Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Montana0Hebar Pazardzhik5

HT 0–3Mon 21 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 06:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Montana's home record (3W-0D-1L) and Hebar's away struggles (1W-1D-3L) give the hosts a modest edge, but the market has overpriced it — Montana at 1.85 and the home-or-draw at 1.24 both carry negative value.

The actionable angles are goals-based: BTTS Yes at 1.73 offers a slim edge, while first-half Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is the clearest avoid given both teams' low first-half scoring rates.

Context

Montana sit 14th in the Second League on 11 points, level with Hebar but with a worse goal difference of -3. Their season has been sharply divided between home and away results.
At home Montana have taken 9 points from 4 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Away they have 2 points from 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 11. That gap means the venue is the main reason to expect a more competitive Montana than the side that lost 0-4 at CSKA Sofia II on 13 September. The limit is that home form alone does not fix their overall defensive record of 16 goals conceded in 9 matches.
- Montana home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 8 goals for, 5 against in 4 league games.
- Montana away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 5 goals for, 11 against in 5 league games.
- Montana lost 0-4 away at CSKA Sofia II on 13 September 2026 and lost 1-4 at home to Vihren on 8 September 2026.
Hebar are 13th on 11 points, one place above Montana on goal difference. They have scored more than any team outside the top two but also conceded heavily.
Hebar's 18 goals in 9 games is the joint-highest total in the league outside the leading sides, but their 17 conceded is among the worst in the division. Their most recent match, a 4-1 home win over Etar Veliko Tarnovo on 14 September 2026, shows the attack working, while the 2-3 away loss at Spartak Pleven on 7 September shows the defensive risk. This pattern means Montana can expect chances even if Hebar control spells of the game.
- Hebar league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 18 goals for, 17 against in 9 games.
- Hebar won 4-1 at home to Etar Veliko Tarnovo on 14 September 2026.
- Hebar lost 2-3 away at Spartak Pleven on 7 September 2026.
The Second League relegation line sits at 13th place. Hebar are 13th and Montana 14th, separated only by goal difference, with Hebar at +1 and Montana at -3.
Because the two teams are level on points and both inside the relegation places, a win for either side moves them above the other and out of the bottom group, while a draw keeps the gap unchanged. The table context raises the value of the match without changing either team's available players or shape. The limit is that with 9 games played, the table is still early enough that one result does not settle either team's season.
- Hebar are 13th on 11 points with a goal difference of +1.
- Montana are 14th on 11 points with a goal difference of -3.
- The relegation line in the Second League is 13th place.
Hebar head coach Nikolay Mitov said after the 14 September 4-1 home win over Etar that his side was not yet fully assembled in defence and that considerable work remained there.
That leaves Hebar's defensive organisation and the certainty of their away selection as live considerations for this match. The comment is a reported post-match assessment rather than a confirmed lineup change, so it should be read as an unresolved area of the team rather than a settled weakness.
- Following Hebar's 4-1 home win over Etar on 14 September, Mitov said the side was not yet fully assembled in defence.
- Mitov added that there was still considerable work to do defensively.
ReportedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 06:23 · Europe/BucharestGol.bgwww.gol.bg · 14 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Montana

1.85fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Montana at 54% implied while our home/away-split model gives only 44%, so the home win is overpriced rather than a value edge.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Montana or Draw

1.24fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 81%

0.0ppshort

Our 68% estimate sits well below the 81% implied by the 1.24 price, so the safest-looking play is actually the most overpriced.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Montana to score

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Hebar have kept only one clean sheet in nine and concede 2.4 per away game, while Montana score 2.0 per home game, making a Hebar shutout unlikely despite the short price.

