Hegelmann1Suduva Marijampole1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 11:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Sūduva are the clear on-pitch favourite given their title urgency and superior form, but at around 1.05 the win price implies roughly 95% against a 62% model estimate — no value.

The actionable takeaway is to avoid the short Sūduva match-winner and treat the longshot Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes quotes as traps, not edges.

Context

Hegelmann sit eighth in the 10-team A Lyga with 25 points from 28 games, a record of four wins, 13 draws and 11 defeats. Their home record is two wins, eight draws and four defeats in 14 home matches.
The run is not a collapse into heavy defeats: five of the 11 were draws, including 0-0 at Šiauliai on 13 September and 1-1 at home to Banga on 23 August. But Hegelmann have scored only 30 goals in 28 games and conceded 47, so they rarely turn these matches into wins. The pattern points to a home side that can stay in games but struggles to take control of them, which matters against a leader that has lost only four times all season.
- Hegelmann's last 11 A Lyga matches: one win (2-0 at Šiauliai, 24 July), five draws and five defeats.
- Home league results in that run include a 1-3 loss to Panevėžys on 7 September and a 1-1 draw with Banga on 23 August.
- Hegelmann have 25 points from 28 games, with 13 draws, the most in the division.
Tadas Vilkevičius was confirmed on 15 September as Hegelmann's head coach through the end of the 2026 season, after Mikel Aramburu Erneta's departure. He had already led the first team in the two preceding league matches against Panevėžys and FA Šiauliai.
That confirmation settles who controls Hegelmann's selection, tactical setup and in-game management for this match, removing the interim uncertainty that followed the change. The two league matches he already oversaw give a short sample of his leadership, but they do not establish a settled pattern for how he will approach the league leaders. The confirmed appointment means the coaching responsibility is clear, while the limited sample leaves the specific match plan uncertain.
- Hegelmann announced on 15 September that Vilkevičius would lead the first team through the end of the 2026 season.
- The club stated that he had already taken charge against Panevėžys and FA Šiauliai.
- LRT independently reported Aramburu Erneta's departure and Vilkevičius taking over the first team.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 16:34 · Europe/BucharestFC Hegelmann — Tadas Vilkevičius appointed through season endfchegelmann.com · 15 Sep 2026LRT — Hegelmann replace Mikel Aramburu Erneta with Vilkevičiusarchyvai.lrt.lt · 15 Sep 2026
Suduva Marijampole are first in the A Lyga with 13 wins, 10 draws and four defeats from 27 matches. They have not lost at home all season, but four of their defeats have come away from home.
The away form is the relevant part here: 20 goals scored and 18 conceded in 14 away matches is far less dominant than their home record of 18 scored and six conceded in 13. Suduva's most recent away match was a 1-5 defeat at Kauno Žalgiris on 9 September, so their road performances have not been automatic. Against a Hegelmann side that draws often, Suduva's ability to convert away chances rather than control games is the part of their record most likely to shape this match.
- Suduva are ranked 1st in the A Lyga with 49 points from 27 games (13 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats).
- Away record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats in 14 games, scoring 20 and conceding 18.
- Recent away results include a 2-1 win at TransINVEST Vilnius on 6 September and a 1-5 defeat at Kauno Žalgiris on 9 September.
Sūduva stayed top of the A Lyga on 49 points after a 0-0 draw with Žalgiris on 13 September, with Kauno Žalgiris one point behind. The final table is decided by points, with the winners named Lithuanian champions.
That one-point lead gives Sūduva a direct incentive to protect or improve their championship position, so the trip to Hegelmann carries title-race value rather than being a low-stakes fixture. The narrow margin also means a dropped result could hand the advantage to Kauno Žalgiris, which raises the importance of taking points from this match. The standings confirm the incentive, though they do not by themselves determine how Sūduva will set up or perform.
- Sūduva's official report stated that the club remained top on 49 points after drawing 0-0 with Žalgiris.
- The same report said Kauno Žalgiris were one point behind.
- The competition regulations determine the final table by points, with the winners named Lithuanian champions.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 16:34 · Europe/BucharestFK Sūduva — 0-0 draw with Žalgirisfksuduva.lt · 13 Sep 2026TOPLYGA — 2026 competition regulationstoplyga.lt · 13 Feb 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's title-race urgency (Core 5: Motivation) plus a clear quality gap in goals scored/conceded and recent form makes the league leaders the strong favourite, with H2H psychology also favouring them.
- Sūduva lead the A Lyga on 49 points (13W-10D-4L, 38 GF / 24 GA) after 27 matches, one point clear of Kauno Žalgiris.
- Sūduva's last 15-match form shows 1.9 goals scored vs 0.8 conceded per game, with only 13% of matches trailing at half-time.
- Hegelmann sit 8th on 25 points (4W-13D-11L, 30 GF / 47 GA) and have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Sūduva won 5-1 at home in July 2026 and 2-1 in Nov 2025; the two 2026 draws came at Hegelmann's ground.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's low loss rate and Hegelmann's league-leading draw tendency (Core 5: Tactical Matchup and Motivation) make the draw-or-away double chance the safest cover.
