San Martin de Tucuman1CA Guemes1

HT 0–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

San Martin are likely to avoid defeat at home, but the 1.48 price offers no value given their seven home draws.

The only positive edge is on the first-half draw at 2.05 (55% vs 49% implied), while goals and BTTS markets are overpriced. Guemes' institutional chaos adds uncertainty, so treat heavy favorites with caution.

Context

CA Guemes are 18th in Group 2 with 22 points and are in the relegation zone.
Their away record is poor: one win, four draws, and eight losses in 13 matches, with 10 goals scored and 25 conceded. This suggests they often struggle to control games on the road. San Martin de Tucuman have lost only two home matches this season, so Guemes will need a much better away performance to get a result.
- CA Guemes away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 8 losses in 13 matches.
- CA Guemes have scored 10 goals and conceded 25 away from home.
- San Martin de Tucuman home record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses in 13 matches.
The teams have met five times in the last two years.
In the most recent match on 12 April 2026, San Martin de Tucuman won 2-0 at CA Guemes. The previous four meetings produced two draws and two Guemes wins, but San Martin have had the edge recently. This head-to-head trend may give San Martin confidence, but past results do not guarantee future performance.
- 12 April 2026: CA Guemes 0-2 San Martin de Tucuman.
- 6 July 2025: CA Guemes 2-1 San Martin de Tucuman.
- 2 March 2025: San Martin de Tucuman 1-1 CA Guemes.
San Martín centre-back Nicolás Ferreyra is available again after serving a two-match suspension for accumulated yellow cards.
His return gives the home side another option in central defence against Güemes' compact shape. Ferreyra started three of the last five matches with available lineups, so he could slot back into the back line, though the coach may stick with the pairing used in his absence.
- La Gaceta reported on 26 August that Ferreyra had completed his suspension and could again be considered against Güemes.
- Earlier reporting stated that Ferreyra’s two-match ban followed his tenth yellow card and covered the Deportivo Madryn and Chacarita fixtures.
- N. Ferreyra started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:19 · Europe/BucharestLa Gacetawww.lagaceta.com.ar · 26 Aug 2026La Gacetawww.lagaceta.com.ar · 11 Aug 2026
CA Guemes are in the relegation zone in the Primera Nacional Group 2.
They have 22 points from 26 matches, with a goal difference of -22. They are two points behind 17th-placed Patronato, who have 25 points. This pressure may force Guemes to attack more, but their poor away form makes that risky.
- CA Guemes rank 18th in Group 2 with 22 points.
- CA Guemes are 2 points behind 17th-placed Patronato (25 points).
- CA Guemes have a goal difference of -22.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

San Martin de Tucuman

1.48fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

San Martin's strong home form and Guemes' poor away record, combined with the recent H2H win, support a home victory.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Martin de Tucuman or Draw

1.09fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 91.7%

−13.7ppshort

San Martin rarely lose at home and Guemes rarely win away, making the double chance highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring rates, especially San Martin at home, and H2H trends support a low-scoring match.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin's strong home form and Guemes' poor away record, combined with the recent H2H win, support a home victory.
- San Martin home record: 4W 7D 2L, 16 goals for, 10 against in 13 home matches
- CA Guemes away record: 1W 4D 8L, 10 goals for, 25 against in 13 away matches
- San Martin overall points: 35 vs CA Guemes 22; goal difference +3 vs -22
- H2H last meeting: San Martin won 2-0 away on 12 Apr 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Martin de TucumanEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin rarely lose at home and Guemes rarely win away, making the double chance highly likely.
- San Martin home losses: only 2 in 13 home matches
- CA Guemes away wins: only 1 in 13 away matches
- H2H: 4 draws in last 6 meetings, indicating competitive but low-scoring matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Martin de Tucuman or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at half time, with Guemes rarely leading and San Martin not dominant early.
- San Martin leading at half time: 20% of matches, trailing: 27%
- CA Guemes leading at half time: 7% of matches, trailing: 40%
- H2H: 4 of last 6 meetings were level at half time (inferred from low first-half goals)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a San Martin win is plausible given their second-half strength and Guemes' poor away form.
- San Martin home matches: 7 draws, 4 wins, 2 losses
- CA Guemes away matches: 4 draws, 1 win, 8 losses
- H2H: 4 draws in last 6 meetings, with San Martin winning the most recent
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / San Martin de TucumanEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially San Martin at home, and H2H trends support a low-scoring match.
- San Martin home matches average 2.0 total goals (16+10 over 13)
- CA Guemes away matches average 2.7 total goals (10+25 over 13), but their scoring is low
- H2H: 4 of last 6 meetings had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guemes' weak away attack and San Martin's decent home defense make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- San Martin home clean sheets: 5 in 13 home matches (38%)
- CA Guemes away failed to score: 6 in 13 away matches (46%)
- CA Guemes average goals scored away: 0.77 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- San Martin first half goals per match: 0.4, first half goals conceded: 0.3
- CA Guemes first half goals per match: 0.3, first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Combined first half average: 0.85 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is slightly higher than first half, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- San Martin second half goals: total goals (0.9) minus first half (0.4) = 0.5 per match
- CA Guemes second half goals: total goals (0.7) minus first half (0.3) = 0.4 per match
- Combined second half average: 0.9 goals per match, but variance is high
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, we infer from low attacking output that corners will be limited.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Both teams have low possession and shots totals (0 averages in provided data)
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes context for Guemes could lead to more cards, but lack of data makes this speculative.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- CA Guemes is in a relegation battle with high stakes, potentially increasing aggression
- San Martin's home matches may involve tactical fouling to protect leads
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%