Away Win to NillostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Hebar have one clean sheet in nine and their coach admits the defence is unfinished, while Montana score 2.0 per home game, making a Hebar win-to-nil very unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is the strongest signal: Montana are 3W-0D-1L at home while Hebar are 1W-1D-3L on the road, and the H2H shows the home side winning 2 of the last 4 meetings, giving Montana a modest but real home edge.
- Montana home record 2026 Second League: 3W-0D-1L, 8 goals for, 5 against in 4 home matches (season to date).
- Hebar away record: 1W-1D-3L, 10 goals for, 12 against in 5 away matches (season to date).
- Montana's last 5 league matches: L, L, D, W, L — but their only home league win in that run was 3-0 vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.
- Hebar's last 5 league matches: W, L, D, D, W — 4-1 home win over Etar on 14 September was their strongest recent result.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMontanaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's strong home split (3W-0D-1L) combined with Hebar's poor away form (1W-1D-3L) makes the home-or-draw double chance the safest match-result play, though Hebar's 4-1 win over Etar shows they can score.
- Montana home: 3W-0D-1L (8 GF, 5 GA) in 4 home league matches this season.
- Hebar away: 1W-1D-3L (10 GF, 12 GA) in 5 away league matches this season.
- H2H last 4: Montana won 2, Hebar won 2 — no draws, but both Montana wins came at home.
- Montana's last 5 league results: L, L, D, W, L — 2 of 5 were draws or wins at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMontana or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently reach half-time level (Hebar drew at HT in 3 of last 5, Montana in 2 of last 5), and neither side dominates first halves, making the HT draw the most likely single outcome.
- Montana first-half record: leading at HT 13%, trailing at HT 33% (last 15 matches).
- Hebar first-half record: leading at HT 14%, trailing at HT 29% (last 15 matches).
- Montana's last 5 league matches: HT results were L, L, D, W, D — two draws.
- Hebar's last 5 league matches: HT results were W, D, D, D, D — three draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montana's tendency to trail at half-time (33%) combined with Hebar's habit of reaching the break level or ahead makes the away-or-draw first-half double chance a reasonable low-confidence play.
- Montana trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Hebar led at half-time in 14% and drew in a high share of recent matches.
- Hebar's last 5 league matches: HT results W, D, D, D, D — only one loss at half-time.
- Montana's last 5 league matches: HT results L, L, D, W, D — two losses at half-time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Hebar PazardzhikEstimated chance58%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal involvement this season (Hebar 3.9, Montana 3.2 goals per game) and Hebar's recent matches have been open, so Over 2.5 is the value side of the goals market.
- Hebar's last 5 league matches produced 4-1, 2-3, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 — three of five went over 2.5 goals.
- Montana's last 5 league matches produced 0-4, 1-4, 0-0, 3-0, 1-2 — three of five went over 2.5 goals.
- Hebar season totals: 18 goals for, 17 against in 9 matches (3.9 goals per game combined).
- Montana season totals: 13 goals for, 16 against in 9 matches (3.2 goals per game combined).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences are leaky (Hebar 17 GA, Montana 16 GA in 9 games) and both attacks have shown scoring output, making BTTS Yes a reasonable play despite Montana's recent 0-4 and 1-4 losses.
- Hebar scored in 8 of their last 9 league matches (18 goals in 9 games).
- Montana scored in 5 of their last 9 league matches, but 8 goals in 4 home games shows home scoring threat.
- Hebar conceded in 7 of their last 9 league matches (17 goals against in 9 games).
- Montana conceded in 7 of their last 9 league matches (16 goals against in 9 games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 0.5-0.6 first-half goals and recent matches show first-half goals in 3 of 5 for each side, making Over 0.5 first-half goals a solid low-line play.
- Montana average first-half goals: 0.6 scored, 0.8 conceded per match (last 15).
- Hebar average first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.6 conceded per match (last 15).
- Hebar's last 5 league matches: first-half scores of 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0 — three of five had first-half goals.
- Montana's last 5 league matches: first-half scores of 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 — three of five had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been the highest-scoring period for both teams recently, with Hebar's transition-based attacks (per Etar's match report) likely to exploit space late, supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Montana's last 5 league matches: second-half goals of 4, 4, 0, 2, 1 — three of five had 2+ second-half goals.
- Hebar's last 5 league matches: second-half goals of 3, 3, 2, 1, 1 — three of five had 2+ second-half goals.
- Hebar's 4-1 win over Etar on 14 September featured 3 second-half goals.
- Montana's 1-4 loss to Vihren and 0-4 loss to CSKA Sofia II both had 3+ second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's consistent scoring output (18 goals in 9 league games, scoring in 8 of 9) makes a Montana clean sheet unlikely, even accounting for Montana's decent home defensive record.
- Montana conceded in 7 of their last 9 league matches (16 goals against in 9 games).
- Hebar scored in 8 of their last 9 league matches (18 goals in 9 games).
- Hebar scored 4 goals in their most recent match (4-1 vs Etar, 14 September).
- Montana's last 5 league matches: conceded 4, 4, 0, 0, 2 — conceded in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHebar Pazardzhik to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's away defence has been poor (12 goals conceded in 5 away games) and their coach admitted the defensive unit is still unfinished, making a Hebar clean sheet unlikely.
- Hebar conceded in 7 of their last 9 league matches (17 goals against in 9 games).
- Montana scored 8 goals in 4 home league matches this season (2.0 per game).
- Hebar's away record: 12 goals conceded in 5 away matches (2.4 per game).
- Montana scored in 5 of their last 9 league matches, including 3-0 and 3-1 home wins.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMontana to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montana average 2.0 goals per home game and Hebar concede heavily away (2.4 per game), with Hebar's own coach flagging defensive issues, supporting Over 1.5 Montana goals.
- Montana scored 8 goals in 4 home league matches this season (2.0 per game).
- Montana's home matches: 3-0 win, 3-1 win, 1-4 loss, 1-0 win — three of four had 2+ Montana goals.
- Hebar conceded 12 goals in 5 away matches (2.4 per game).
- Hebar's coach stated the defence is not yet fully assembled (14 September).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMontana over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar average 2.0 goals per away game and have scored in 8 of 9 league matches, while Montana's home defence concedes 1.25 per game, making Over 1.5 Hebar goals a reasonable play.
- Hebar scored 10 goals in 5 away league matches this season (2.0 per game).
- Hebar scored in 8 of their last 9 league matches overall.
- Montana conceded 11 goals in 5 away matches and 5 in 4 home matches (1.25 per home game).
- Hebar's 4-1 win over Etar on 14 September showed their attacking output.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHebar Pazardzhik over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montana have kept just one clean sheet in nine league games while Hebar score consistently (8 of 9 matches), making a Montana win-to-nil highly unlikely.
- Montana kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 9 league matches (0-0 vs Beroe).
- Hebar scored in 8 of their last 9 league matches.
- Montana's home record includes a 1-4 loss to Vihren, showing defensive vulnerability.
- Hebar's away scoring rate is 2.0 goals per game this season.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar have kept just one clean sheet in nine league games and their coach admits defensive work remains, while Montana score 2.0 per home game, making a Hebar win-to-nil very unlikely.
- Hebar kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 9 league matches (1-0 vs Chernomorets).
- Montana scored 8 goals in 4 home league matches (2.0 per game).
- Hebar's coach said the defence is still unfinished (14 September).
- Hebar conceded 12 goals in 5 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance80%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion against our 44% estimate; the price already reflects the home/away split and ignores Montana's leaking defence.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 1W

