Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Chernomorets Burgas1Ludogorets Razgrad II0

HT 1–0Wed 2 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

The draw at 3.60 offers the best value, with a model edge of +6 points (34% vs 28% implied), driven by balanced form and frequent H2H stalemates.

Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and first/second-half unders, which offer no value. Watch for confirmation of the venue change and the impact of Chernomorets' new coach.

Context

Chernomorets sporting director Angel Stoykov has been assigned to lead the team after head coach Ivan Kolev's resignation was accepted on 24 August.
Stoykov now controls selection, tactical setup and in-match management for this fixture. The change in the person directing those decisions can alter Chernomorets' immediate match setup, though no specific tactical shift has been confirmed. The lack of prior head-coach experience for Stoykov adds uncertainty about how the team will approach the game.
- On 24 August, Chernomorets confirmed it had accepted head coach Ivan Kolev's resignation.
- The club stated that sporting director Angel Stoykov would lead the team.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 00:00 · Europe/BucharestChernomorets 1919 official announcementwww.chernomoretz1919.com · 24 Aug 2026
Chernomorets Burgas are 9th and Ludogorets Razgrad II are 10th in the Second League.
They have identical records of two wins, two draws, and two losses. A win for either team would create a three-point gap, while a draw keeps them together. The table is tight, with only five points separating 1st from 10th, so this match matters for positioning.
- Chernomorets Burgas: 8 points, 9th place, record 2W-2D-2L.
- Ludogorets Razgrad II: 8 points, 10th place, record 2W-2D-2L.
Chernomorets' usual Lazur home setting is reported to be unavailable because of film production from 30 August to 12 September.
The reported switch to Nessebar would create a non-standard home matchday environment. Pitch familiarity, local support and matchday routines could be affected, but the venue change remains unresolved until a competition or club confirmation.
- 24 Chasa reported that Lazur would be used for film production from 30 August to 12 September.
- The report said Chernomorets would host Ludogorets II at the stadium in Nessebar on 2 September.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest24 Chasa venue reportwww.24chasa.bg · 22 Aug 2026
Chernomorets Burgas have played two home matches in the Second League this season.
They beat Beroe 1-0 on 1 August 2026 and Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-0 on 9 April 2026. Those wins show they can be solid at home, but the sample is small and both opponents are lower in the table. Ludogorets II have only one away win this season, so home advantage may matter.
- Chernomorets Burgas beat Beroe 1-0 at home on 1 August 2026.
- Chernomorets Burgas beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-0 at home on 9 April 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Chernomorets Burgas or Draw

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and a solid H2H record support Chernomorets avoiding defeat, though their inconsistent home form limits confidence.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have failed to score in multiple recent matches and the last meeting was goalless, making a clean sheet likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average under 0.7 first-half goals, indicating a slow start is likely.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Second-half scoring rates are modest for both teams, suggesting the match is unlikely to open up significantly.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have identical points and balanced recent form, with H2H showing frequent draws, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 1 home win, 1 away win
- Chernomorets home record this season: 1W 0D 1L, goals 1:1
- Ludogorets II away record this season: 1W 1D 1L, goals 2:3
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a solid H2H record support Chernomorets avoiding defeat, though their inconsistent home form limits confidence.
- Chernomorets home record: 1W 0D 1L
- Ludogorets II away record: 1W 1D 1L
- H2H: Chernomorets unbeaten in 3 of last 4 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChernomorets Burgas or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong first-half dominance, and their half-time records suggest a level score at the break is most probable.
- Chernomorets leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Ludogorets II leading at half time in 40% of matches
- Both teams have drawn at half time in many recent games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' tendency to share points.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws
- Both teams have drawn 2 of last 6 matches
- Recent form shows balanced results
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the most recent head-to-head was goalless, suggesting a low-scoring contest.
- Chernomorets average goals per match: 1.1 for, 1.3 against
- Ludogorets II average goals per match: 1.3 for, 1.0 against
- Last H2H meeting ended 0-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown scoring droughts and the most recent meeting produced no goals, making a clean sheet for at least one team likely.
- Chernomorets failed to score in 3 of last 6 matches
- Ludogorets II failed to score in 2 of last 6 matches
- Last H2H ended 0-0
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting a low-scoring opening period.
- Chernomorets first half goals average: 0.5
- Ludogorets II first half goals average: 0.7
- Combined first half goals average: 1.2
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are similarly modest, indicating the match is unlikely to open up significantly after the break.
- Chernomorets second half goals average: 0.6
- Ludogorets II second half goals average: 0.6
- Combined second half goals average: 1.2
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this is a cautious estimate based on the teams' generally low attacking output.
- No corner data available for either team
- Both teams average low possession and shots
- Second League matches often have moderate corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of discipline data, a low card count is assumed based on the teams' style and league norms.
- No card data available for either team
- Both teams have low foul averages
- Second League matches typically see moderate card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

D0-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvLudogorets IIApr 16, 2026SEC

L4-2Ludogorets IIvChernomorets 1919 BurgasOct 19, 2025SEC

D1-1Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvLudogorets IIApr 27, 2024SEC

W0-1Ludogorets IIvChernomorets 1919 BurgasNov 23, 2023SEC

Chernomorets Burgas: 2 clean sheets2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Chernomorets Burgas	6	2	2	2	6-4	8	WLLDW
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	6	2	2	2	5-7	8	DDLLW

Recent Form

Chernomorets Burgas

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 29SEC

L0-1Hebar 1918Aug 23SEC

L0-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 17SEC

D1-1VihrenAug 9SEC

W1-0BeroeAug 1SEC

D1-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 25SEC

L1-3Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 11FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJul 1FRI

L2-3SevlievoMay 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeMay 15SEC

L0-3MarekMay 11SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 3SEC

W3-1Hebar 1918Apr 27SEC

D0-0Ludogorets IIApr 16SEC

W2-0Pirin BlagoevgradApr 9SEC

Ludogorets Razgrad II

D1-1Hebar 1918Aug 29SEC

D1-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 25SEC

L0-2VihrenAug 18SEC

L0-2BeroeAug 10SEC

W2-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 3SEC

W1-0Rilski SportistJul 28SEC

W2-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 18FRI

W2-0Chernomorets Burgas SofiaJul 8FRI

L2-3Yantra 2019Jul 4FRI

D1-1NesebarJul 1FRI

W3-1Spartak PlevenMay 23SEC

L0-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 15SEC

W3-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaMay 11SEC

W2-1Hebar 1918May 4SEC

D0-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasApr 16SEC

Squad & Injuries

Chernomorets Burgas

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Ludogorets Razgrad II

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Chernomorets Burgas or Draw

Draw

No

Under 1.5

Under 1.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Chernomorets Burgas or Draw

Under 1.5

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Chernomorets Burgas

Ludogorets Razgrad II

Squad & Injuries

Chernomorets Burgas

Ludogorets Razgrad II