- Sūduva have lost only 4 of 27 league matches and are unbeaten in 13 home games (7W-6D-0L).
- Hegelmann have drawn 13 of 28 matches (46%), the highest draw rate in the division.
- Hegelmann's last 5 league results: D, L, D, D, L — no wins.
- Sūduva's away record is 6W-4D-4L with 20 goals scored in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Suduva MarijampoleEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's half-time lead frequency against Hegelmann's high half-time trailing rate (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) makes the away side the most likely first-half winner.
- Sūduva led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Hegelmann trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Sūduva scored 3 first-half goals in the 5-1 H2H win in July 2026.
- Hegelmann have conceded 0.9 first-half goals per game across their last 15.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's superior win rate and H2H edge (Core 5: H2H Psychology and Motivation) justify giving the away side a half-goal handicap.
- Sūduva have won 13 of 27 league matches and lost only 4.
- Hegelmann have won only 4 of 28 league matches and lost 11.
- Sūduva's away record: 6W-4D-4L with a +2 goal difference on the road.
- H2H last 5: Sūduva won 2, drew 2, lost 1.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostSuduva Marijampole -0.5Estimated chance58%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's leaky defence (1.8 conceded per game) against Sūduva's 1.9 scoring rate (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) gives a modest edge to the over line.
- Sūduva average 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match across their last 15.
- Hegelmann average 0.9 scored and 1.8 conceded per match across their last 15.
- Combined recent average goals per match: 2.7.
- H2H last 5 produced 5-1, 2-2, 0-0, 2-1, 2-1 — three of five went over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's home scoring rate (1.29 per game) against Sūduva's away concession rate (1.29 per game) (Core 5: Structural Home/Away Edge) makes both teams scoring a reasonable lean.
- Hegelmann have scored in 9 of their last 15 matches, including 1 goal in the 5-1 loss to Sūduva.
- Sūduva have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 15 but conceded in the 5-1 win over Hegelmann.
- Hegelmann's home record shows 18 goals scored in 14 home matches (1.29 per game).
- Sūduva's away record shows 18 goals conceded in 14 away matches (1.29 per game).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's early scoring pattern and Hegelmann's tendency to trail at half-time (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) support at least one first-half goal.
- Sūduva average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded across their last 15.
- Hegelmann average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded across their last 15.
- Sūduva led at half-time in 33% of matches; Hegelmann trailed at half-time in 47%.
- H2H July 2026: Sūduva led 3-0 at half-time in the 5-1 win.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring and Hegelmann's second-half concession rate (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) point to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Sūduva average 1.2 second-half goals per match (1.9 total minus 0.7 first-half).
- Hegelmann average 0.6 second-half goals per match (0.9 total minus 0.3 first-half).
- Hegelmann concede 0.9 second-half goals per match (1.8 total minus 0.9 first-half).
- H2H July 2026 produced 2 second-half goals in a 5-1 Sūduva win.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's 40% clean-sheet rate against Hegelmann's 0.9 goals-per-game average (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) gives a modest chance of an away clean sheet.
- Sūduva have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 15 matches (40%).
- Hegelmann have failed to score in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Hegelmann scored only 1 goal in the 5-1 H2H loss in July 2026.
- Sūduva concede 0.8 goals per game across their last 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHegelmann not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's low scoring rate against Sūduva's strong defensive record (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) makes under 1.5 home goals the likely outcome.
- Hegelmann average 0.9 goals per match across their last 15.
- Hegelmann have scored 1 or fewer goals in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Sūduva concede only 0.8 goals per game across their last 15.
- Hegelmann scored 1 goal in the 5-1 H2H loss in July 2026.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHegelmann under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's 1.9 goals-per-game rate against Hegelmann's 1.8 concession rate (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) supports over 1.5 away goals.
- Sūduva average 1.9 goals per match across their last 15.
- Sūduva scored 5 goals in the July 2026 H2H win over Hegelmann.
- Hegelmann concede 1.8 goals per game across their last 15.
- Sūduva's away record shows 20 goals in 14 away matches (1.43 per game).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSuduva Marijampole over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's clean-sheet frequency and recent away wins to nil (Core 5: Tactical Matchup) give a low-probability win-to-nil angle.
- Sūduva have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Sūduva won 2-0 away at Džiugas and 3-0 away at Banga in recent matches.
- Hegelmann have failed to score in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Sūduva's away record shows 18 goals conceded in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%