Umea FC1FBK Karlstad3

HT 1–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 18:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Umeå FC have won four of their last five, but home form is the weak part of their season, while FBK Karlstad sit sixth with the better away record and have drawn their last two league games 0-0.

FBK edge the win split, though goals could go either way. Two quoted prices offer something: both teams to score – No at 2.4 and under 2.5 goals at 2.25; the 1.48 on both teams to score and 1.57 on over 2.5 do not.

Context

The free-entry day was set up on 17 September and the tickets went out on 22 September, so this is a settled arrangement rather than a proposal. It is the one fixture-specific condition attached to this game that can be checked before kickoff, and a city invited in at no cost against a visitor from the far side of the country makes for an unusual Ettan Norra afternoon. How much of the 100,000 kr target has been raised, and therefore how full the ground will be, is not stated anywhere.
- Umeå FC set up a 100,000 kr collection with companies and private individuals to cover entry for the 27 September meeting with FBK Karlstad.
- Free tickets for the match became available five days before kickoff.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Yeboah was used in central defence for the 3-0 win at Stocksund on 20 September, four days after Umeå FC won the Norrland derby at Piteå. Those two away wins without conceding are the most recent evidence of how the side defends, and his capacity to cover centre-back gives the coach another way to set up the back line here. It is a single appearance in the position, and nothing indicates whether the move answered a shortage of defenders or formed part of the plan for the run-in.
- Emmanuel Yeboah filled in at centre-back in Umeå FC's 3-0 away win over IFK Stocksund on 20 September 2026.
- He scored the opening goal of that match.
- E. Yeboah started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
FBK Karlstad arrive with 5W-3D-3L and 20 scored against 14 conceded in 11 away league games, so this is not a soft landing for the hosts. The 11-game home split is a small sample within the league season to date and does not explain why the results differ. It does mean the home setting has been Umeå's weaker one, the reverse of the usual pattern.
- Umeå FC 2026 Ettan Norra home record: 3W-3D-5L, 13 goals scored and 20 conceded in 11 games (league table fetched 25 September 2026).
- Umeå FC away record in the same season: 5W-2D-5L, 18 scored and 17 conceded in 12 games.
- FBK Karlstad away record: 5W-3D-3L, 20 scored and 14 conceded in 11 games.
- Umeå FC sit 10th on 29 points and FBK Karlstad 6th on 39 after 23 games.
Dukhan moved from ÖSK to FBK Karlstad at the end of August, and his name appeared among Syria's new call-ups in a squad list dated 18 September, with a Sweden-based call-up list a week later still carrying him. If he is with the national team at the weekend, the club's newest arrival is not available for a fixture on the edge of that period. Neither club has put out team news, and nothing so far shows him holding a regular place in the FBK Karlstad line-up, so the practical effect on selection is unclear.
- Wessam Dukhan left ÖSK Fotboll by mutual agreement on 30 August 2026 and signed for FBK Karlstad in Ettan Norra.
- He featured among the new call-ups in a Syria squad list dated 18 September 2026.
- A list of Sweden-based international call-ups dated 24 September 2026 also included him.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

First-half output from both sides is limited, so at least one team going in scoreless is the clear favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
FBK's away results and league position are stronger than Umeå's home output, which puts them marginally ahead in the win split.
- FBK Karlstad sit 6th on 39 points; Umeå FC are 10th on 29 after 23 games
- FBK away: 5W-3D-3L with 20 goals scored and 14 conceded in 11 games
- Umeå home: 3W-3D-5L with 13 scored and 20 conceded in 11 games
- FBK have taken 18 of 33 away points; Umeå 12 of 33 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFBK KarlstadEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring is low, which makes the half finishing level the most likely single outcome.
- FBK average 0.43 second-half goals scored and 0.43 conceded per away game
- Umeå's home second halves average 0.43 scored and 1.14 conceded
- Overall second-half averages: Umeå 0.71 for and 1.00 against; FBK 0.67 and 1.00
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Umeå arrive in good form and at home, but their home results this season have been markedly weaker than their overall form. FBK's away results and league position are stronger than Umeå's home output, which puts them marginally ahead in the win split.
- Umeå FC home record in Ettan Norra 2026: 3W-3D-5L, 13 scored and 20 conceded in 11 games
- FBK Karlstad away record: 5W-3D-3L, 20 scored and 14 conceded in 11 games
- FBK Karlstad sit 6th on 39 points; Umeå FC are 10th on 29 after 23 games
- FBK away: 5W-3D-3L with 20 goals scored and 14 conceded in 11 games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUmea FC or FBK KarlstadEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring from both teams is limited, making a level interval the single most likely half-time state. FBK's first-half scoring, especially away, is the strongest of the two teams and gives them the edge at the interval.
- Umeå first-half averages: 0.57 scored and 0.57 conceded per match
- FBK first-half averages: 0.80 scored and 0.73 conceded per match
- FBK average 0.80 first-half goals overall and 1.14 in away games
- Umeå concede 0.86 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FBK KarlstadEstimated chance70%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede regularly and the venue splits point to a combined total around three goals.
- Umeå 14-match window: 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game
- FBK 15-match window: 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded per game
- Umeå home games average 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded; FBK away games 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score at roughly a goal per game or better and neither has been consistently shut out.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Umeå's 14 matches and 7 of FBK's 15
- Umeå home games average 1.18 goals scored; FBK away games 1.82
- Umeå failed to score in 4 of 14 matches; FBK in 6 of 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Umeå's home goal output is modest and FBK's away defence has been reasonably tight.
- Umeå have scored 13 goals in 11 home league games, 1.18 per match
- Umeå failed to score in 4 of 14 matches in this window
- FBK have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonUmea FC under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite a healthy away average, FBK's recent scoring has dried up and single-goal outputs are common.
- FBK have been shut out in 6 of their 15 matches this season
- FBK's last two league games both finished 0-0
- FBK scored 0 or 1 goal in 3 of their last 6 league matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFBK Karlstad under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both the visitor's away scoring and the host's home conceding rate point to FBK finding the net.
- FBK average 1.82 goals scored per away league game
- Umeå concede 1.82 goals per home league game
- Umeå have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFBK Karlstad to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umeå score in the large majority of their matches and FBK concede regularly on the road.
- Umeå have scored in 10 of 14 matches in this window
- FBK concede 1.43 goals per away game in this window and 1.27 in the league
- Umeå scored three at Stocksund on 20 September
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUmea FC to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Umeå win without conceding would require the away side to be shut out, which their away record makes unlikely.
- FBK average 1.82 goals scored per away league game
- Umeå have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Umeå's home matches average 1.82 goals conceded
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umeå score regularly and an away win with a clean sheet is a narrow combination.
- Umeå have scored in 10 of 14 matches in this window
- Umeå have scored in 5 of 7 home matches
- FBK have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring is enough that a goalless opening period is the minority outcome.
- Umeå first-half averages: 0.57 scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- FBK first-half averages: 0.80 scored and 0.73 conceded per game
- Four of Umeå's last six and four of FBK's last six matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
First-half output from both sides is limited, so at least one team going in scoreless is the clear favourite.
- Both teams average under one first-half goal per match
- Umeå have scored 0.57 first-half goals per game; FBK 0.80
- FBK's last two league matches were 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance74%