beat but also that they have drawn three of those four, so they are not converting solidity into wins. Their away record is two wins, one draw and two losses from five away games.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II drew 1-1 at home with Fratria on 15 September 2026.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II won 3-0 away at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 7 September 2026.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II have drawn three of their last four league matches, conceding one goal in that run.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II's superior goal difference, better away defensive record (4 GA in 5) and Spartak's collapsing recent form (15 goals conceded in 5) give the visitors the edge, though the H2H home pattern for Spartak keeps this at medium confidence.
- Ludogorets II sit 10th on 12 pts with a 0 goal difference (9 GF, 9 GA) after 9 rounds, while Spartak Pleven are 15th on 10 pts with -9 (10 GF, 19 GA).
- Ludogorets II away record: 2W-1D-2L, 5 GF, 4 GA in 5 away matches; Spartak home record: 2W-0D-2L, 5 GF, 6 GA in 4 home matches.
- Spartak's last 5 league matches: L, W, L, L, L with 4 goals scored and 15 conceded; Ludogorets II's last 5 league: D, W, L, D, D.
- H2H last 5: Ludogorets II won 3-1 at home in May 2026 and 3-2 at Pleven in Sep 2024; Spartak won the two Pleven meetings in Nov 2025 and Mar 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLudogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II's solid away defensive record and Spartak's leaky defence (19 GA in 9) make a draw-or-away result the strong side of this market, with the H2H home wins for Spartak the main counterweight.
- Ludogorets II have drawn 3 of 9 league matches and lost only 3, with a 0 goal difference; they have avoided defeat in 6 of 9.
- Spartak Pleven have lost 5 of 9 and conceded 19 goals, the second-worst defensive record in the division after Pirin Blagoevgrad.
- Spartak's home form is 2W-0D-2L — no home draws this season, but they have lost both home games against top-half opposition.
- Ludogorets II away: 2W-1D-2L, with only 4 goals conceded in 5 away fixtures.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Ludogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Spartak's poor half-time profile (trailing 53%, leading 7%) against Ludogorets II's stronger first-half scoring rate points to the visitors leading at the break, but the low sample makes this a low-confidence call.
- Ludogorets II have led at half-time in 33% of recent matches versus Spartak's 7%.
- Spartak have trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Ludogorets II average 0.6 first-half goals; Spartak average 0.3 scored and 0.9 conceded before the break.
- Spartak's last 5 league matches: half-time results were L, D, L, D, L — only one half-time lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLudogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's inability to lead at half-time (7%) and Ludogorets II's low half-time trailing rate (20%) make the draw-or-away first-half double chance the safer side.
- Spartak Pleven have led at half-time in only 7% of recent matches and trailed in 53%.
- Ludogorets II have led at half-time in 33% and trailed in 20% of recent matches.
- Spartak's last 5 league half-time results: L, D, L, D, L — no half-time wins.
- Ludogorets II's last 5 league half-time results: D, W, L, D, D — only one half-time deficit.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Ludogorets Razgrad IIEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II's high draw rate (3 of last 5) and the narrow 2-point gap make a draw a plausible low-confidence outcome, though Spartak's own low draw rate limits the case.
- Ludogorets II have drawn 3 of 9 league matches and 3 of their last 5 (D, W, L, D, D).
- Spartak Pleven have drawn only 1 of 9 league matches and none of their last 5.
- H2H last 5 includes one draw (1-1 in March 2024).
- Both teams are separated by only 2 points (12 vs 10) in the table.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance26%

