Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Quilmes AC0CA Temperley1

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 00:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Quilmes' strong home defense and Temperley's toothless away attack point to a low-scoring game, but the market has already priced in under 2.5 goals and BTTS No heavily.

The only positive edge is first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.25, though an early goal would sink that bet. Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and second-half over markets.

Context

Temperley is third in Group 2 with 43 points, inside the promotion playoff spots. Quilmes is tenth with 32 points and no immediate relegation threat.
Temperley's away form is modest with three wins, seven draws, and three losses, but they have only conceded seven goals in 13 away matches. Quilmes has won seven of 13 home games and conceded just five goals there. This sets up a match where the away side may be cautious and the home side is hard to break down.
- Temperley is 3rd in Group 2 with 43 points, in the promotion playoff places.
- Quilmes is 10th with 32 points, 8 points above the relegation line.
- Quilmes' home record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, with only 5 goals conceded.
F. Díaz, a CA Temperley midfielder, started all five recent fixtures with available lineups before his suspension.
His two-match ban removes him from Nicolás Domingo's midfield for this away match. Local reporting names Tomasetti and Richarte as the replacement options, so Temperley must alter its central-midfield selection and the partnership beside Adrián Arregui. The change is reported rather than confirmed, and the replacement's integration remains uncertain.
- Díaz reached a fifth yellow card during Temperley's 2-1 win over Midland and is reported to be suspended for the Quilmes and Colegiales matches.
- Diario La Unión reports that Tomasetti and Richarte are Domingo's options to replace Díaz against Quilmes.
- F. Díaz started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:19 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión: Nicolás Domingo loses a key midfield playerlaunion.com.ar · 27 Aug 2026Diario La Unión: Hauche previews Quilmes matchlaunion.com.ar · 28 Aug 2026
Quilmes has played 13 home matches this season.
They have allowed just five goals at home, an average of 0.38 per game. Temperley has scored only seven goals in 13 away matches, so goals may be scarce for the visitors. However, Temperley's away defense is also solid with seven conceded, suggesting a low-scoring contest.
- Quilmes home record: 16 goals for, 5 goals against in 13 matches.
- Temperley away record: 7 goals for, 7 goals against in 13 matches.
Quilmes are four points from the Reducido places, while Temperley sit third in Zone B, five points from the leader with a game played more.
The result has direct consequences for each side's remaining regular-season objective. Quilmes need to close the playoff gap and Temperley need to preserve contact with the top places, raising the incentive to pursue points for both teams.
- Diario La Unión reported Quilmes were four points from the Reducido places before this round.
- The same report placed Temperley third in Zone B, five points from the leader with a game played more.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:19 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión: new time and local crowd confirmedlaunion.com.ar · 26 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Quilmes AC or Draw

1.21fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' home record of 7W-4D-2L and Temperley's 7 away draws support the double chance, but the market price already reflects this heavily.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.92fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' low first-half scoring and home resilience make a draw plausible, but the odds are close to fair.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits, especially Temperley's away attack, supporting under 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' strong home defense and Temperley's low away scoring rate make it likely at least one team fails to score.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.09fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Teams tend to open up after halftime, and the combined second-half scoring rate is significantly higher than the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CA Temperley's stronger overall standing and recent form give them a slight edge, but Quilmes' solid home record keeps the probability moderate.
- CA Temperley rank 3 with 43 points vs Quilmes rank 10 with 32 points
- CA Temperley away record: 3W-7D-3L, goals 7:7
- Quilmes home record: 7W-4D-2L, goals 16:5
- Quilmes last 5 form: LWDWD; CA Temperley last 5 form: WWLLW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCA TemperleyEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' strong home form and Temperley's tendency to draw away make a home win or draw likely.
- Quilmes home record: 7W-4D-2L (only 2 losses in 13 home games)
- CA Temperley away record: 3W-7D-3L (7 draws in 13 away games)
- H2H last meeting: 3-3 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancelostQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Temperley's higher first-half scoring, Quilmes' home resilience and low first-half totals make a draw at halftime likely.
- Quilmes leading at half time in 20% of matches; trailing in 20%
- CA Temperley leading at half time in 53% of matches; trailing in 20%
- Quilmes first half goals for/against: 0.3/0.3; Temperley: 0.7/0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw tendencies in their respective home/away splits, but a full-time draw is still less likely than a decisive result.
- Quilmes home draws: 4 in 13 (31%)
- CA Temperley away draws: 7 in 13 (54%)
- H2H last meeting ended 3-3
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits, especially Temperley's away attack, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Quilmes home goals: 16 in 13 (1.23 per game); conceded 5 (0.38 per game)
- CA Temperley away goals: 7 in 13 (0.54 per game); conceded 7 (0.54 per game)
- Combined average goals in this matchup: 1.77 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' strong home defense and Temperley's low away scoring rate make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Quilmes home clean sheets: 8 in 13 (62%)
- CA Temperley away failed to score in 6 of 13 (46%)
- Quilmes home conceded only 5 goals in 13
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, making a goalless first half plausible.
- Quilmes first half goals: 0.3 per game; first half conceded: 0.3
- CA Temperley first half goals: 0.7 per game; first half conceded: 0.5
- Combined first half average: 1.0 goals per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Teams tend to open up after halftime, and the combined second-half scoring rate is significantly higher than the first half.
- Quilmes second half goals: 0.8 per game (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- CA Temperley second half goals: 0.6 per game (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.4 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league average, giving a neutral probability for over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Primera Nacional average corners per game typically around 9-10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
No card data provided, so we use league average as a neutral estimate.
- Card data unavailable for both teams
- Primera Nacional average cards per game typically around 4-5
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 25% vs our 38% estimate suggests value, but the away side's poor away record and Quilmes' home strength make this a trap.

Prediction history

Quilmes AC has fulfilled 4 of 7 recent Under 2.5 goals projections

Quilmes AC has fulfilled 4 of 7 recent Under 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 72.4%, while the current prediction of 55% sits below the historical range of 70-75%. Matched projections averaged 70.5% probability, slightly lower than the 75% average for missed projections.

Recent evidence for Quilmes AC7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional