Chelsea2Hull City2

HT 1–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges6–367%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 12–13On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 11–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 06:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Chelsea are likely to win or avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value.

The only slight edges are 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' (+3pts) and 'Clean Sheet Home - No' (+3pts), while most other markets are overpriced due to Hull's defensive solidity and the compressed schedule.

Context

Hull City are third in the Premier League with seven points from three matches.
They have not conceded a goal in the league this season, beating Manchester United 2-0 and Coventry 1-0 before drawing 0-0 with Aston Villa. This defensive solidity will test a Chelsea side that has scored eight goals but also conceded seven. Hull's low possession numbers show they are comfortable defending deep and hitting on the break, which could frustrate Chelsea's attack.
- Hull City have conceded 0 goals in 3 Premier League matches this season.
- They beat Manchester United 2-0 on 2026-08-22 and Coventry 1-0 on 2026-08-29.
- They drew 0-0 with Aston Villa on 2026-09-05.
Chelsea are fourth in the Premier League with six points from three matches.
They have scored eight goals and conceded seven, including a 4-3 home win over Brighton and a 3-2 away win at Fulham. Their only league defeat was 2-1 at Arsenal. This pattern suggests Chelsea will push forward and leave space at the back, which could suit Hull's counter-attacking style. However, Chelsea's attacking output is strong enough to trouble any defense.
- Chelsea have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 in 3 Premier League matches.
- They beat Brighton 4-3 at home on 2026-08-30 and Fulham 3-2 away on 2026-08-24.
- They lost 2-1 at Arsenal on 2026-09-06.
The teams last met in the FA Cup on 2026-02-13.
Chelsea won 4-0 away at Hull City, with all four goals coming in a dominant display. That result is recent enough to be relevant, but Hull have since been promoted and strengthened their defense. The previous meetings also favor Chelsea, who have won four of the last five encounters. This history gives Chelsea confidence, but Hull's current form suggests a closer contest.
- Chelsea beat Hull City 4-0 away on 2026-02-13 in the FA Cup.
- Chelsea have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the teams.
- The last Premier League meeting was a 2-0 Chelsea win on 2017-01-22.
Chelsea host Leeds United on 9 September and Hull City travel to Sunderland on 8 September, leaving both squads with a short turnaround before this Premier League match on 12 September.
The midweek cup ties compress preparation time for both teams, so selection management and accumulated load become relevant. The schedule gives Hull one fewer rest day than Chelsea, but the impact on this match depends on how each manager rotates.
- The Premier League's EFL Cup third-round schedule lists Sunderland v Hull City on Tuesday 8 September.
- The same official schedule lists Chelsea v Leeds United on Wednesday 9 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:17 · Europe/BucharestPremier League: EFL Cup third-round schedulewww.premierleague.com · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Chelsea

1.22fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Chelsea's dominant head-to-head record and home advantage are offset by Hull's solid defensive start, making the home win less certain than the odds imply.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chelsea or Draw

1.04fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 96%

−21.0ppshort

Chelsea's home first-half strength and Hull's inability to lead at the break make this likely, but the odds are extremely short.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.17fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Hull's exceptional first-half defensive record makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's dominant head-to-head record and home advantage outweigh Hull's solid defensive start, making a home win the most likely single outcome.
- Chelsea home record this season: 1 win in 1 match, 4 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Hull City away record this season: 1 win in 1 match, 1 goal scored, 0 conceded.
- Head-to-head last 5: Chelsea won all 5, scoring 14 and conceding 1.
- Chelsea overall form: 2 wins, 1 loss in last 3 league matches; Hull: 2 wins, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChelseaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's strong home form and Hull's modest away record make the double chance of Chelsea or draw highly likely.
- Chelsea have not lost at home in their last 5 home matches across all competitions (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Hull City have won only 1 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses).
- Chelsea have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChelsea or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's home advantage gives them a slight edge to lead at the break, but Hull's strong first-half defensive record reduces confidence.
- Chelsea led at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches.
- Hull trailed at half-time in 0% of their last 15 matches.
- Chelsea have won the first half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostChelseaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's stronger second-half scoring and Hull's tendency to concede later make a Chelsea second-half win plausible.
- Chelsea have scored more second-half goals than first-half goals in their last 15 matches (1.2 vs 0.9 per game).
- Hull have conceded more second-half goals than first-half goals in their last 15 matches (0.6 vs 0.1 per game).
- Chelsea's home match this season saw them win the second half 2-1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonChelseaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Chelsea half-time/full-time double is possible given their dominance in head-to-heads, but Hull's first-half resilience lowers the probability.
- Chelsea have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Hull have not trailed at half-time in any of their last 15 matches.
- Head-to-head: Chelsea won all 5 recent meetings, often by large margins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostChelsea/ChelseaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea winning both halves is unlikely given Hull's defensive organization, but possible if Chelsea dominate from the start.
- Chelsea have won both halves in 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Hull have lost both halves in 0 of their last 5 away matches.
- Chelsea's average first-half goal difference at home: +0.4; second-half: +0.6.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostYesEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's home first-half strength and Hull's inability to lead at the break make Chelsea or draw in the first half highly likely.
- Chelsea have not lost the first half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Hull have not won the first half in any of their last 5 away matches.
- Hull's first-half away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonChelsea or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's high-scoring home games and attacking output suggest over 2.5 goals, though Hull's defensive solidity tempers the confidence.
- Chelsea's last 5 home matches averaged 3.6 total goals.
- Hull's last 5 away matches averaged 2.2 total goals.
- Chelsea's overall matches this season average 5.0 total goals (8 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games).
- Hull's overall matches this season average 1.0 total goals (3 scored, 0 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's defensive vulnerabilities and Hull's ability to score on the road make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Chelsea have conceded in 2 of their 3 league matches this season.
- Hull have scored in 2 of their 3 league matches this season.
- Chelsea's home match this season ended 4-3, with both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's tendency to score early at home makes over 0.5 first-half goals likely, despite Hull's strong first-half defensive record.
- Chelsea's first-half goals per match average: 0.9 (last 15 matches).
- Hull's first-half goals conceded per match average: 0.1 (last 15 matches).
- Chelsea have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's attacking output in the second half could push the total over 1.5, but Hull's defensive resilience makes this a coin flip.
- Chelsea's second-half goals per match average: 1.2 (derived from total 2.1 minus first-half 0.9).
- Hull's second-half goals conceded per match average: 0.6 (derived from total 0.7 minus first-half 0.1).
- Chelsea's home match this season had 4 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's exceptional first-half defensive record makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Hull's first-half goals conceded per match: 0.1 (last 15 matches).
- Chelsea's first-half goals conceded per match: 0.8 (last 15 matches).
- Hull have not conceded a first-half goal in their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's defensive vulnerabilities at home make a clean sheet unlikely against a Hull side that has shown scoring ability.
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Hull have scored in 2 of their last 3 away matches.
- Chelsea's home match this season ended 4-3, conceding 3 goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHull City to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's consistent home scoring makes it unlikely Hull will keep a clean sheet.
- Hull have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 away matches.
- Chelsea have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- Chelsea average 2.1 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChelsea to scoreEstimated chance65%