ChampionshipFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Millwall0Hull City2

HT 0–0Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 10–14On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 6–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 May 2026, 20:59 · Europe/Bucharest

A tense playoff second leg is expected to mirror the first leg's caution, with under 2.5 goals and a first-half draw offering the best value.

Millwall's home strength and Hull's recent success at The Den make a home win or draw likely, but the market has squeezed value there—focus on low-scoring markets for an edge.

Context

Hull won 3-1 at The Den in December 2025 and 1-0 in January 2025.
- The first leg ended 0-0, so Hull know a score draw or win takes them through.
- Millwall's home record this season is strong (13 wins), but Hull have recent success here.
Manager Alex Neil publicly argued the disallowed goal came from a very soft foul decision.
- The first leg was tense and low on clear chances, so a single decision felt decisive.
- Playing at home with a grievance could push Millwall to take more risks early.
The Guardian reported Hull are under a transfer embargo during this playoff run.
- An embargo means they could not strengthen in January and have a thinner squad.
- If the match stays level late, Millwall's deeper bench could become an advantage.
Reports confirmed police intervention and missiles thrown at the first leg.
- The Den is traditionally a hostile ground for away teams.
- A charged atmosphere could lead to more cards or disrupt Hull's composure.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Millwall's strong home form and recent 3-1 win at Hull give them an edge, but Hull's recent success at The Den and the tense 0-0 first leg keep this a close contest, with home advantage slightly tipping the scales.
- Millwall home record: 13W-3D-7L, 33 goals scored, 25 conceded in 23 matches this season.
- Millwall last 5 form: D-W-D-W-W, including a 3-1 away win at Hull in March.
- Hull away record: 10W-5D-8L, 35 scored, 32 conceded; last 5 form: D-W-L-D-D.
- H2H at The Den: Hull won last two visits 3-1 and 1-0, but Millwall won 3-1 at Hull in March.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMillwallEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Millwall are hard to beat at home, and Hull's away form includes several draws, making a Millwall win or draw highly likely in a tight playoff second leg.
- Millwall home record: only 7 losses in 23 home games this season.
- Hull away record: 8 losses in 23 away games, but 5 draws.
- First leg ended 0-0, showing defensive resilience from both sides.
- Millwall's last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMillwall or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of cautious starts and the first-leg draw at half-time suggest a high likelihood of the first half ending level again.
- Millwall drew at half-time in 47% of recent matches (7 of last 15).
- Hull drew at half-time in 40% of recent matches (6 of last 15).
- First leg half-time result: Draw.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the first half is drawn, Millwall's home advantage and superior fitness could see them edge a winner in the second half, though this is a low-probability specific sequence.
- Millwall have won 4 of their last 5 matches when drawing at half-time.
- Hull have lost 2 of their last 5 when drawing at half-time.
- Millwall's home record shows they often push for a winner late.
- First leg was draw/draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/MillwallEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The playoff pressure and first-leg stalemate suggest another cautious, low-scoring affair, supported by both teams' moderate scoring rates and recent H2H trends.
- First leg finished 0-0 with few clear chances.
- Millwall home goals: 33 in 23 games (1.43 per game); conceded 25 (1.09 per game).
- Hull away goals: 35 in 23 games (1.52 per game); conceded 32 (1.39 per game).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 0-0, 3-1, 3-1, 1-0, 0-0 – three of five under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams showed defensive solidity in the first leg, and Millwall's strong home defensive record makes a clean sheet for at least one side more likely than both scoring.
- Millwall kept 10 clean sheets at home this season (43% of home games).
- Hull failed to score in 6 of 23 away games (26%).
- First leg ended 0-0, with both defenses on top.
- Millwall conceded only 0.8 goals per game on average in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages and a recent 0-0 half-time in the first leg, making a low-scoring first half very probable.
- Millwall first-half goals at home: 0.6 per game on average in last 15.
- Hull first-half goals away: 0.8 per game on average in last 15.
- First leg was 0-0 at half-time.
- Millwall led at half-time in only 40% of recent matches, Hull in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With the tie finely poised, the second half is likely to open up as fatigue and urgency increase, making at least one goal after the break highly probable.
- Millwall scored in the second half in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Hull conceded in the second half in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Playoff second legs often see goals as teams push for a winner.
- Millwall average 0.9 second-half goals at home; Hull concede 0.8 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Millwall's solid home defense and Hull's occasional away blanks give them a decent chance of a clean sheet, but Hull's attacking threat makes it a low-confidence call.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 43% of home games this season.
- Hull failed to score in 26% of away games.
- First leg ended 0-0, with Millwall's defense holding firm.
- Millwall conceded only 0.8 goals per game in last 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHull City not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A narrow Millwall win without conceding is possible given their defensive record, but Hull's ability to score away makes this a low-probability outcome.
- Millwall won to nil in 5 of 23 home games (22%).
- Hull lost to nil in 4 of 23 away games (17%).
- First leg was 0-0, showing defensive resilience.
- Millwall's last home win to nil was against QPR (2-0).
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner averages, and the first leg's low corner count suggests a tight game with few set-piece opportunities, making under 9.5 corners likely.
- Millwall average 6.3 corners per game overall, 5.8 at home in last 15.
- Hull average 4.1 corners per game overall, 3.9 away in last 15.
- First leg had only 5 corners total (Millwall 5, Hull 0).
- Recent H2H: corner counts of 5, 15, 3, 7, 9 – average 7.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes playoff atmosphere and Hull's higher card count suggest a more physical game than the first leg, pushing the total cards over 3.5.
- Millwall average 1.5 yellow cards per game, Hull 2.7 in last 15.
- First leg had only 1 yellow card, but playoff intensity often increases cards.
- Hull received 7 yellow cards in one recent away game.
- Crowd trouble and hostility reported, which could influence referee decisions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0Hull CityvMillwallMay 8, 2026CHA