W0-3Hebar 1918vMontanaMar 9, 2022SEC

L0-1MontanavHebar 1918Aug 23, 2021SEC

W2-1MontanavHebar 1918Feb 22, 2020SEC

W1-3Hebar 1918vMontanaAug 3, 2019SEC

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Montana Relegation	9	3	2	4	13-16	11	LLDWL
13	Hebar Pazardzhik Vtora liga (Relegation)	9	3	2	4	18-17	11	WLDDW

Montana in relegation zoneHebar Pazardzhik in relegation zone

Recent Form

Montana

L0-4CSKA Sofia IISep 13SEC

L1-4VihrenSep 8SEC

D0-0BeroeSep 3SEC

W3-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 30SEC

L1-2Rilski SportistAug 22SEC

W1-0MarekAug 16SEC

L2-3Yantra 2019Aug 11SEC

W3-1NesebarAug 4SEC

D2-2Sportist SvogeJul 25SEC

W3-1Spartak PlevenJul 18FRI

L2-7Slavia SofiaJul 11FRI

D1-1CSKA Sofia IIJul 1FRI

L0-2Slavia SofiaMay 22FIR

L0-2Spartak VarnaMay 18FIR

L0-1Botev VratsaMay 14FIR

Hebar Pazardzhik

W4-1Etar Veliko TarnovoSep 14SEC

L2-3Spartak PlevenSep 7SEC

D1-1FratriaSep 1SEC

D1-1Ludogorets IIAug 29SEC

W1-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasAug 23SEC

W3-2Pirin BlagoevgradAug 18SEC

L3-4CSKA Sofia IIAug 11SEC

L2-3VihrenAug 2SEC

L1-2BeroeJul 24SEC

L1-2Septemvri SofiaJul 7FRI

L0-1BallkaniJun 24FRI

L0-1Sportist SvogeMay 23SEC

D1-1MarekMay 15SEC

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 10SEC

L1-2Ludogorets IIMay 4SEC

Squad & Injuries

Montana

27 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Hebar Pazardzhik

23 available

Attackers9

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Montana

Montana or Draw

Hebar Pazardzhik to score

Montana to score

No

No

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals6 of 10 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Montana

Hebar Pazardzhik

Squad & Injuries

Montana

Hebar Pazardzhik