Thor Akureyri1IBV Vestmannaeyjar0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 17:08 · Europe/Bucharest

IBV have won three of the last five meetings with Thor, but arrive with one away win in 11; Thor's home record and a 1-0 win at IBV in August point to the hosts avoiding defeat.

Thor to win or draw at 1.6 and both teams not to score at 2.4 carry a small edge. IBV at 2.25 and over 2.5 goals at 1.5 offer nothing.

Context

IBV have won three of the five meetings listed since 2021, which is the strongest part of their case despite sitting bottom of the table. Thor's 1-0 win at IBV on 29 August is the counterweight, and it is why the home side is the better-supported pick to avoid defeat here.
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0-1 Thor Akureyri, Úrvalsdeild, 29 August 2026 — the most recent meeting in the supplied head-to-head list.
- The sides' other 2026 meeting, at Thor on 14 June 2026, finished 1-4 to IBV Vestmannaeyjar.
- Five meetings since 2021 appear in that list: three IBV wins, one Thor win and a 1-1 draw in May 2024.
The away return is the weakest part of IBV's case and it supports Thor's chances of avoiding defeat. Their four draws in 11 away games show how often they take a point on the road, so a level result is not a remote outcome in this fixture.
- IBV's 2026 away league record: 11 played, one win, four draws, six defeats, 15 goals scored and 24 conceded (league table fetched 7 October 2026).
- IBV's recent league form reads D-L-D-L-L, most recently a 1-1 home draw with Valur Reykjavik on 20 September 2026.
Thor sit 10th with 21 points from 22 games, and their home matches are where most of their wins have arrived — the base of their case here. The 20 goals they have let in across 11 home games are also why a clean sheet for them looks unlikely, giving IBV a route to scoring.
- Thor's 2026 home league record: 11 played, four wins, one draw, six defeats, 13 scored and 20 conceded (league table fetched 7 October 2026).
- Thor's league record overall: 22 played, six wins, three draws, 13 defeats, 22 scored and 50 conceded, 10th place on 21 points.
Einar Halldorsson is a 2008-born central midfielder who has played the bulk of Thór Akureyri's 2026 league season, with 20 appearances and roughly 1,678 minutes across the campaign. That volume of first-team football at 17 makes him one of the youngest established players in the division and a home-grown thread running through this fixture. The figures come from a fan-facing highlight account rather than the club or the competition, so the exact totals are indicative rather than official.
- A social post dated 15 September profiles Einar Freyr Halldórsson as a 2008-born central midfielder playing for Thór Akureyri in the 2026 Besta deild.
- The same post credits him with 20 league appearances, two goals, four assists and roughly 1,678 minutes in 2026.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
Thor's home record and IBV's one-win-in-eleven away return, backed by a 1-0 win at IBV in August, make the home side the better-supported winner.
- Thor home league record 4W-1D-6L with 13 goals scored and 20 conceded in 11 games
- IBV away league record 1W-4D-6L with 15 scored and 24 conceded in 11 games
- Thor won the most recent meeting 1-0 away at IBV on 29 August; IBV's last six league games have produced no wins
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThor AkureyriEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team's first-half scoring rate is high, so reaching the break level is the single most likely outcome.
- Thor's first-half scoring rate at home is 0.57 per game
- IBV's first-half scoring rate away is 0.75 per game
- Three of the last twelve first halves involving these teams finished 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates for both sides are modest and close to each other.
- Thor score 0.86 and concede 1.0 second-half goals per home game
- IBV score 0.625 and concede 1.0 second-half goals per away game
- IBV's last six second halves include three without a goal
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's home record and IBV's one-win-in-eleven away return, backed by a 1-0 win at IBV in August, make the home side the better-supported winner. IBV have scored more and conceded fewer than Thor across the season and have won most recent meetings.
- Thor home league record 4W-1D-6L with 13 goals scored and 20 conceded in 11 games
- IBV away league record 1W-4D-6L with 15 scored and 24 conceded in 11 games
- IBV have scored 32 league goals and conceded 45; Thor have 22 scored and 50 conceded
- IBV have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including 4-1 at Thor in June
BetBugs · Double ChancewonThor Akureyri or IBV VestmannaeyjarEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team's first-half scoring rate is high, so reaching the break level is the single most likely outcome. Thor concede early at home and IBV do more of their scoring before the break.
- Thor's first-half scoring rate at home is 0.57 per game
- IBV's first-half scoring rate away is 0.75 per game
- Thor concede 1.0 first-half goals per home game
- IBV score 0.75 first-half goals per away game, above their second-half rate
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or IBV VestmannaeyjarEstimated chance72%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams concede heavily and their matches have produced around three goals per game.
- Thor's 22 league games have produced 72 goals (3.27 per game)
- IBV's 22 league games have produced 77 goals (3.5 per game)
- Thor home games average 3.0 goals; IBV away games average 3.55
- Thor's last six games produced 18 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences give up goals regularly and each attack scores often enough to make a shared scoreline likely.
- Thor have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches, IBV only 1
- Thor concede 1.82 goals per home league game; IBV concede 2.18 per away game
- Thor's last six games: both scored in 2 of 6; IBV's last six: 3 of 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Thor have rarely scored more than once in a match this season.
- Thor have scored one goal or fewer in five of their last six games
- Thor average 1.0 league goal per game across 22 matches
- Thor's home first-half scoring rate is 0.57 per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonThor Akureyri under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IBV's recent scoring has been thin, making a two-goal away total less likely.
- IBV have scored four goals in their last six league games
- IBV have scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six
- IBV average 1.27 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIBV Vestmannaeyjar under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor concede in most matches, so IBV finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Thor have conceded in 11 of 15 tracked matches
- IBV have scored in three of their last six games
- Thor's home games average 1.82 goals conceded
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIBV Vestmannaeyjar to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IBV almost never keep a clean sheet, especially away from home.
- IBV have kept 1 clean sheet in 15 tracked matches and none in 8 away matches
- IBV concede 2.18 goals per away league game
- Thor scored in four of their last six games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonThor Akureyri to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
First halves involving these teams have produced goals at a high rate, driven mainly by their defences.
- Thor home games average 1.57 first-half goals combined
- IBV away games average 1.63 first-half goals combined
- Three of the last twelve first halves involving these teams finished 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams scoring before the break is rare in their matches.
- Only one of twelve recent first halves involving these teams had both teams scoring
- Thor's home first halves: 0.57 goals scored, 1.0 conceded
- IBV's away first halves: 0.75 scored, 0.875 conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IBV's quiet second halves leave the under line slightly better supported.
- IBV's last six second halves include three 0-0 halves
- IBV score 0.625 second-half goals per away game
- IBV have scored four goals in their last six league games overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%