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Predictions graded

Zalgiris Kaunas5Suduva Marijampole1

HT 2–0Wed 9 Sept 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges10–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Zalgiris Kaunas are overvalued at 1.91 to beat Suduva, with our model giving them only a 42% chance versus the 52% implied.

The only slight value lies in over 2.5 goals at 1.91, where our 55% estimate edges the 52.4% implied, but the margin is thin and recent form suggests caution.

Context

Suduva Marijampole sit first in the A Lyga with 48 points from 25 matches, six ahead of Zalgiris Kaunas.
Their current run of five consecutive league wins includes a 2-1 away victory over TransINVEST Vilnius on 2026-09-06 and a 2-1 win at Šiauliai on 2026-08-30. This form suggests they are in strong shape, but the sample is limited to recent league games and does not guarantee a repeat against a direct rival.
- Suduva Marijampole have 48 points from 25 matches, six more than Zalgiris Kaunas.
- They have won their last five A Lyga matches: 2-1 at TransINVEST Vilnius on 2026-09-06, 2-1 at Šiauliai on 2026-08-30, 2-0 vs Panevėžys on 2026-08-23, 2-0 at Džiugas Telšiai on 2026-08-17, and 3-0 at Banga on 2026-08-09.
Sūduva lead the A Lyga with 48 points from 25 matches, while Kauno Žalgiris sit second on 42 from 24. The September 9 meeting in Kaunas is a direct contest between the top two.
The result will immediately change the gap between the leading pair. A home win cuts Sūduva's advantage to three points with a game in hand for Kauno Žalgiris, while an away win extends the lead to nine. The table situation can influence how each side manages risk, particularly if the score is level late on.
- Sūduva's official table lists Sūduva first on 48 points from 25 matches and Kauno Žalgiris second on 42 from 24.
- Sūduva's official fixture page lists Kauno Žalgiris versus Sūduva on September 9.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 03:47 · Europe/BucharestFK Sūduva 2026 tablefksuduva.lt · 7 Sep 2026FK Sūduva fixture pagefksuduva.lt · 9 Sep 2026
Zalgiris Kaunas are second in the A Lyga with 42 points from 24 matches.
They are unbeaten in their last five matches, including a 5-0 home win over Džiugas Telšiai on 2026-09-06 and a 1-0 cup win at Šiauliai on 2026-09-03. However, they have drawn twice in that run, which has allowed Suduva to extend the lead to six points.
- Zalgiris Kaunas have 42 points from 24 matches, six behind Suduva Marijampole.
- Their last five results: W 5-0 vs Džiugas Telšiai (2026-09-06), W 1-0 at Šiauliai (Cup, 2026-09-03), D 0-0 at Banga (2026-08-30), W 1-0 vs Beşiktaş (Europa League, 2026-08-27), L 0-3 at Beşiktaş (Europa League, 2026-08-20).
Suduva Marijampole and Zalgiris Kaunas have met twice in the A Lyga this season.
On 2026-05-23, Suduva won 2-1 at home, and on 2026-03-21, the teams drew 1-1 at Zalgiris. These results indicate that matches between them are often decided by small margins, but the sample is only two games and may not reflect current form.
- 2026-05-23: Suduva Marijampole 2-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-03-21: Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Zalgiris Kaunas

1.91fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and strong home scoring give Zalgiris a slight edge, but Suduva's away form and title-race motivation keep it close.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zalgiris Kaunas or Draw

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams are strong at avoiding defeat in their respective home/away splits, making a home win or draw likely.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zalgiris Kaunas or Draw

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Zalgiris are unlikely to trail at half-time at home, and Suduva rarely trail, making a home win or draw at the break likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.83fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 54.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, supporting a both-teams-score outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 0.5 first-half goals combined, making a first-half goal likely.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong first-half defensive records, making it unlikely that both score before the break.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zalgiris Kaunas to score

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Zalgiris' strong home scoring makes it unlikely that Suduva will keep a clean sheet.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Zalgiris' home scoring average and Suduva's away defensive record support a home total over 1.5.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Suduva's away scoring consistency makes an away goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and strong home scoring give Zalgiris a slight edge, but Suduva's away form and title-race motivation keep it close.
- Zalgiris Kaunas home record: 7W 4D 3L, 29 goals for, 8 against in 14 home matches
- Suduva away record: 6W 4D 3L, 19 goals for, 13 against in 13 away matches
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 1 Zalgiris win, 2 Suduva wins (including a 4-0 friendly)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are strong at avoiding defeat in their respective home/away splits, making a home win or draw likely.
- Zalgiris home record: 7W 4D 3L (78.6% unbeaten at home)
- Suduva away record: 6W 4D 3L (76.9% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 ended in draws or Zalgiris win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZalgiris Kaunas or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris have a higher rate of leading at half-time, but Suduva's low trailing rate makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Zalgiris leading at half-time in 40% of matches
- Suduva trailing at half-time in only 7% of matches
- H2H last 5: first-half results not available
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Zalgiris win is plausible given both teams' tendency to draw, but the specific sequence is uncommon.
- Zalgiris home record: 7W 4D 3L, with 4 draws at home
- Suduva away record: 6W 4D 3L, with 4 draws away
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 1 Zalgiris win
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Zalgiris KaunasEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris would need to lead at half-time and win the second half, which is unlikely given Suduva's resilience.
- Zalgiris leading at half-time in 40% of matches
- Zalgiris home win rate: 50% (7 of 14)
- Suduva trailing at half-time in only 7% of matches
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris are unlikely to trail at half-time at home, and Suduva rarely trail, making a home win or draw at the break likely.
- Zalgiris leading at half-time in 40% of matches, drawing in 40% (implied)
- Suduva trailing at half-time in only 7% of matches
- H2H first-half data unavailable
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonZalgiris Kaunas or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have positive goal differences and scoring ability, but recent low-scoring games temper the over probability.
- Zalgiris home matches average 2.64 total goals (29 for, 8 against in 14)
- Suduva away matches average 2.46 total goals (19 for, 13 against in 13)
- Zalgiris recent form: 5-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-3 in last 5 (avg 2.0 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, supporting a both-teams-score outcome.
- Zalgiris home: scored in 11 of 14 home matches (78.6%)
- Suduva away: scored in 10 of 13 away matches (76.9%)
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 0.5 first-half goals combined, making a first-half goal likely.
- Zalgiris first-half goals: 0.7 per match average, conceded 0.5
- Suduva first-half goals: 0.7 per match average, conceded 0.2
- Zalgiris leading at half-time in 40% of matches, Suduva in 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be higher for both teams, but the estimate is based on derived averages and carries uncertainty.
- Zalgiris average 1.5 goals per match overall, with 0.7 in first half implies 0.8 in second half
- Suduva average 2.0 goals per match overall, with 0.7 in first half implies 1.3 in second half
- Combined second-half average estimated at 2.1 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong first-half defensive records, making it unlikely that both score before the break.
- Zalgiris first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per match
- Suduva first-half goals conceded: 0.2 per match
- Combined first-half goals average: 1.4, but both teams scoring in first half is less common
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris have a solid home defense, but Suduva's away scoring record makes a clean sheet less likely.
- Zalgiris home goals conceded: 8 in 14 matches (0.57 per match)
- Suduva away goals scored: 19 in 13 matches (1.46 per match)
- Zalgiris kept clean sheets in 5 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSuduva Marijampole not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris' strong home scoring makes it unlikely that Suduva will keep a clean sheet.
- Zalgiris home goals scored: 29 in 14 matches (2.07 per match)
- Suduva away goals conceded: 13 in 13 matches (1.0 per match)
- Zalgiris failed to score in only 3 of 14 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZalgiris Kaunas to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris' home scoring average and Suduva's away defensive record support a home total over 1.5.
- Zalgiris home goals per match: 2.07
- Zalgiris scored 2+ goals in 9 of 14 home matches (64.3%)
- Suduva away goals conceded per match: 1.0
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonZalgiris Kaunas over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suduva's away scoring consistency makes an away goal likely.
- Suduva away goals per match: 1.46
- Suduva scored in 10 of 13 away matches (76.9%)
- Zalgiris home goals conceded per match: 0.57
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSuduva Marijampole over 0.5Estimated chance65%