Quilmes AC2CA Guemes0

HT 1–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 05:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom club Güemes visit Quilmes in a Zona B relegation fixture, and Quilmes' five home wins in eight make them the likelier winner, but 1.43 is not worth backing.

Prices that offer something: level at half-time 2.3, Güemes level or ahead at half-time 1.75, both teams not to score 1.57, no goal in the first half at 2.7, Güemes level or ahead after 90 minutes at 2.7, under 2.5 goals at 1.75 and the draw at 4.2.

Context

Both clubs are still fighting relegation in Zona B and their positions make this a direct six-pointer. Güemes are last on 23 points, inside the two relegation places, while Quilmes sit five points clear on 35 after a 3-0 defeat at Chacarita Juniors. A Güemes win would close most of that gap and pull Quilmes back towards the danger line with the season running out. The points figures are a round-30 snapshot, and results elsewhere in the round can change the margins before this game kicks off.
- After round 30, Güemes were 18th of Zona B on 23 points, inside the relegation places alongside Chacarita Juniors on 30.
- Quilmes were 13th on 35 points, above Patronato (31) and Nueva Chicago (33), with positions 17 and 18 shown as the two relegation places.
- Round 31 of Zona B schedules Quilmes v Güemes for Saturday at 16:00 local time.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Quilmes host bottom club Güemes at the ground where nearly all of their 2026 points have been earned.
Quilmes' season has been built at home, and this is a home fixture against the bottom club, which is why they start as the likelier winner. The record also carries a caution: three defeats in 15 home games, and only 17 goals scored across them, so the advantage rests on defence rather than a prolific attack.
- As of the round-30 table (fetched 22 September 2026), Quilmes' 2026 Primera Nacional home record is 15 games, W8 D4 L3, 17 goals for and 6 against, 28 points.
- In the same 30 rounds, Quilmes' away record is 15 games, W1 D4 L10, 11 goals for and 21 against, 7 points.
Quilmes' home matches have started quietly, with nothing conceded before the break in eight games.
Quilmes' home games have been tight from the opening whistle: three first-half goals scored and none conceded across the sample. Güemes have scored four first-half goals in their eight away games, so an early away goal would run against this pattern rather than with it, and the visitors have rarely turned that into a half-time lead.
- Quilmes' eight home league matches, 13 June to 12 September 2026: 3 first-half goals scored and 0 conceded, with 4 clean sheets overall.
- Across the same eight home matches, Quilmes have conceded four goals in total, an average of 0.5 per home game.
Güemes' away days have been unproductive and have tended to get worse after half-time.
All four of Güemes' away goals in this sample came before the break, with none after it, while nine went in at the other end in the second half. They have drawn three of these eight away games, so a point is not out of reach, but the record says holding out through the closing stages is where the trouble has come.
- Güemes' eight away league matches, 14 June to 12 September 2026: 4 goals scored in total, 0.5 per game, with 0 second-half goals scored.
- Güemes conceded 9 second-half goals in those eight away matches, 1.125 per game.

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes are much stronger at home and face the bottom side, whose away record is poor.
- Quilmes have 5 wins from 8 home matches (W5 D1 L2) with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded
- Güemes have 0 wins from 8 away matches (D3 L5) with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded
- Quilmes sit 13th on 35 points; Güemes are 18th on 23 points
- Güemes are winless in their last 6 (3 draws, 3 losses)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonQuilmes ACEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
First halves in Quilmes' home games have been very low-scoring, making a draw at the break likely.
- Quilmes scored 3 first-half goals in 8 home matches
- Quilmes conceded 0 first-half goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes scored 4 first-half goals in 8 away matches
- Güemes conceded 6 first-half goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes score plenty after the break at home, while Güemes have not scored a second-half goal away all season.
- Quilmes scored 7 second-half goals in 8 home matches (0.875 per game)
- Quilmes conceded 4 second-half goals in 8 home matches (0.5 per game)
- Güemes scored 0 second-half goals in 8 away matches
- Güemes conceded 9 second-half goals in 8 away matches (1.125 per game)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonQuilmes ACEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes are much stronger at home and face the bottom side, whose away record is poor. Güemes have shown they can hold low-scoring games, and Quilmes often struggle to break teams down.
- Quilmes have 5 wins from 8 home matches (W5 D1 L2) with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded
- Güemes have 0 wins from 8 away matches (D3 L5) with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded
- Quilmes have drawn 1 of 8 home matches; Güemes have drawn 3 of 8 away matches
- Güemes' last six matches include three draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes rarely concede early at home, but they also rarely score, so a first-half lead is possible but not frequent. First halves in Quilmes' home games have been very low-scoring, making a draw at the break likely.
- Quilmes conceded 0 first-half goals in 8 home matches
- Quilmes scored 3 first-half goals in 8 home matches (0.375 per game)
- Quilmes scored 3 first-half goals in 8 home matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both sides rarely score more than once, and Quilmes' home games are especially tight.
- Quilmes home matches average 1.25 goals for and 0.5 against
- Güemes away matches average 0.5 goals for and 1.875 against
- Four of Quilmes' last six matches had under 2.5 goals
- Five of Güemes' last six matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
At least one side is likely to be shut out given the low scoring profiles.
- Quilmes kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Güemes kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches
- Quilmes scored 6 goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes conceded 7 goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes rarely score more than once at home, and their recent matches have been low-scoring.
- Quilmes scored 6 goals in 8 home matches
- Quilmes scored 0 or 1 goal in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Güemes kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches
- Quilmes' home matches average 1.25 goals for
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostQuilmes AC under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Güemes rarely score away and Quilmes concede very few at home.
- Güemes scored 4 goals in 8 away matches
- Güemes scored 0 or 1 goal in all of their last 6 matches
- Quilmes kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Quilmes conceded only 4 goals in 8 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCA Guemes under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' home defense is strong and Güemes often fail to score on the road.
- Quilmes kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Güemes failed to score in 4 of 8 away matches
- Quilmes conceded only 4 goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes scored 4 goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Guemes not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes usually score at home and Güemes concede regularly on the road.
- Güemes kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches
- Quilmes scored in 6 of 8 home matches
- Quilmes scored 6 goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes conceded 7 goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQuilmes AC to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Not every Quilmes home win is accompanied by a clean sheet, and Güemes can score away.
- Quilmes have 5 home wins and 4 home clean sheets
- Güemes scored in 4 of 8 away matches
- Quilmes conceded in 4 of 8 home matches
- Quilmes' home wins include matches where they conceded
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are not frequent, but Güemes' away games often see an early goal.
- Quilmes home first halves average 0.375 goals for and 0.0 against
- Güemes away first halves average 0.5 goals for and 0.75 against
- Quilmes scored in the first half in 2 of 8 home matches
- Güemes conceded first-half goals in several away matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
The first half is likely to feature at most one team scoring, given Quilmes' home record.
- Quilmes conceded 0 first-half goals in 8 home matches
- Quilmes scored 3 first-half goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes scored 4 first-half goals in 8 away matches
- Güemes conceded 6 first-half goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to produce one goal or none, given the low expected total.
- Quilmes home second halves average 0.875 goals for and 0.5 against
- Güemes away second halves average 0.0 goals for and 1.125 against
- Quilmes scored 7 second-half goals in 8 home matches
- Güemes scored 0 second-half goals in 8 away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance78%