Gyor0Ferencvaros3

HT 0–1Thu 3 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 11–16On targetOn target 3–7CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:19 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Double Chance Győr or Draw at ~1.95 (model 55% vs implied 51%).

Avoid Ferencváros to win, Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals—all are overpriced relative to the model. Ferencváros striker L. Joseph is a fitness doubt, adding uncertainty to the away side's attack.

Context

Gyor sit third in the NB I table with nine points from five matches, two points behind leaders Puskas Academy.
Their recent league results include a 3-0 home win over Zalaegerszegi TE on August 23 and a 1-1 away draw at Kisvarda FC on August 30. This unbeaten run suggests they are difficult to beat, especially at home where they have won both matches without conceding. However, the sample is small and includes three draws, so they may not dominate stronger opponents.
- Gyor are unbeaten in five NB I matches (W2 D3).
- They won 3-0 at home to Zalaegerszegi TE on 2026-08-23.
- They drew 1-1 away at Kisvarda FC on 2026-08-30.
Ferencváros attacker L. Joseph started the latest league match against Puskás Akadémia on 30 August.
He was replaced after 14 minutes with an ankle injury and his availability for this match has not been updated. Ferencváros may need to adjust their attacking selection, but the situation remains unresolved until the squad is confirmed.
- Ferencváros named L. Joseph in the starting XI against Puskás Akadémia on 30 August.
- The club reported that Joseph injured his ankle in an earlier tackle and was replaced after 14 minutes by Krisztián Lisztes.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:17 · Europe/BucharestFradi.hu match report: Puskás Akadémia 1-2 Ferencvároswww.fradi.hu · 30 Aug 2026
Ferencvaros are seventh in the NB I with seven points from four matches, having played fewer games than most rivals.
They beat Puskas Academy 2-1 away on August 30 and Trabzonspor 4-0 at home on August 27. This run suggests they are scoring goals and winning tight games, but their away league record is mixed with two wins and one loss, so they are not guaranteed to carry this form to Gyor.
- Ferencvaros have won their last three matches in all competitions.
- They won 2-1 away at Puskas Academy on 2026-08-30.
- They won 4-0 at home to Trabzonspor on 2026-08-27.
This fixture was moved to Thursday 3 September, with both clubs also playing at home on Sunday 6 September.
The three-day turnaround compresses recovery and preparation for both teams. It may influence rotation or workload management, but no specific selection changes are confirmed.
- Ferencváros said the MLSZ moved ETO FC–Ferencváros to 3 September because of its Real Madrid match.
- ETO confirm a home match against Kispest-Honvéd on 6 September, while Ferencváros confirm a home match against Újpest on the same date.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:17 · Europe/BucharestFradi.hu fixture announcementwww.fradi.hu · 24 Aug 2026ETO FC ticket informationwww.eto.hu · 26 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have decent attacking output and H2H meetings often produce goals, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and H2H history shows frequent goals from both sides, but the market is already confident.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros have stronger overall quality and a positive H2H record, but Gyor's perfect home start and recent league win over Ferencvaros create uncertainty, so the away win is only moderately favoured.
- Ferencvaros away record this season: 2W-0D-1L, 5 goals scored, 5 conceded in 3 away matches.
- Gyor home record this season: 2W-0D-0L, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded in 2 home matches.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros won 3, drew 1, lost 1; most recent league meeting Gyor won 1-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFerencvarosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gyor's strong home form and unbeaten league run make them likely to avoid defeat, though Ferencvaros' quality keeps the probability moderate.
- Gyor are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (2W, 3D).
- Gyor home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Ferencvaros away record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGyor or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be competitive with both teams capable of scoring, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Gyor led at half-time in 53% of recent matches, trailed in 13%.
- Ferencvaros led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, trailed in 13%.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (Gyor 1.0, Ferencvaros 0.8).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Ferencvaros win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength, but the probability is low.
- Ferencvaros have won 2 of their last 3 away league matches.
- Gyor have drawn 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- H2H: Ferencvaros won 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/FerencvarosEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent attacking output and H2H meetings often produce goals, supporting over 2.5 total goals.
- Gyor average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in recent form.
- Ferencvaros average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match in recent form.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and H2H history shows frequent goals from both sides.
- Gyor have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Ferencvaros have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Gyor average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- Ferencvaros average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in recent form.
- Gyor led at half-time in 53% of recent matches; Ferencvaros led in 47%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is near the line, but variance is high, so confidence is low.
- Gyor average 1.0 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Ferencvaros average 0.8 second-half goals.
- Combined average second-half goals: 1.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is near the line, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Gyor average 3.5 corners per match and concede 7.0 opponent corners per match in recent form.
- Ferencvaros average 4.4 corners per match and concede 4.0 opponent corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 7.9, close to the line.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is near the line, making over 3.5 cards a coin flip.
- Gyor average 2.4 yellow cards per match; Ferencvaros average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.0, close to the line.
- Ferencvaros average 15.4 fouls per match, Gyor 10.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% exceeds our 45% estimate; the away win is overpriced given Gyor's strong home form and recent H2H win.

Prediction history

Ferencvaros has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Ferencvaros has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win predictions, a 50% success rate. The average estimated probability for these matches was 53.3%, with an expected 2.1 fulfilled predictions, so actual results are close to expectation. Notably, both missed predictions ended in a draw or loss, while both fulfilled predictions came with probabilities of 45% and 68%.

Recent evidence for Ferencvaros4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa League

Ferencvaros2-2