W1-3Hull CityvMillwallMar 7, 2026CHA

L1-3MillwallvHull CityDec 13, 2025CHA

L0-1MillwallvHull CityJan 18, 2025CHA

D0-0Hull CityvMillwallAug 24, 2024CHA

Millwall: 2 clean sheetsHull City: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Millwall Promotion Playoffs	46	24	11	11	64-49	83	DWDWW
6	Hull City Promotion Playoffs	46	21	10	15	70-66	73	DWLDD

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Millwall

D0-0Hull CityMay 8CHA

W2-0Oxford UnitedMay 2CHA

D1-1LeicesterApr 24CHA

W3-1Stoke CityApr 21CHA

W2-0QPRApr 18CHA

D0-0West BromApr 10CHA

L1-2NorwichApr 6CHA

W2-1MiddlesbroughApr 3CHA

D1-1IpswichMar 21CHA

L1-2BlackburnMar 14CHA

W1-0DerbyMar 10CHA

W3-1Hull CityMar 7CHA

W2-0PrestonFeb 28CHA

W3-0BirminghamFeb 25CHA

L1-3PortsmouthFeb 21CHA

Hull City

D0-0MillwallMay 8CHA

W2-1NorwichMay 2CHA

L1-2CharltonApr 25CHA

D2-2LeicesterApr 21CHA

D1-1BirminghamApr 18CHA

L1-2Sheffield UtdApr 11CHA

D0-0CoventryApr 6CHA

D1-1Oxford UnitedApr 3CHA

W3-1Sheffield WednesdayMar 21CHA

L0-3West BromMar 14CHA

W2-1WrexhamMar 10CHA

L1-3MillwallMar 7CHA

L0-1IpswichMar 3CHA

W1-0PortsmouthFeb 28CHA

W4-2DerbyFeb 24CHA

Squad & Injuries

Millwall

8 out

Attackers7

Midfielders2/12

×#16

Defenders2/7

×#6

Goalkeeper4

L. Jensen — Muscle Injury

#16 D. Kelly — Hamstring Injury

M. Luongo — Knee Injury

#6 C. Taylor — Inactive

L. Jensen — Muscle Injury

#16 D. Kelly — Hamstring Injury

M. Luongo — Knee Injury

#6 C. Taylor — Inactive

Hull City

10 out

Attackers5

Midfielders6/12

×#33

×#20

×#8

×#33

×#20

×#8

Defenders4/12

×#18

×#23

×#18

×#23

Goalkeeper3

#33 T. Collyer — Inactive

#18 C. Drameh — Injury

#23 A. Famewo — Inactive

#20 A. Hadziahmetovic — Inactive

#8 E. Matazo — Knee Injury

#33 T. Collyer — Inactive

#18 C. Drameh — Injury

#23 A. Famewo — Inactive

#20 A. Hadziahmetovic — Inactive

#8 E. Matazo — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Over 0.5

No

Under 9.5

Under 10.5

Millwall or Draw

Over 3.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Millwall

Hull City

Squad & Injuries

Millwall

Hull City