Goals3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's matches are running at 3.2 goals per game and their defence has conceded 15 in the last 5, so even a moderate Ludogorets II attack should push this over the line.
- Spartak Pleven's 9 league matches have produced 29 goals (10 GF, 19 GA) — an average of 3.2 per game.
- Spartak's last 5 league matches alone produced 4 goals for and 15 against (19 total, 3.8 per game).
- Ludogorets II's 9 league matches have produced 18 goals (9 GF, 9 GA) — 2.0 per game, but their away games average 1.8.
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 3, 2, 2, 5 and 2 goals — three of five went over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak score at home (5 in 4) but concede heavily, while Ludogorets II have scored in 5 of 6 recent league games, making both-teams-to-score the value side despite the two 2-0 H2H results.
- Spartak Pleven have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches (3, 1, 0, 0, 0) but have conceded in all 5.
- Ludogorets II have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches and conceded in 4 of those 6.
- Spartak's home record shows 5 goals scored and 6 conceded in 4 home games — both teams scoring in most.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings (3-1, 2-0, 2-0, 3-2, 1-1).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's tendency to trail at half-time (53%) combined with Ludogorets II's 0.6 first-half goals average makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Spartak Pleven average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded across their recent sample.
- Ludogorets II average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Spartak have trailed at half-time in 53% of their recent matches and led in only 7%.
- Ludogorets II have led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates and Spartak's heavy concession pattern (15 goals in 5) support second-half goals, with Ludogorets II's late-goal tendency adding weight.
- Spartak Pleven's recent matches average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded (derived from 1.0 total GF minus 0.3 first-half GF).
- Ludogorets II average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.3 total GF minus 0.6 first-half GF).
- Spartak's last 5 league matches produced 19 total goals, with the majority coming after half-time in the 3-2 and 1-5 games.
- Ludogorets II's 1-1 draw with Fratria saw both goals after the 83rd minute, showing late-game goal activity.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's defence has conceded in every recent league match and averages 2.1 goals against per game, making a home clean sheet highly unlikely against a Ludogorets II side that scores regularly.
- Spartak Pleven have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 league matches (3, 2, 5, 2, 3 goals against).
- Spartak have conceded 19 goals in 9 league matches — 2.1 per game.
- Ludogorets II have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Spartak's home record shows 6 goals conceded in 4 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLudogorets Razgrad II to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak score at a reasonable home rate (5 in 4) and Ludogorets II have conceded in most recent league games, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Spartak Pleven have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches and 10 goals in 9 league games.
- Spartak's home record shows 5 goals scored in 4 home matches.
- Ludogorets II have conceded in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Ludogorets II away record shows 4 goals conceded in 5 away matches — a clean sheet in only some.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpartak Pleven to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's scoring is inconsistent (three blanks in five) and Ludogorets II concede little away (4 in 5), making under 1.5 home goals the more likely outcome.
- Spartak Pleven average 1.0 goals per game across their recent sample and have scored 10 in 9 league matches.
- Spartak have scored 5 goals in 4 home matches — 1.25 per home game.
- In their last 5 league matches Spartak scored 0, 3, 1, 0, 0 — three blanks.
- Ludogorets II away record shows only 4 goals conceded in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSpartak Pleven under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ludogorets II score consistently away (5 in 5) and Spartak concede in every recent match, making at least one away goal very likely.
- Ludogorets II have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches and average 1.3 goals per game.
- Ludogorets II away record: 5 goals scored in 5 away matches — 1.0 per away game.
- Spartak Pleven have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 league matches.
- Spartak have conceded 19 goals in 9 league matches, 2.1 per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLudogorets Razgrad II over 0.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's home scoring rate (5 in 4) and Ludogorets II's regular concession of away goals make a win-to-nil for the visitors unlikely.
- Spartak Pleven have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches and 10 goals in 9 league games.
- Spartak's home record shows 5 goals scored in 4 home matches.
- Ludogorets II have kept a clean sheet in only some of their recent matches, conceding in 4 of the last 6 league games.
- Ludogorets II away record: 4 goals conceded in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L3-1Ludogorets IIvSpartak PlevenMay 23, 2026SEC

W2-0Spartak PlevenvLudogorets IINov 24, 2025SEC

W2-0Spartak PlevenvLudogorets IIMar 29, 2025SEC

L3-2Ludogorets IIvSpartak PlevenSep 14, 2024SEC

D1-1Spartak PlevenvLudogorets IIMar 31, 2024SEC

Spartak Pleven: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Spartak Pleven Relegation	9	3	1	5	10-19	10	LWLLL
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	9	3	3	3	9-9	12	DWLDD

2pt gap between teamsSpartak Pleven in relegation zone

Recent Form

Spartak Pleven

L0-3Chernomorets 1919 BurgasSep 13SEC

W3-2Hebar 1918Sep 7SEC

L1-5CSKA Sofia IISep 3SEC

L0-2VihrenAug 30SEC

L0-3BeroeAug 25SEC

L0-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 16SEC

D2-2Rilski SportistAug 9SEC

W2-1MarekAug 1SEC

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 25SEC

L1-3MontanaJul 18FRI

L0-2Hapoel Petah TikvaJul 14FRI

L1-2Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 11FRI

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 7FRI

L0-1Cherno More VarnaJul 3FRI

L1-2Botev VratsaJul 1FRI

Ludogorets Razgrad II

D1-1FratriaSep 15SEC

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradSep 7SEC

L0-1Chernomorets 1919 BurgasSep 2SEC

D1-1Hebar 1918Aug 29SEC

D1-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 25SEC

L0-2VihrenAug 18SEC

L0-2BeroeAug 10SEC

W2-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 3SEC

W1-0Rilski SportistJul 28SEC

W2-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 18FRI

W2-0Chernomorets Burgas SofiaJul 8FRI

L2-3Yantra 2019Jul 4FRI

D1-1NesebarJul 1FRI

W3-1Spartak PlevenMay 23SEC

L0-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 15SEC

Squad & Injuries

Spartak Pleven

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Ludogorets Razgrad II

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ludogorets Razgrad II

Draw or Ludogorets Razgrad II

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Ludogorets Razgrad II to score

Over 0.5

No

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Spartak Pleven

Ludogorets Razgrad II

Squad & Injuries

Spartak Pleven

Ludogorets Razgrad II