Newcastle2Hull City1

HT 2–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 12–22On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest

The market overrates Newcastle despite their winless home start and Hull's unbeaten away record.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score at 1.75 (+2.9 points), but it is marginal. Avoid the match winner, over 2.5 goals, and first-half goals markets due to negative value.

Context

Hull City are third in the Premier League with 8 points from 4 games.
Their unbeaten start includes a 2-0 home win over Manchester United on 22 August and a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on 12 September. This shows they can compete against stronger sides, but their away record is mixed with one win and one draw.
- Hull City are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games (2W, 2D).
- They beat Manchester United 2-0 at home on 22 August 2026.
- They drew 2-2 at Chelsea on 12 September 2026.
Newcastle attacker M. Fernandez-Pardo has completed his first full training week since joining, with head coach Matthias Jaissle saying he is getting closer to starting.
His load-managed status creates uncertainty around the attacking personnel available after Newcastle's Leeds fixture, and it is not yet a confirmed selection change for Hull. The Leeds matchday decision will be the next direct indication of whether his managed workload has progressed.
- Newcastle head coach Matthias Jaissle said Fernandez-Pardo was getting closer to starting.
- Jaissle said the forward had completed his first full training week since joining.
- Jaissle said the immediate selection decision would be made on the Leeds matchday.
To watchSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:09 · Europe/BucharestNewcastle United team-news updatewww.newcastleunited.com · 10 Sep 2026
Newcastle are 10th with 5 points from 3 games.
They drew 2-2 with Bournemouth on 5 September and 2-2 with Liverpool on 23 August at home. Their defence has been leaky at home, which could give Hull City chances.
- Newcastle have 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses at home in the Premier League.
- They drew 2-2 with Bournemouth on 5 September 2026.
- They drew 2-2 with Liverpool on 23 August 2026.
Newcastle defender A. Dedić came off with hamstring discomfort during the cup win at Millwall, and Jaissle said the problem did not look too serious.
An unresolved right-side defensive availability issue can affect Newcastle's defensive selection and wide structure, but it remains unconfirmed for Hull. T. Livramento replaced Dedić at Millwall and completed 45 minutes, providing a ready cover option if needed.
- A. Dedić came off with hamstring discomfort during Newcastle's cup win at Millwall.
- Jaissle said the problem did not look too serious.
- T. Livramento replaced Dedić at Millwall and completed 45 minutes.
ReportedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:09 · Europe/BucharestFantasy Football Scout team newswww.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Newcastle or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Newcastle's home form and Hull's away resilience make a home win or draw the most likely outcome, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Newcastle's home games average 4.0 total goals, but Hull's away games average only 2.5; the edge is negative, so this is not a value bet.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's estimate of 65% is significantly lower than the implied probability of 80%, indicating no value in this market.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's home advantage and stronger squad depth give them a slight edge, but Hull's unbeaten away start and solid defensive record make this a close contest.
- Newcastle home record this season: 0W-2D-0L, 4 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Hull City away record this season: 1W-1D-0L, 3 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Newcastle last 5 home matches (all comps): 2W-2D-1L
- Hull City last 5 away matches (all comps): 2W-2D-1L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNewcastleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been difficult to beat in their respective home/away splits, making a Newcastle win or draw the most likely outcome.
- Newcastle have not lost at home this season (2 draws)
- Hull City have not lost away this season (1 win, 1 draw)
- Newcastle's last 5 home matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
- Hull City's last 5 away matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNewcastle or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be level at half-time, with Hull particularly strong at avoiding early deficits.
- Newcastle have led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 40%
- Hull City have led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 0%
- Newcastle's last 5 matches: 2 first-half leads, 2 draws, 1 trail
- Hull City's last 5 matches: 2 first-half leads, 3 draws
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's stronger second-half scoring record at home gives them a slight edge to win the second period.
- Newcastle have won the second half in 2 of 3 league matches
- Hull City have won the second half in 1 of 4 league matches
- Newcastle average 1.0 second-half goals scored vs 0.8 conceded
- Hull City average 0.6 second-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNewcastleEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Newcastle win is a plausible scenario given both teams' first-half tendencies and Newcastle's home advantage.
- Newcastle have drawn at half-time in 2 of 3 league matches
- Newcastle have won 1 of 3 league matches overall
- Hull City have drawn at half-time in 3 of 4 league matches
- Hull City have won 2 of 4 league matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/NewcastleEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's home games have been high-scoring, and while Hull are defensively solid, the hosts' attacking intent should create enough chances for over 2.5 goals.
- Newcastle average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match this season
- Hull City average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match this season
- Newcastle home matches this season have averaged 4.0 total goals
- Hull City away matches this season have averaged 2.5 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities at home increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- Newcastle have scored in all 3 league matches this season
- Hull City have scored in 3 of 4 league matches this season
- Newcastle have conceded in 2 of 3 league matches
- Hull City have conceded in 2 of 4 league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- Newcastle average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Hull City average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded
- Newcastle have scored in the first half in 2 of 3 league matches
- Hull City have scored in the first half in 2 of 4 league matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been moderate for both teams, but Newcastle's home matches tend to open up after the break, giving a slight lean to over 1.5.
- Newcastle average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded
- Hull City average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Newcastle home matches have seen 2.0 second-half goals on average
- Hull City away matches have seen 1.5 second-half goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Newcastle average 5.8 corners per match, opponents 4.3
- Hull City average 4.3 corners per match, opponents 6.0
- Newcastle home matches average 5.0 corners for, 4.5 against
- Hull City away matches average 4.0 corners for, 6.5 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per match, and the competitive nature of this fixture could push total cards over 3.5.
- Newcastle average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- Hull City average 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Newcastle home matches average 2.5 yellow cards
- Hull City away matches average 3.0 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages are around 8.5, making this a borderline call.
- Newcastle average 4.7 shots on target per match
- Hull City average 3.6 shots on target per match
- Newcastle home matches average 5.0 shots on target
- Hull City away matches average 3.5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%