Sunderland1Hull City0

HT 0–0Tue 8 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 14–7On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 7–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 01:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the first-half draw at 2.25 (model 55% vs implied 44%) and lean under 2.5 goals, but avoid Sunderland in the match winner market as the odds overstate their chances.

Hull's defensive solidity and the away-team trend in this fixture make a low-scoring, tight contest likely.

Context

Sunderland and Hull City have met regularly in the Championship in recent seasons.
Hull City won the last four meetings, each by a 1-0 scoreline. The most recent was on 22 February 2025, when Hull won away at Sunderland. This pattern suggests Hull have been able to keep Sunderland from scoring in these fixtures, but the sample is small and the teams may have changed since then.
- Hull City won 1-0 away at Sunderland on 22 February 2025.
- Hull City won 1-0 at home against Sunderland on 20 October 2024.
- Hull City won 1-0 away at Sunderland on 19 January 2024.
- Hull City won 1-0 at home against Sunderland on 26 December 2023.
Sunderland midfielder H. Diarra is ruled out for six to eight weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in the previous week's win.
Sunderland must set their cup selection without Diarra, reducing their available midfield options for this tie. The club has not named a replacement, so the exact shape of the midfield remains uncertain.
- Sunderland AFC confirmed on 3 September that H. Diarra will miss the next six to eight weeks with a hamstring injury.
- The club said the injury was sustained in the previous week's win.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Hull City have started the season with a strong defensive record in the Premier League.
Hull City have kept clean sheets in their last three competitive matches: a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, a 1-0 win at Coventry, and a 2-0 home win over Manchester United. This defensive solidity could make it difficult for Sunderland to score, but those results came against Premier League opposition and may not fully translate to a cup tie.
- Hull City drew 0-0 at home with Aston Villa on 5 September 2026.
- Hull City won 1-0 away at Coventry on 29 August 2026.
- Hull City won 2-0 at home against Manchester United on 22 August 2026.
Sunderland have played several home matches in recent months across competitions.
Sunderland won 1-0 at home against Fulham on 30 August 2026, but lost 0-5 at home to Nottingham Forest on 24 April 2026. Their home form has been inconsistent, which makes it hard to predict how they will perform against Hull City.
- Sunderland won 1-0 at home against Fulham on 30 August 2026.
- Sunderland lost 0-5 at home to Nottingham Forest on 24 April 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's stronger recent form and home advantage give them an edge, but Hull's defensive solidity and H2H away dominance keep this close.
- Sunderland average 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches, with 4 wins in last 5 competitive games.
- Hull City average 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, but their recent league form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in last 5.
- H2H last 5: away team won 4 times, with Sunderland winning only once as away side in 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSunderlandEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sunderland's home form and Hull's tendency to draw make a Sunderland win or draw highly likely.
- Sunderland have lost only 2 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Hull City have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches.
- H2H last 5: 4 away wins and 1 draw, but Sunderland are at home this time.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSunderland or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and H2H first halves have been even, making a draw at the break likely.
- Sunderland led at half-time in only 27% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- Hull City led at half-time in 27% and never trailed.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sunderland may edge the second half if they push for a winner, but Hull's defense makes this uncertain.
- Sunderland have scored more second-half goals in recent matches.
- Hull City have conceded only 0.7 goals per game overall, but second-half data is limited.
- H2H last 5: away team won second half in 4 matches, but Sunderland are home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSunderlandEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Sunderland win is plausible given their second-half improvement, but not highly probable.
- Sunderland have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches and won 40% overall.
- Hull City have drawn at half-time in 60% of matches.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches were 0-0 at half-time, with away team winning.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/SunderlandEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and H2H meetings have been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Sunderland average 3.1 total goals per match (1.6 for, 1.5 against).
- Hull City average 1.9 total goals per match (1.2 for, 0.7 against).
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's strong defensive record and low-scoring H2H pattern suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Hull City have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches ended 1-0, with only one match seeing both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and H2H first halves have been goalless, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Sunderland average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.7 against.
- Hull City average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.1 against.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goals tend to come after the break in this fixture, but the overall low scoring makes this a coin flip.
- Sunderland average 0.9 second-half goals (1.6 total minus 0.7 first-half).
- Hull City average 0.7 second-half goals (1.2 total minus 0.5 first-half).
- H2H last 5: all goals in 4 matches came in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 9 total corners per match, making under 9.5 corners likely.
- Sunderland average 4.0 corners for and 4.5 against (total 8.5).
- Hull City average 3.7 corners for and 5.0 against (total 8.7).
- H2H last 5: corner data not available, but both teams have low corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages are below 8.5, supporting the under.
- Sunderland average 4.3 shots on target for and 3.5 against (total 7.8).
- Hull City average 3.7 shots on target for and 2.9 against (total 6.6).
- Both teams have low shot accuracy, with Hull especially defensive.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the cup context may reduce aggression, making under 4.5 cards likely.
- Sunderland average 2.1 yellow cards and 0.3 red cards per match.
- Hull City average 2.2 yellow cards and 0 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards per match is 4.3, just under the line.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%