Botafogo SP1Ceara0

HT 0–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 20:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 33 pairs two relegation-threatened Série B sides: Botafogo-SP are five points above the drop but have lost four of their last five home league games, while Ceará arrive unbeaten in five.

A draw or a Ceará win is the likeliest result, and three quoted prices hold up — Ceará to avoid defeat at 1.78, Ceará to win at 3.5 and both teams to score at 1.95.

Context

Ceará's travelling party to Ribeirão Preto is without suspended midfielder Vina and the still-recovering Bryan Borges and Sávio, while Melk and Saulo Mineiro are back after sitting out the 1-0 win over Criciúma. The changes touch midfield and the wide defensive positions, giving Daniel Paulista a reshaped starting option and fresh attacking cover for a road game his side can approach calmly. The list comes from a named local journalist rather than an official club release, so the exact XI remains provisional and Saulo Mineiro's sharpness after a thigh problem is unverified.
- Ceará's squad for the Botafogo-SP match departed with Vina suspended and Bryan Borges and Sávio still in recovery, while Melk and Saulo Mineiro rejoined the group.
- Melk, Bryan Borges and Saulo Mineiro had all been absent for the 1-0 win over Criciúma on 8 October.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Ceará's 1-0 win over Criciúma on 8 October extended an unbeaten run to five games and lifted them to 14th on 42 points, nine clear of the relegation places. Club coverage states that victory at Botafogo-SP could mathematically secure their Série B place, which shapes how a road trip they can afford to draw is approached. The run has been built on narrow margins, with the Criciúma winner arriving from a substitute in the 88th minute, so the cushion is real even if the performances have not been dominant.
- Ceará beat Criciúma 1-0 on 8 October to extend their unbeaten Série B run to five games, with three wins and two draws.
- Ceará sit 14th on 42 points, nine clear of the relegation places, and a win at Botafogo-SP could mathematically confirm their Série B status.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Botafogo-SP are 16th on 38 points, five more than first-in-the-drop Avaí, who cut the gap by winning at Cuiabá, and the hosts have lost four of their last five home league games at Santa Cruz. With five rounds remaining after this one, points at home are central to staying clear of Série C, and Ceará's visit is one of the more winnable remaining fixtures on paper. Their 2-1 win at Operário on 7 October shows the side can still take results, though the home form a relegation run-in usually depends on has been poor.
- Botafogo-SP are 16th with 38 points after a 2-1 win at Operário on 7 October, five more than first-in-the-drop Avaí.
- Avaí cut the gap by winning at Cuiabá, and Botafogo-SP have four defeats in their last five home league games.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Ceará have reached half-time with a narrow or losing scoreline far more often than a lead, with just three first-half goals across the 15-match window. That helps explain why level at the break is the most likely first-half outcome in this fixture. The sample is 15 matches and a couple of early goals could change the picture, so it is a lean rather than a rule.
- In the 15-match window from 17 July to 8 October 2026, Ceará scored three first-half goals (0.20 per game).
- Ceará conceded 0.73 first-half goals per game across the same 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a better home record give Botafogo the largest single share of the match result.
- Botafogo's home league record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 16 games.
- Ceara have won only 3 of 16 away league games, with 6 draws and 7 defeats.
- Botafogo won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Ceara in June 2026.
- Ceara are without suspended Vina and injured Bryan Borges and Sávio.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBotafogo SPEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Very few first-half goals are scored in these teams' matches, so the break most often arrives level.
- Ceara have scored 3 first-half goals in 15 league games.
- Botafogo have scored 8 first-half goals in 15 league games.
- Botafogo were level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Ceara have trailed at half-time in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ceara's strong second-half scoring and Botafogo's late concessions make the visitors the most likely second-half winner.
- Ceara average 1.13 second-half goals overall and away.
- Botafogo concede 1.25 second-half goals per home game.
- Ceara won the second half in five of their last six matches.
- Botafogo lost the second half in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCearaEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a better home record give Botafogo the largest single share of the match result. Ceara's stronger recent form and Botafogo's weak home results make an away win about as likely as a home one.
- Botafogo's home league record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 16 games.
- Ceara have won only 3 of 16 away league games, with 6 draws and 7 defeats.
- Ceara are unbeaten in five Serie B games, winning three and drawing two.
- Botafogo have lost four of their last five home league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBotafogo SP or CearaEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Ceara barely score before half-time, leaving Botafogo the more likely side to lead at the break. Very few first-half goals are scored in these teams' matches, so the break most often arrives level.
- Botafogo average 0.75 first-half goals at home.
- Ceara average 0.13 first-half goals away and 0.20 overall.
- Ceara have scored 3 first-half goals in 15 league games.
- Botafogo have scored 8 first-half goals in 15 league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBotafogo SP or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Recent scoring for both teams points slightly below three goals in total.
- Botafogo's last six matches averaged 2.67 goals.
- Ceara's last six matches averaged 2.33 goals.
- Ceara have kept two clean sheets in their last six matches.
- Botafogo have kept one clean sheet in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides score regularly in these venues, so both finding the net is the more likely result.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Botafogo's 8 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Ceara's 8 away league games.
- Ceara scored in each of their last six Serie B matches.
- Botafogo scored in 7 of their 8 home league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo's low home clean-sheet rate makes a shutout unlikely.
- Botafogo kept 1 clean sheet in 8 home league games.
- Ceara scored in each of their last six Serie B matches.
- Ceara average 1.25 goals per away game.
- Botafogo have 3 clean sheets in 15 league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCeara to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo's regular home scoring and Ceara's thin away clean-sheet record point to Ceara conceding.
- Botafogo scored in 7 of their 8 home league games.
- Ceara kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away league games.
- Ceara have 3 clean sheets in 15 league matches.
- Botafogo average 1.50 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotafogo SP to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
An early goal is more likely than a blank first half given the recent scoring in these fixtures.
- Botafogo's games average 1.00 first-half goals (0.53 for, 0.47 against).
- Ceara's games average 0.93 first-half goals (0.20 for, 0.73 against).
- Botafogo's last six matches produced 11 first-half goals.
- Ceara's last six matches produced 6 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ceara's second-half scoring and Botafogo's late concessions make two or more second-half goals more likely than not.
- Ceara average 1.13 second-half goals overall.
- Botafogo concede 1.25 second-half goals per home game.
- Ceara won the second half in five of their last six matches.
- Botafogo's games average 1.40 second-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent corner counts for both teams sit below the line, making the lower total the more likely result.
- Botafogo's last six matches averaged 10.5 corners.
- Ceara's last six matches averaged 10.8 corners.
- Ceara's away games average 5.0 corners for and 6.13 against.
- Botafogo's home games average 6.75 corners for and 5.50 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ceara's high shot volume offsets Botafogo's lower home count, leaving the total close to the line.
- Botafogo home games average 25.4 total shots.
- Ceara away games average 30.4 total shots.
- Botafogo's last six matches averaged 24.8 shots.
- Ceara's last six matches averaged 30.3 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ceara's higher shot-on-target rate lifts the combined total just over the line.
- Botafogo home games average 7.0 shots on target in total.
- Ceara away games average 10.25 shots on target in total.
- Botafogo's last six matches averaged 6.8 shots on target.
- Ceara's last six matches averaged 8.3 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced around five cards, so more than four is the more likely total.
- Botafogo home games average 4.25 cards.
- Ceara away games average 4.88 cards.
- Botafogo's last six matches averaged 5.3 cards.
- Ceara's last six matches averaged 5.0 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance56%

Prediction history

Botafogo SP: 4/8 recent goals projections matched

4 of 8 comparable goals projections involving Botafogo SP matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Botafogo SP8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B