CA Nueva Chicago1Quilmes AC0

HT 1–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges4–450%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 01:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a low-scoring, draw-leaning match.

The best value is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.20 (model 58% vs implied 45.5%). Avoid the second-half under 1.5 at 1.22 and the first-half double chance Quilmes/draw at 1.25, as both are overpriced.

Context

Nueva Chicago sit 15th in Group 2 with 29 points, one point above the relegation line.
They have lost their last five matches, including a 2-0 defeat at Midland on 29 August and a 1-0 home loss to Atlanta on 22 August. This poor run has left them just one point above the relegation zone, so they need points to avoid slipping into danger. However, their home form is better than their away form, with only two losses in 13 home games.
- Lost 2-0 at Midland on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 1-0 at home to Atlanta on 22 August 2026.
- Scored only two goals in the last five matches.
Quilmes are 13th in Group 2 with 32 points, four points above the relegation line.
Their away record is poor: one win, four draws, and eight losses in 13 away games, with 11 goals scored and 17 conceded. This suggests they may find it difficult to impose themselves away from home, even against a struggling opponent. However, they have kept clean sheets in two of their last three away matches, showing some defensive resilience.
- Away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 8 losses in 13 matches.
- Scored 11 goals and conceded 17 away from home.
- Kept clean sheets in two of last three away games.
Gastón Lotito is the current Nueva Chicago head coach, appointed in August 2026 for a second spell.
Lotito replaced Germán Lanaro in August and has already overseen the away match at Midland on 29 August. His recent appointment leaves responsibility for the home side's selection and defensive organisation with a coach still settling into the role.
- Mundo Ascenso reported on 18 August that Lotito had been appointed for a second spell at Nueva Chicago, replacing Germán Lanaro.
- Solo Ascenso identified Lotito as Nueva Chicago's coach for the 29 August match at Midland.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 01:48 · Europe/BucharestMundo Ascenso — Lotito es el nuevo entrenador del Toritowww.mundoascenso.com.ar · 18 Aug 2026Solo Ascenso — El Torito no reacciona y cayó ante Midland en Libertadwww.soloascenso.com.ar · 30 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times in recent Primera Nacional seasons.
In the most recent meeting on 18 April 2026, the match ended 0-0 at Quilmes. Before that, Nueva Chicago won 1-0 at home on 16 November 2024, and another 0-0 draw occurred on 10 November 2024. These results indicate that matches between these sides tend to be close and low-scoring, but the sample is small and form can change.
- 0-0 draw at Quilmes on 18 April 2026.
- Nueva Chicago won 1-0 at home on 16 November 2024.
- 0-0 draw at Quilmes on 10 November 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong draw tendencies in this fixture and in their respective home/away splits, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 2 home wins (no away wins)
- Nueva Chicago home record: 4W 7D 2L (13 matches)
- Quilmes away record: 1W 4D 8L (13 matches)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago's solid home form and Quilmes' poor away record support the home side avoiding defeat.
- Nueva Chicago home record: 4W 7D 2L (13 matches)
- Quilmes away record: 1W 4D 8L (13 matches)
- H2H last 5: home side unbeaten (2W 3D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Nueva Chicago or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates, and the head-to-head history supports a level score at the break.
- Nueva Chicago first half record: 7 leads, 47 trails, 46 draws (last 15)
- Quilmes first half record: 20 leads, 20 trails, 60 draws (last 15)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to be evenly matched, with both teams showing similar second-half performance levels.
- Nueva Chicago second half record: 2W 7D 6L (last 15)
- Quilmes second half record: 5W 5D 5L (last 15)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is a plausible outcome given the teams' draw tendencies and low-scoring patterns.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall, 2 of them 0-0
- Nueva Chicago home draws: 7 in 13 matches
- Quilmes away draws: 4 in 13 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes is unlikely to lose the first half, as Nueva Chicago often trails early and Quilmes has a solid first-half record.
- Nueva Chicago first half trailing: 47% (last 15)
- Quilmes first half leading: 20% (last 15)
- H2H last 5: Quilmes never led at half time
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Quilmes ACEstimated chance68%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially at home for Nueva Chicago, and recent head-to-head meetings have been tight.
- Nueva Chicago home: 14 goals for, 9 against in 13 matches (avg 1.77 total)
- Quilmes away: 11 goals for, 17 against in 13 matches (avg 2.15 total)
- H2H last 5: 0,1,0,3,4 goals (3 of 5 under 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago's home defense is solid and Quilmes' away attack is weak, reducing the likelihood of both teams scoring.
- Nueva Chicago home: 14 goals for, 9 against in 13 matches
- Quilmes away: 11 goals for, 17 against in 13 matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of goalless first halves in this matchup.
- Nueva Chicago first half goals: 0.1 per match (last 15)
- Quilmes first half goals: 0.3 per match (last 15)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were 0-0 at half time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to remain low-scoring given both teams' modest attacking output after the break.
- Nueva Chicago second half goals: 0.4 per match (last 15)
- Quilmes second half goals: 0.7 per match (last 15)
- Combined second half average: 1.1 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago has a decent home defensive record and Quilmes struggles to score away, giving the home side a chance of a shutout.
- Nueva Chicago home clean sheets: 6 in 13 matches
- Quilmes away goals scored: 11 in 13 matches (0.85 per game)
- H2H last 5: Nueva Chicago kept clean sheet in 3 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQuilmes AC not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Quilmes has a reasonable away defensive record and Nueva Chicago's home attack is not prolific, so an away clean sheet is possible.
- Quilmes away clean sheets: 3 in 13 matches
- Nueva Chicago home goals scored: 14 in 13 matches (1.08 per game)
- H2H last 5: Quilmes kept clean sheet in 3 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA Nueva Chicago not to scoreEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CA Nueva Chicago has been highly reliable when projected for Under 2.5 goals

CA Nueva Chicago has fulfilled 6 of 8 Under 2.5 predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 71.5%, with an expected 5.7 fulfilled predictions, so actual results slightly exceeded expectation. At home, they fulfilled 4 of 5 such predictions, while away they fulfilled 2 of 3, showing consistent performance across venues.

Recent evidence for CA Nueva Chicago8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional