FA Siauliai0Hegelmann0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 05:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Hegelmann are slight favourites despite losing their top scorer, and the only value bet is on them to win at 2.40 (edge +3.3%).

Avoid all other markets, especially the heavily juiced home clean sheet 'No' and first-half over 0.5 goals.

Context

FA Siauliai sit 9th in the A Lyga with 16 points from 27 matches, only above the inactive FK Trakai.
Their recent results show a clear struggle: losses to FK Zalgiris Vilnius (0-1 on 2026-09-06), Kauno Žalgiris (0-1 on 2026-09-03), Suduva Marijampole (1-2 on 2026-08-30), and TransINVEST Vilnius (0-3 on 2026-08-24). The only win in that stretch came against Panevėžys (1-0 on 2026-08-17). This poor run suggests defensive and attacking issues, but the sample is limited to recent weeks and may not fully capture their season-long performance.
- Lost 0-1 to FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 2026-09-06.
- Lost 0-1 to Kauno Žalgiris on 2026-09-03.
- Lost 1-2 to Suduva Marijampole on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 0-3 to TransINVEST Vilnius on 2026-08-24.
Hegelmann attacker N. Kader has not started any of the last five available lineups, while D. Tibell has started in the same position in all five.
With leading scorer Njoya Abdel transferred to Nacional, Hegelmann must adjust its forward line. The recent pattern shows N. Kader on the bench and D. Tibell starting, so Tibell is likely to continue in that role. This reduces the attacking options available to Hegelmann for this match.
- CD Nacional announced an agreement with FC Hegelmann for 22-year-old forward Njoya Abdel on 5 September.
- Nacional stated that Abdel signed a five-season contract and joined its senior squad.
- N. Kader started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- D. Tibell started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when N. Kader did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 05:16 · Europe/BucharestCD Nacional transfer announcementwww.cdnacional.pt · 5 Sep 2026
Hegelmann sit 8th with 24 points from 27 matches, eight points clear of the relegation line.
Their recent league form includes a 1-3 home loss to Panevėžys on 2026-09-07, a 2-2 draw at Džiugas Telšiai on 2026-08-31, a 1-1 home draw with Banga on 2026-08-23, a 0-2 loss at Kauno Žalgiris on 2026-08-08, and a 1-2 home loss to TransINVEST Vilnius on 2026-08-02. The draws show some resilience, but the lack of wins indicates they are not in strong shape. This pattern may continue against a similarly struggling opponent.
- Lost 1-3 to Panevėžys on 2026-09-07.
- Drew 2-2 with Džiugas Telšiai on 2026-08-31.
- Drew 1-1 with Banga on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 0-2 to Kauno Žalgiris on 2026-08-08.
The teams have met five times since 2025, with Hegelmann winning twice and three draws.
The most recent encounter was a 2-0 away win for Hegelmann on 2026-07-24. Earlier in 2026, they drew 1-1 twice, and in 2025 Hegelmann won 1-0 away and lost 1-3 at home in the Cup. This recent victory may give Hegelmann a slight edge, but the overall head-to-head is fairly balanced, so it is not a decisive factor.
- Hegelmann won 2-0 away on 2026-07-24.
- The teams drew 1-1 on 2026-05-09 and 2026-03-11.
- Hegelmann won 1-0 away on 2025-09-14.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hegelmann

1.40fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

FA Siauliai's poor home form and Hegelmann's draw-heavy record make a Hegelmann win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Combined average goals per match is 3.3, driven by high goals-against averages, but the edge is negative at current odds.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, but the edge is negative at current odds.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goals average is 1.7, but the edge is heavily negative at current odds.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hegelmann to score

1.03fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

FA Siauliai have conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches, but the odds offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's superior league position and recent H2H away win give them a slight edge, though their poor away form tempers confidence.
- Hegelmann rank 8th with 24 points, FA Siauliai rank 9th with 16 points
- Hegelmann away record: 2W 4D 7L, FA Siauliai home record: 3W 1D 9L
- Last H2H: Hegelmann won 2-0 away at FA Siauliai on 2026-07-24
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHegelmannEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FA Siauliai's poor home form and Hegelmann's draw-heavy record make a Hegelmann win or draw highly likely.
- FA Siauliai have lost 9 of 13 home matches this season
- Hegelmann have drawn 12 of 27 matches overall
- Last 5 H2H: 2 Hegelmann wins, 2 draws, 1 FA Siauliai win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HegelmannEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- FA Siauliai led at half-time in 7% of matches, trailed in 53%
- Hegelmann led at half-time in 7% of matches, trailed in 53%
- Both teams have identical half-time leading/trailing percentages
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is possible given Hegelmann's draw-heavy record.
- FA Siauliai have drawn 7 of 27 matches
- Hegelmann have drawn 12 of 27 matches
- Last H2H meeting ended 2-0 to Hegelmann
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals-against averages, suggesting a match with multiple goals.
- FA Siauliai average 1.0 goals for and 2.4 goals against per match
- Hegelmann average 1.0 goals for and 1.9 goals against per match
- Combined average goals per match: 3.3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability despite poor defensive records.
- FA Siauliai scored in 10 of their last 15 matches
- Hegelmann scored in 12 of their last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede first-half goals regularly, making a first-half goal likely.
- FA Siauliai average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.2 first-half goals against
- Hegelmann average 0.3 first-half goals for and 1.1 first-half goals against
- Combined first-half goals average: 1.7
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals as both teams push for results.
- FA Siauliai average 0.5 second-half goals for and 1.2 second-half goals against
- Hegelmann average 0.7 second-half goals for and 0.8 second-half goals against
- Combined second-half goals average: 1.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FA Siauliai's defensive record makes a clean sheet highly unlikely.
- FA Siauliai have conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches
- FA Siauliai average 2.4 goals against per match
- Hegelmann have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHegelmann to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's defensive vulnerabilities suggest they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Hegelmann have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Hegelmann average 1.9 goals against per match
- FA Siauliai have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFA Siauliai to scoreEstimated chance60%