Hull City2Manchester Utd0

HT 2–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions1–910%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 30%–70%ShotsShots 8–16On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 1–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Manchester United are likely to avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting opportunities are Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.95 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, while the match winner and double chance markets should be avoided due to heavy negative edges.

Context

Hull averaged 0.9 goals conceded per game in their last 15 matches.
- They kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Hull drew 4 of their last 5 league matches, often keeping scores low.
United lost 2 of their last 5 away Premier League matches.
- They drew 0-0 at Sunderland and lost 2-1 at Newcastle in recent away games.
- United's away goal difference is weaker than their home record.
Carrick was made permanent head coach on 22 May 2026 after replacing Ruben Amorim in January.
- This is an early-season test of the new permanent regime.
- United's pre-season results were mixed, including a 4-2 loss to AC Milan.
Hull won the 2025/26 Championship play-offs after finishing sixth.
- Jakirovic was retained as head coach for the Premier League return.
- Hull's recent form includes draws and wins, showing resilience.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Manchester Utd

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Manchester Utd's superior recent Premier League form and historical dominance over Hull City give them the edge, though Hull's defensive resilience keeps confidence medium.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Manchester Utd's superior recent Premier League form and historical dominance over Hull City give them the edge, though Hull's defensive resilience keeps confidence medium.
- Manchester Utd averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in last 15 matches, with 5 wins in last 5 Premier League games.
- Hull City averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15, but only 1 win in last 5 league matches.
- H2H: Manchester Utd unbeaten in all 10 Premier League meetings (8W, 2D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostManchester UtdEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Manchester Utd's historical H2H dominance and Hull's tendency to draw makes a Hull win unlikely.
- Manchester Utd unbeaten in all 10 Premier League H2H meetings (8W, 2D).
- Hull City have drawn 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Manchester Utd have lost only 1 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Manchester UtdEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Manchester Utd's early scoring gives them a chance to lead at the break, but Hull's resilience in first halves lowers confidence.
- Manchester Utd led at halftime in 3 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- Hull City trailed at halftime in 0 of their last 5 league matches.
- Hull City drew at halftime in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostManchester UtdEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Manchester Utd win is plausible given Hull's first-half solidity and United's second-half strength.
- Hull City drew at halftime in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Manchester Utd won the second half in 3 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- H2H: Manchester Utd often grind out wins after tight first halves.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Manchester UtdEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Manchester Utd's attacking output and Hull's occasional defensive lapses suggest a decent chance of at least three goals.
- Manchester Utd's last 5 Premier League matches averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Hull City's last 5 league matches averaged 2.0 total goals, but they conceded 2+ in 2 of those.
- Manchester Utd scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's ability to find the net at home and Manchester Utd's occasional defensive vulnerability make both teams scoring plausible.
- Hull City scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Manchester Utd conceded in 3 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- Hull City kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Manchester Utd's tendency to score early, combined with Hull's occasional first-half concessions, supports at least one first-half goal.
- Manchester Utd scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- Hull City conceded a first-half goal in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Manchester Utd averaged 0.8 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but the attacking tendencies of both sides make over 1.5 second-half goals a coin flip.
- Manchester Utd's last 5 Premier League matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Hull City's last 5 league matches averaged 1.0 second-half goals.
- Both teams have shown ability to score after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages hover around the line, making over 9.5 corners a near coin flip.
- Manchester Utd averaged 5.7 corners in last 15 matches.
- Hull City averaged 4.2 corners in last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 9.9 corners per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average slightly exceeds the line, but variance is high.
- Manchester Utd averaged 5.4 shots on target in last 15 matches.
- Hull City averaged 3.8 shots on target in last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 9.2 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Manchester Utd has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Manchester Utd has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections, with an average estimated probability of 58.5% against an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions. The missed projections occurred at higher probabilities (63.5% average) than the matched ones (53.5%), and both misses came away from home or against stronger opposition. The current 55% probability sits within the historical range of 52–65%.

Recent evidence for Manchester Utd4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 May·Premier League