Ferencvaros1Debrecen1

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferencvaros are unbeaten in six but have drawn both league games at home, and Debrecen — 1-0 winners here in December 2025 — have scored in five of their last six.

Ferencvaros should still have the better of it, but 1.29 on a home win asks for more than that record justifies. Four quoted selections offer something: under 2.5 goals at 3.1, Debrecen to win or draw at 3.4, the draw at 5.75, and both teams to score 'no' at 2.2.

Context

Ferencváros lose a slice of their home support for Debrecen's visit, and this is the only fixture the closure covers. The measure targets conduct in the stands rather than anything on the pitch, so selection, tactics and the rest of the stadium are unaffected. The effect on the game is therefore marginal — a single closed block — but it puts supporter behaviour at the centre of the build-up, an unusual backdrop for a routine league fixture.
- The Hungarian federation fined Ferencváros and ordered sector B3 of the Groupama Aréna closed for one home men's senior league match.
- The closure applies to the NB I home fixture against Debrecen on 10 October.
- The sanction followed offensive and discriminatory chanting by Ferencváros fans at a match against Puskás Akadémia.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:24 · Europe/BucharestFerencváros sector closure for the Debrecen fixtureindex.hu · 10 Sep 2026
Ferencvaros lead the modern series, yet they have been beaten at home by this opponent within the past twelve months.
Debrecen's 1-0 win at the Groupama Arena came inside the last year, and the five-meeting series has been low-scoring: four of the five finished under 2.5 goals. Ferencvaros still hold the better of the recent record with three wins, so the away side has a concrete recent route to a result here rather than a general one.
- 14 December 2025: Ferencvarosi TC 0-1 Debreceni VSC in NB I
- Ferencvaros won three of the last five meetings (0-2, 0-3 and 0-1 away wins); Debrecen won the other two
- Four of the last five meetings produced fewer than three goals; the exception was Debrecen's 5-4 home win on 5 December 2024
The Groupama Arena has not yet produced a league win for the hosts in this campaign.
Two matches is a small sample, but both Ferencvaros home league fixtures this season ended level, and Debrecen's away record of six goals in three league games suggests they can score at the Groupama Arena. The wider league table also shows Ferencvaros on three draws from seven.
- 2026 NB I: Ferencvaros home record 2 played, 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 goals for, 2 against
- Ferencvaros' league record is 7 played, 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss for 12 points, ranked 5th
- Debrecen's league away record is 3 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded
Debrecen's penalty comes from the same disciplinary round that closed a Ferencváros sector. Because such closures attach to a club's own home matches, it does not alter the team, venue or preparation for this away fixture. The story is background rather than tactical: both participants here are under federation scrutiny for supporter conduct, which frames the off-field context of the game.
- The Hungarian federation sanctioned Debreceni VSC with a sector closure and a fine over racist and discriminatory chanting by supporters.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:24 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros have the stronger defence and scoring rate and have taken three of the last five meetings between the clubs.
- Ferencvaros are 5th in NB I with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss; Debrecen are 9th with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per competitive match; Debrecen 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded
- Ferencvaros have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including 3-0 and 2-0 league wins at Debrecen
- Ferencvaros' last six competitive matches: 4 wins and 2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.62
The read
Ferencvaros start matches strongly, scoring before the break far more often than they concede.
- Ferencvaros average 1.1 first-half goals and concede 0.4; Debrecen average 0.7 and concede 0.9
- Ferencvaros scored 9 first-half goals across their last six matches
- Ferencvaros led at half-time in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' second-half scoring rate is strong and Debrecen have been conceding after the break, especially away.
- Ferencvaros average 1.1 second-half goals and concede 0.4; Debrecen average 0.6 and concede 1.0
- Debrecen's away matches average 1.5 second-half goals conceded
- Ferencvaros scored after the break in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros have the stronger defence and scoring rate and have taken three of the last five meetings between the clubs. Both teams have drawn a large share of their league games, and Ferencvaros have not won either home league fixture so far.
- Ferencvaros are 5th in NB I with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss; Debrecen are 9th with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per competitive match; Debrecen 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded
- Ferencvaros have drawn 5 of 14 competitive matches and 3 of 7 league matches
- Debrecen have drawn 4 of 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFerencvaros or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros start matches strongly, scoring before the break far more often than they concede. First halves in this fixture tend to be closer than the full-time picture, with Debrecen often still level at the break.
- Ferencvaros average 1.1 first-half goals and concede 0.4; Debrecen average 0.7 and concede 0.9
- Ferencvaros scored 9 first-half goals across their last six matches
- Ferencvaros' first halves average 1.5 total goals, so level openings are common
- Debrecen were level at half-time in two of their last six matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFerencvaros or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both clubs regularly pass three goals, and Debrecen's defence concedes almost two per game.
- Ferencvaros' competitive matches average 3.0 total goals; Debrecen's average 3.2
- Four of Ferencvaros' last six and four of Debrecen's last six went over 2.5
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings produced under 2.5 goals against that trend
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen have been finding the net regularly, and Ferencvaros have only a moderate clean-sheet record at home.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Ferencvaros' 14 and 7 of Debrecen's 13 competitive matches
- Debrecen scored in five of their last six matches
- Debrecen failed to score in 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' scoring rate and Debrecen's away concession rate both point to at least two home goals.
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals per competitive match and 1.8 in home matches
- Debrecen concede 1.9 per match overall and 2.2 in away matches
- Ferencvaros scored 2 or more in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFerencvaros over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's season scoring rate is modest and Ferencvaros have been hard to score against in front of their own crowd.
- Ferencvaros concede 0.8 goals per game in home matches
- Debrecen failed to score in 3 of the last 5 meetings
- Debrecen average 1.3 goals per competitive match this season
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDebrecen under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen have been scoring in most matches and have already found a winner at Ferencvaros this season cycle.
- Debrecen scored in five of their last six matches
- Debrecen average 1.3 goals per match and 1.7 in away matches
- Debrecen won 0-1 at Ferencvaros in December 2025
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDebrecen to scoreEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both teams score before half-time often enough that a completely goalless opening 45 minutes is unlikely.
- Ferencvaros average 1.1 first-half goals; Debrecen 0.7 per match
- Ferencvaros scored 9 and Debrecen 8 first-half goals across their last six matches each
- Ferencvaros' first halves average 1.5 total goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Ferencvaros rarely concede early, and Debrecen are blanked before the break in roughly half their matches.
- Ferencvaros concede 0.4 goals per first half; Debrecen concede 0.9
- Debrecen failed to score before half-time in three of their last six matches
- Ferencvaros kept a first-half clean sheet in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal totals for these two have generally landed at or below the two-goal mark.
- Half of the last twelve combined matches produced under two second-half goals
- Ferencvaros' home second-half average is 1.6 goals total (1.0 for, 0.6 against)
- Both teams average around one second-half goal per match or less
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' matches produce fewer than ten corners on average, which pulls the combined expectation below the line.
- Ferencvaros' matches average 9.7 corners (5.1 for, 4.6 against)
- Debrecen's matches average 13.4 corners (7.9 for, 5.5 against)
- Corner data covers 9 Ferencvaros and 11 Debrecen matches, so the samples are partial
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages for both clubs sit at or below 4.5, and Debrecen's away fixtures have been the calmer split.
- Ferencvaros' matches average 3.8 cards and Debrecen's 4.6
- Debrecen's away matches produced 3.6 cards per game across 5 tracked fixtures
- Both teams' own yellow-card averages sit between 1.8 and 2.3 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance54%