Werder Bremen3FC Augsburg2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 20–7On targetOn target 11–4CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 04:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or FC Augsburg (double chance) at 1.62 for a +6.3 point edge, and consider Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, where the market is overpricing the probabilities.

Context

Werder Bremen midfielder J. Stage is out with a thigh injury sustained in final training.
His confirmed long-term absence removes a central option for ball progression and defensive coverage. Bremen will need to adjust their midfield setup, likely relying on other players to fill that role, which could affect their ability to control the middle of the pitch against Augsburg.
- Werder confirmed on 11 September that Stage remained unavailable because of a thigh muscle injury.
- Bundesliga reported on 30 August, citing Werder, that the injury sustained in final training would keep him out for several months.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:47 · Europe/BucharestWerder Bremen squad updatepre-prod.werder.de · 11 Sep 2026Bundesliga report on Stage's injurywww.bundesliga.com · 30 Aug 2026
FC Augsburg are third in the Bundesliga with seven points from three matches.
Their away form is strong: they won 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on 6 September, scoring four goals. This suggests they can create chances away from home, but it is only one away league match this season, so the sample is small.
- FC Augsburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 away on 2026-09-06.
- FC Augsburg have won their only away Bundesliga match this season.
Werder Bremen head coach Daniel Thioune is still embedding new players and prioritising defensive standards.
Thioune's comments indicate Bremen will focus on work rate, resilience, and protecting their goal rather than sustained possession. This suggests a more cautious approach, with transitions and defensive organisation taking precedence, which could limit their attacking ambition against Augsburg.
- Thioune said five of the new players who started against Leipzig had not completed a proper pre-season.
- He said Bremen want to play more football but are currently establishing a shared identity and non-negotiable defensive standards.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:47 · Europe/BucharestThioune press conference before Kölnpre-prod.werder.de · 10 Sep 2026
Werder Bremen are tenth in the Bundesliga with four points.
In the most recent meeting at Werder Bremen, Augsburg won 3-1 on 2 May 2026. Augsburg also won 2-0 at Bremen in January 2025, so they have a good recent record at this venue. However, past results do not guarantee future performance.
- FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 3-1 away on 2026-05-02.
- FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 2-0 away on 2025-01-19.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's stronger recent form and superior attacking output, combined with their recent H2H win, give them the edge despite Werder Bremen's home advantage.
- FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 Bundesliga matches (2W, 1D), scoring 9 goals and conceding 3.
- Werder Bremen have lost 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches, conceding 6 goals in that span.
- FC Augsburg won the most recent H2H meeting 3-1 away at Werder Bremen on 2026-05-02.
- FC Augsburg average 2.9 goals per match over their last 15 matches, while Werder Bremen average 1.9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC AugsburgEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's strong form and Werder Bremen's poor H2H record make the away side or draw the most likely outcome.
- FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 Bundesliga matches (2W, 1D).
- Werder Bremen have lost 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0, with 2 draws and 3 FC Augsburg wins.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FC AugsburgEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's superior first-half scoring average gives them a slight edge, but the probability remains low due to Werder Bremen's home advantage.
- FC Augsburg have led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches, compared to Werder Bremen's 50%.
- Werder Bremen have trailed at half-time in 29% of their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals, while Werder Bremen average 0.9.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC AugsburgEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's strong second-half scoring and Werder Bremen's defensive struggles after the break support an away second-half win.
- FC Augsburg average 1.6 second-half goals, while Werder Bremen average 1.0.
- FC Augsburg have won the second half in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- Werder Bremen have lost the second half in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC AugsburgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an FC Augsburg win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength, but the combined probability is low.
- Werder Bremen have drawn at half-time in 21% of their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg have won 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, FC Augsburg have won 3 times.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FC AugsburgEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's overall superiority makes winning both halves possible, but it remains an unlikely outcome.
- FC Augsburg have won both halves in 1 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- Werder Bremen have lost both halves in 1 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- FC Augsburg average more goals in both halves than Werder Bremen.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostFC AugsburgEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's stronger first-half scoring and Werder Bremen's occasional slow starts make the away side or draw the safer first-half bet.
- FC Augsburg have led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches, while Werder Bremen have led in 50%.
- Werder Bremen have trailed at half-time in 29% of their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals, while Werder Bremen average 0.9.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC AugsburgEstimated chance62%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially FC Augsburg, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Werder Bremen's last 15 matches average 3.3 total goals (1.9 for, 1.4 against).
- FC Augsburg's last 15 matches average 4.6 total goals (2.9 for, 1.7 against).
- FC Augsburg's last 3 Bundesliga matches have produced 12 goals (4.0 per match).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and FC Augsburg's attack is potent, making both teams scoring likely.
- Werder Bremen have scored in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- FC Augsburg have scored in all 3 Bundesliga matches this season, with 9 goals total.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Augsburg's strong first-half scoring record suggests a lively opening period, though the probability remains moderate.
- Werder Bremen average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.6 against over their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals for and 0.9 against over their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg's last 3 Bundesliga matches have seen 5 first-half goals (1.67 per match).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, with FC Augsburg particularly prolific after the break.
- Werder Bremen average 1.0 second-half goals for and 0.8 against over their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg average 1.6 second-half goals for and 0.8 against over their last 15 matches.
- FC Augsburg's last 3 Bundesliga matches have seen 7 second-half goals (2.33 per match).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring records, but the probability of both scoring before the break is moderate.
- Werder Bremen average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- FC Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals for and 0.9 against.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Werder Bremen has matched Over 2.5 in 3 of 5 recent projections

Werder Bremen's Over 2.5 projections have been fulfilled 3 times in 5 matches. The average estimated probability was 67.6%, with an expected 3.4 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment was slightly below expectation. The current probability of 58% is below the historical range of 62-75%, indicating a lower confidence projection than recent ones.

Recent evidence for Werder Bremen5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 May·Bundesliga