Suwon1Hwaseong0

HT 0–0Fri 9 Oct 2026, 05:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 03:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon have not lost at home in the league this season, but Hwaseong have lost once in seven away games and the only meeting between them finished 1-1.

A tight, low-scoring afternoon with Suwon avoiding defeat is the likeliest shape. Three quotes hold up: both teams not to score at 2.25, under 2.5 goals at 2.15 and the draw at 3.75; the 1.95 for a Suwon win does not.

Context

Pllana's four goals in Hwaseong's 5-1 home defeat of Daegu on 1 August are the standout individual return of their season, and the scoreline is the clearest illustration of how Hwaseong punish a team that leaves them space. The haul came in a single afternoon rather than at a repeatable rate, so it supports respecting Hwaseong's ceiling without assuming a repeat here. The counterweight sits at the other end: Suwon have conceded once in each of their last two home league games and kept a clean sheet in the one before that.
- Hwaseong beat Daegu 5-1 at home on 1 August 2026.
- L. Pllana scored in the 15th, 40th, 60th and 65th minutes.
- Jegal Jae-min scored Hwaseong's fifth goal in first-half stoppage time.
- L. Pllana started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/BucharestMatch report on Hwaseong's win over Daeguwww.chosun.com · 7 Aug 2026
Hwaseong concede 0.86 goals per away match in that window and have kept three clean sheets on the road, which is why Suwon's 2.14 goals per tracked home game is not the whole story. The three draws in the same seven-match sample also argue against reading this as an away win. A narrow result either way is better supported than a comfortable one.
- Hwaseong's tracked away record: 7 matches, 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat, 23 May to 20 September 2026.
- They conceded 6 goals across those 7 away matches (0.86 per game) and kept 3 clean sheets.
- They scored in 5 of the 7 and average 1.57 goals per away match in the same window.
Second place is built on that unbeaten home run, but the five draws inside it show how often Suwon have been held rather than dominant, and Hwaseong's away profile is the type that can add to that column. The unbeaten tag applies to home matches only: Suwon's away league record this season includes three defeats from fourteen.
- Suwon's 2026 K League 2 home record: 11 played, 6 wins, 5 draws, 0 defeats, 23 scored, 10 conceded (standings as of 6 October 2026).
- Overall: 2nd place, 48 points from 25 games, 50 scored and 29 conceded.
The 2-2 draw with Chungbuk Cheongju included a penalty-area incident in which no spot-kick was given, and the call was an error. The referee and the video assistant were both removed from three matches afterwards. What carries into this fixture is the dropped points rather than the officiating: Suwon have drawn three of their last six league games. That pattern of tight finishes is worth holding against the more flattering results around it.
- Suwon drew 2-2 with Chungbuk Cheongju after recovering from a two-goal deficit.
- A penalty-area incident in the game produced no spot-kick and was an error.
- The referee and the video assistant were each taken off three match assignments.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/BucharestReport on Suwon's draw with Chungbuk Cheongjuwww.chosun.com · 7 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon are unbeaten at home, sit higher in the table and score heavily at home, while Hwaseong's away defence is the main obstacle.
- Suwon home league record 2026: 6 wins, 5 draws, 0 defeats in 11 games
- Suwon tracked home matches: 15 goals scored, 6 conceded in 7 (2.14 vs 0.86 per game)
- Hwaseong away form: 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat in 7 tracked away matches
- The season's only meeting finished 1-1 at Hwaseong
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily before the break recently, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Suwon's recent first halves: 1,0,0,1,1,1 goals scored
- Hwaseong's recent first halves: 1,0,0,0,0,0 goals scored
- Suwon concede 0.29 first-half goals per tracked home match
- Hwaseong average 0.57 first-half goals away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon score consistently after the break at home and carry the better overall form into the closing period.
- Suwon average 1.29 second-half goals in tracked home matches
- Suwon concede 0.57 second-half goals at home
- Hwaseong average 1.0 second-half goals and concede 0.29 in tracked away matches
- Suwon's recent second halves: 2,1,1,1,1,1 goals scored
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Suwon are unbeaten at home, sit higher in the table and score heavily at home, while Hwaseong's away defence is the main obstacle. Both sides draw often and their one meeting was level, with Hwaseong's away defence capable of holding Suwon to a low-scoring game.
- Suwon home league record 2026: 6 wins, 5 draws, 0 defeats in 11 games
- Suwon tracked home matches: 15 goals scored, 6 conceded in 7 (2.14 vs 0.86 per game)
- Suwon have drawn 6 of 15 tracked matches and 5 of 11 league home games
- Hwaseong have drawn 3 of 7 tracked away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuwon or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's home first halves are the stronger of the two, with more goals scored and very few conceded before the break. Neither side scores heavily before the break recently, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Suwon average 0.86 first-half goals in tracked home matches
- Suwon concede 0.29 first-half goals in tracked home matches
- Suwon's recent first halves: 1,0,0,1,1,1 goals scored
- Hwaseong's recent first halves: 1,0,0,0,0,0 goals scored
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSuwon or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both attacks score at close to two goals a game and both defences concede regularly, putting the total near the middle of the over/under line.
- Suwon home tracked matches average 2.14 scored and 0.86 conceded (3.0 total)
- Hwaseong away tracked matches average 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded (2.43 total)
- Both teams have scored in 10 of Suwon's 15 and 9 of Hwaseong's 15 tracked matches
- Hwaseong won a home game 5-1 this season
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon almost always score and Hwaseong find the net in most away games, so both sides getting a goal is slightly more likely than not.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Suwon's 15 tracked matches
- Both teams scored in 9 of Hwaseong's 15 tracked matches
- Suwon scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
- Hwaseong scored in 5 of 7 tracked away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong's away defence is the strongest part of their game, making a one-goal-or-fewer home output the slightly likelier outcome.
- Hwaseong conceded 6 goals in 7 tracked away matches
- Hwaseong kept 3 clean sheets away
- Suwon drew 5 of 11 league home games
- Suwon's home goals came in 6 of 7 matches, often in low totals
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSuwon under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's home defence gives up fewer than one goal per game, making a low away output the more likely result.
- Suwon conceded 6 goals in 7 tracked home matches
- Hwaseong averaged 1.57 away goals with 5 scoring matches out of 7
- Hwaseong's away goals came in a small set of multi-goal games
- Suwon's home league record shows 10 goals conceded in 11 games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHwaseong under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong score in most away games and Suwon concede in more than half of their home matches, so a shutout is the less likely side.
- Hwaseong scored in 5 of 7 tracked away matches
- Suwon conceded in 4 of 7 tracked home matches
- Hwaseong have a forward with four goals in a single game this season
- Suwon kept 3 clean sheets at home, meaning they conceded in 4
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHwaseong to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's near-perfect scoring record at home makes it likely Hwaseong concede at least once.
- Suwon scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
- Suwon scored in 6 of 7 tracked home matches
- Suwon average 2.14 goals per tracked home match
- Hwaseong conceded in 4 of 7 tracked away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSuwon to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The two teams combine for roughly one first-half goal per match, so at least one goal before the break is the likely outcome.
- Suwon average 0.86 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29
- Hwaseong average 0.57 first-half goals away and concede 0.57
- Combined expected first-half total is about 1.1 goals
- Only one of Hwaseong's last six matches was goalless at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes it distinctly unlikely that each team scores before the break.
- Suwon concede only 0.29 first-half goals per tracked home match
- Hwaseong have scored one first-half goal in their last six matches
- Most recent first halves for both teams ended 0-0 or 1-0
- Hwaseong average 0.57 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede little after the break, keeping a low second-half total marginally more likely.
- Hwaseong conceded 0.29 second-half goals per tracked away match
- Suwon conceded 0.57 second-half goals per tracked home match
- Suwon's recent second halves: 2,1,1,1,1,1 goals scored
- Second-half expected total is roughly 1.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%