Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy2CA Guemes1

HT 0–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–190%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Gimnasia Jujuy's perfect home record and Guemes' dreadful away form make a home win highly likely, but the best betting value is on Over 1.5 Home Goals (75% estimated probability vs.

53.2% implied) and Over 0.5 First Half Goals (80% vs. 71.4%). Avoid low-value markets like Both Teams to Score and Total Away Goals Under 1.5.

Context

Home record: 8W-2D-0L, 22 goals scored, 6 conceded in 10 matches.
- Last 5 home matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, with 13 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Only 4 clean sheets at home, but they have outscored opponents in every home game.
Away record: 1W-2D-6L, 8 goals scored, 19 conceded.
- Last 5 away matches: 4 losses, 1 draw, with 13 goals conceded.
- They have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of 9 away games this season.
Reverse fixture: 3-1 away win for Gimnasia on 21 Jun 2026.
- Gimnasia led 2-1 at half-time and added a third goal.
- Gimnasia are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw).
Gimnasia are 1st in the league, with goal difference as the tiebreaker.
- Guemes are 18th and have little to play for beyond pride.
- Gimnasia have scored 2+ goals in 8 of 10 home games, showing they push for goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's perfect home record and strong recent form, combined with Guemes' poor away performances and relegation struggles, make a home win highly likely.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home record: 8W-2D-0L, 22 goals scored, 6 conceded in 10 matches this season.
- CA Guemes away record: 1W-2D-6L, 8 goals scored, 19 conceded in 9 matches this season.
- Gimnasia Jujuy last 5 matches: 3W-2D-0L, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- CA Guemes last 5 matches: 1W-0D-4L, 3 goals scored, 11 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's unbeaten home season and Guemes' dreadful away form make a home win or draw extremely probable.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home record: 8W-2D-0L, unbeaten at home this season.
- CA Guemes away record: 1W-2D-6L, only 1 away win all season.
- H2H last 3 meetings: Gimnasia Jujuy unbeaten (2W-1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's tendency to start strong at home, combined with Guemes' habit of falling behind early away, points to a home lead at halftime.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home first-half record: led at halftime in 6 of 10 matches.
- CA Guemes away first-half record: trailed at halftime in 6 of 9 matches.
- Gimnasia Jujuy last 5 matches: led at halftime in 3, drew 2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's pattern of leading at halftime and winning at home, against a weak away side, supports a home HT/FT double.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home HT/FT: led at HT and won in 6 of 10 matches.
- CA Guemes away HT/FT: trailed at HT and lost in 5 of 9 matches.
- Gimnasia Jujuy last 5 home matches: led at HT and won in 3.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy / Gimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance50%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to be high-scoring, especially when Gimnasia is at home and Guemes is away, suggesting over 2.5 goals is likely.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home matches average 2.8 total goals (22 scored, 6 conceded in 10 games).
- CA Guemes away matches average 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 19 conceded in 9 games).
- Last H2H meeting: 3-1 (4 goals).
- Gimnasia Jujuy last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While Gimnasia is strong at home, they often concede, and Guemes has managed to score in most away games, making both teams scoring a reasonable outcome.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 10 games.
- CA Guemes away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 9 games.
- Last H2H: both teams scored in 2 of last 3 meetings.
- Gimnasia Jujuy conceded in 4 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's defense is not watertight at home, and Guemes has a decent away scoring record, so a home clean sheet is unlikely.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home clean sheets: only 4 in 10 matches.
- CA Guemes away scoring: scored in 7 of 9 away matches.
- Gimnasia Jujuy conceded in 4 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Guemes to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimnasia's potent home attack against Guemes' leaky away defense strongly supports the home team scoring at least 2 goals.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home goals: 22 in 10 matches, average 2.2 per game.
- Gimnasia Jujuy scored 2+ goals in 8 of 10 home matches.
- CA Guemes away conceded: 19 in 9 matches, average 2.1 per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guemes struggles to score on the road, and Gimnasia's home defense is solid, making it likely that Guemes scores at most one goal.
- CA Guemes away goals: 8 in 9 matches, average 0.89 per game.
- CA Guemes scored 0 or 1 goal in 8 of 9 away matches.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home conceded: 6 in 10 matches, average 0.6 per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCA Guemes under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half trends strongly indicate at least one goal before the break.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home first-half goals: scored in 8 of 10 matches.
- CA Guemes away first-half goals conceded: conceded in 7 of 9 matches.
- Last H2H: first-half goals in 2 of last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open, with Gimnasia pushing for goals and Guemes' defense tiring, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Gimnasia Jujuy home second-half goals: 12 in 10 matches, average 1.2.
- CA Guemes away second-half goals conceded: 12 in 9 matches, average 1.33.
- Last H2H: 3 second-half goals in the most recent meeting.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages and match context: Gimnasia's attacking style at home should generate corners, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Typical Primera Nacional matches average around 9-10 corners.
- Home dominance and away pressure often lead to higher corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-3Club Atlético GüemesvGimnasia JujuyJun 21, 2026PRI

L1-0Gimnasia JujuyvClub Atlético GüemesSep 1, 2024PRI

D1-1Club Atlético GüemesvGimnasia JujuyApr 14, 2024PRI

W0-2Gimnasia JujuyvClub Atlético GüemesApr 30, 2022PRI

D1-1Gimnasia JujuyvClub Atlético GüemesAug 7, 2021PRI

2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)	20	11	5	4	32-22	38	DDWWW
18	CA Guemes Relegation	20	5	4	11	18-34	19	LLLLW

19pt gap between teamsCA Guemes in relegation zone

Recent Form

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

D1-1Chacarita JuniorsJul 12PRI

D1-1MidlandJul 5PRI

W3-1Club Atlético GüemesJun 21PRI

W4-0Nueva ChicagoJun 17PRI

W2-1San Martin S.J.Jun 13PRI

L0-3AtlantaJun 6PRI

D1-1Gimnasia Y TiroMay 24PRI

W1-0TemperleyMay 17PRI

L0-2San Martin TucumanMay 13PRI

D1-1Deportivo MaipuMay 3PRI

D0-0Atletico DE RafaelaApr 25PRI

W6-1AlmagroApr 19PRI

W2-1AgropecuarioApr 12PRI

W2-0PatronatoApr 5PRI

W2-1Chaco For EverMar 28PRI

CA Guemes

L0-2San Martin S.J.Jul 12PRI

L0-2Nueva ChicagoJul 4PRI

L1-3Gimnasia JujuyJun 21PRI

L1-4TemperleyJun 14PRI

W1-0Deportivo MaipuJun 7PRI

L0-2AlmagroMay 31PRI

W1-0PatronatoMay 24PRI

L1-4ColegialesMay 16PRI

W2-1QuilmesMay 10PRI

L1-2MidlandMay 3PRI

L0-2AtlantaApr 26PRI

D1-1Gimnasia Y TiroApr 19PRI

L0-2San Martin TucumanApr 12PRI

W2-1Atletico DE RafaelaApr 5PRI

D2-2Atletico MitreMar 29PRI

Squad & Injuries

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

CA Guemes

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy or Draw

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy at half-time / Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy at full-time

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Over 2.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals7 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

CA Guemes

Squad & Injuries

Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

CA Guemes