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Predictions graded

Newcastle2Liverpool2

HT 1–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 13–27On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 02:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Liverpool are slight favourites but the market overprices them; the away win and double chance offer no value.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, backed by both teams' leaky second-half defences and high-scoring H2H history.

Context

Newcastle lose Joelinton and Livramento, yet Dedić is ready to start at full-back. Liverpool are without Bradley, Leoni, Ekitiké and Gomez, but Isak is fit and Gakpo offers wide cover.
- Newcastle must reshape midfield and right-back, but Dedić offers a direct starting option.
- Liverpool's long-term absentees reduce flexibility in defence and attack, but Isak's fitness preserves a central option.
- Liverpool's limited specialist wingers may force tactical adjustments, with Gakpo's role flexible.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Liverpool

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Liverpool's superior H2H record and Newcastle's poor home form give the visitors a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Liverpool

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Liverpool's strong H2H record and Newcastle's home struggles make the away side or draw likely, but the odds are too short relative to our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and H2H history shows high-scoring encounters, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks are consistent and H2H meetings regularly see goals at both ends, but the market already expects this outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's superior H2H record and Newcastle's poor home form give the visitors a slight edge.
- Liverpool won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (including 4-1 home win in Jan 2026)
- Newcastle lost 3 of last 5 Premier League home matches
- Liverpool averaged 1.5 goals scored vs Newcastle's 1.4 in recent form
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's strong H2H record and Newcastle's home struggles make the away side or draw likely.
- Liverpool unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Newcastle lost 3 of last 5 home Premier League games
- Liverpool drew 2 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or LiverpoolEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles and H2H first halves are often level.
- Newcastle led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 53%
- Liverpool led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 27%
- H2H first halves: 2 draws in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by Liverpool win is plausible given their second-half strength.
- Liverpool won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Newcastle trailed at half-time in 53% of matches
- Liverpool often improve in second half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/LiverpoolEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and H2H history shows high-scoring encounters.
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 4.2 total goals
- Newcastle conceded 2.0 goals per game in recent form
- Liverpool conceded 1.9 goals per game in recent form
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are consistent and H2H meetings regularly see goals at both ends.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Newcastle scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Liverpool scored in 12 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates are moderate but H2H history suggests early goals are possible.
- Newcastle first half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 0.9
- Liverpool first half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 0.6
- H2H first halves averaged 1.6 goals in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede more in second halves and H2H matches open up after the break.
- Newcastle second half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 1.1
- Liverpool second half goals: 0.8 per game, conceded 1.3
- H2H second halves averaged 2.6 goals in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Newcastle average 4.1 corners per game, Liverpool 5.8
- Combined average corners in recent matches: 9.9
- H2H corner data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Discipline stats suggest a typical total around 3.5 cards, making this a borderline call.
- Newcastle average 1.9 yellow cards per game
- Liverpool average 1.7 yellow cards per game
- Combined average cards: 3.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Liverpool has been unreliable when projected to win

Liverpool has fulfilled 1 of 5 recent win predictions. The missed predictions included two draws and two losses. The average estimated probability was 51.6%, but the current prediction of 45% is within the historical range.

Recent evidence for Liverpool5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League