Brann2Bodo/Glimt1

HT 1–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 17:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 6–17On targetOn target 2–8CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 09:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodo/Glimt lead Eliteserien and have won 7 of 10 away league games, but Brann have scored in 7 of 8 home matches and took them to penalties in May's cup final.

Bodo/Glimt are the likely winners, though the 1.57 price asks too much. The draw at 4.75 and Under 2.5 goals at 3.3 are the prices worth considering.

Context

This is a league meeting with clear season objectives attached to both sides: Brann are pursuing European qualification and Bodø/Glimt are pursuing the title. That gives the fixture competition context without assuming either objective creates an on-pitch advantage.
- Brann’s 10 September match announcement says Brann are chasing European places for next season.
- The same announcement says Bodø/Glimt want another league title.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 09:36 · Europe/BucharestBrann: Nå slippes billettene: Brann–Bodø/Glimtwww.brann.no · 10 Sep 2026
The cup tie gives Brann a short recovery and preparation window before meeting Bodø/Glimt. The involvement of several established players makes the midweek fixture relevant to Sunday’s selection and preparation.
- Brann beat Os 2-1 away in the Norwegian Cup on 16 September.
- Kristall Mani Ingason equalised from the penalty spot in the 89th minute and Sævar Atli Magnússon scored the winner a minute later.
- Brann used Thore Pedersen, Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen, Vetle Dragsnes, Kristian Eriksen and Jacob Lungi Sørensen.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 09:36 · Europe/BucharestBrann: Videre etter cupthriller mot Oswww.brann.no · 16 Sep 2026
The confirmed sell-out gives the match a full-capacity setting at Brann Stadion, adding to the occasion for both sets of supporters.
- Bodø/Glimt’s official X account listed the fixture as Eliteserien round 22 at Brann Stadion.
- The same matchday post stated that the match is sold out.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 09:36 · Europe/Bucharest
The teams reconvene after a recent cup final that went to penalties, providing a clear competitive backstory for this league fixture.
- Brann and Bodø/Glimt drew 3-3 after extra time in the 9 May Norwegian Cup final.
- Bodø/Glimt won the final 4-2 on penalties.
- Bodø/Glimt’s official X account described this fixture as the clubs’ third meeting of 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 09:36 · Europe/BucharestBrann: Surt cupfinaletap etter straffesparkkonkurransewww.brann.no · 9 May 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt are clearly the stronger team on league position and away results, while Brann have lost half their home league games.
- Bodo/Glimt lead Eliteserien with 50 points from 20 games (16W-2D-2L)
- They have won 7 of 10 away league games, scoring 21 goals
- They have won 12 of 14 competitive matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.88
The read
Bodo/Glimt often reach the break without conceding and Brann's first halves are modest, so a level half-time score is the single most likely result.
- Bodo/Glimt concede 0.21 first-half goals in competitive matches
- Brann's home first halves show 0.63 scored and 0.88 conceded
- Brann average 0.67 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves are higher-scoring for both teams, but the teams are close enough after the break for a level period to be the most likely single outcome.
- Brann average 1.2 second-half goals and concede 0.67
- Bodo/Glimt's away second halves show 1.125 scored and 1.125 conceded
- Bodo/Glimt concede 0.857 second-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Neither side draws often, but the gap in quality and Brann's home advantage point to a tight match that can finish level. Bodo/Glimt are clearly the stronger team on league position and away results, while Brann have lost half their home league games.
- Brann have drawn 3 of 15 tracked matches
- Bodo/Glimt have drawn 1 of 14 competitive matches in the window
- Bodo/Glimt lead Eliteserien with 50 points from 20 games (16W-2D-2L)
- They have won 7 of 10 away league games, scoring 21 goals
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt often reach the break without conceding and Brann's first halves are modest, so a level half-time score is the single most likely result. Bodo/Glimt start quickly and almost never trail at the break, giving them a strong share of the first-half result.
- Bodo/Glimt concede 0.21 first-half goals in competitive matches
- Brann's home first halves show 0.63 scored and 0.88 conceded
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.36 first-half goals in competitive matches
- They concede 0.21 first-half goals on average
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance82%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks score regularly and neither defence is watertight, with Bodo/Glimt's away games in particular producing goals.
- Brann's tracked matches average 3.1 goals in total
- Bodo/Glimt's competitive matches average 3.8 goals in total
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.5 goals per away match in the window
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann rarely get shut out at home and Bodo/Glimt almost always score, so both finding the net is more likely than not.
- Brann have scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Bodo/Glimt have failed to score in only 1 of 14 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Brann's 8 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The away defence concedes little and is the main reason Brann are more likely to be held to one goal or none.
- Bodo/Glimt have 7 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Bodo/Glimt concede 0.67 goals per home match in the window
- Brann failed to score in 3 of 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBrann under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt score heavily on the road and Brann concede regularly at home, so two or more away goals is the more likely outcome.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.5 goals per away match in the window
- Brann concede 1.5 goals per home match this season
- Bodo/Glimt have scored in 13 of 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBodo/Glimt over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's home matches have almost always produced a home goal, making a full shut-out the less likely result.
- Brann have scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Brann average 2.13 goals per home match in the window
- Both teams scored in 6 of Brann's 8 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrann to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's home scoring makes it more likely that any Bodo/Glimt win includes a home goal.
- Brann scored in 7 of 8 home matches in the tracked window
- Brann average 2.13 goals per home match
- Bodo/Glimt conceded 1.375 goals per away match
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams contribute first-half goals at a steady rate, making at least one goal before the break the likely result.
- Brann's tracked matches average 1.27 first-half goals
- Bodo/Glimt's competitive matches average 1.57 first-half goals
- Bodo/Glimt's away first halves show 1.375 scored and 0.25 conceded
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is the busier period for both teams, making two or more goals after the break slightly more likely than not.
- Brann's matches average 1.87 second-half goals in total
- Bodo/Glimt's competitive matches average 2.21 second-half goals in total
- Brann average 1.5 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's away games and their habit of conceding few corners push the total below the line more often than not.
- Bodo/Glimt's away matches average 9.3 total corners
- Bodo/Glimt concede 3.5 corners per competitive match
- Brann's tracked matches average 12 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals in both teams' matches sit around or above the line, and this is a sold-out meeting between a title chaser and a European hopeful.
- Brann's tracked matches average 4.3 cards combined
- Bodo/Glimt's competitive matches average 2.8 cards combined
- Opponents average more than 2 cards against both teams
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 4.33 price requires 23.1%, above our 21.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

8 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Bodo/Glimt matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien