Enkopings SK2IF Karlstad2

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges7–278%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlstad's superior goal difference and two straight H2H wins make them a moderate on-pitch lean, but the market has overpriced them: the away win at 1.75 and the Karlstad-or-Draw double chance at 1.22 both carry negative value, with a new coach (Bååth, appointed 14 September) adding real uncertainty.

The standout edge is Enköping to score Over 1.5 at 2.80, while clean-sheet 'No' on both sides is the most confident data-backed read.

Context

Enköping sit seventh in Ettan Norra on 38 points from 22 games, with a home record of seven wins, one draw and three defeats. Their recent league results have been stronger than their season average.
Enköping scored three at Sollentuna on 16 September, two at home to Assyriska on 10 September and three at Vasalund on 6 September, all wins. That is nine goals in three matches, well above their season average of 1.5 per game. The limit is that they also lost 0-3 at home to Stockholm Internazionale on 30 August, so the run is not built on defensive control. IF Karlstad have drawn one and lost four of their last five, so the contrast in recent results is clear.
- Enköping won 3-2 away at Sollentuna on 16 September 2026, leading 3-1 at half-time.
- Enköping won 2-1 at home to Assyriska FF on 10 September 2026.
- Enköping won 3-2 away at Vasalund on 6 September 2026.
- Enköping lost 0-3 at home to Stockholm Internazionale on 30 August 2026.
Anders Bååth is IF Karlstad's head coach, appointed on 14 September 2026 after the club dismissed Paul Olausson. Karlstad said the change was made to revive a stalling attack and pursue its Superettan objective.
Bååth has said his football is based on intensity and control, naming high pressing, a lower defensive option and sharp transitions as the principles he wants to introduce. Because he took charge only five days before this fixture, the extent to which those principles are already embedded is uncertain, and the confirmed change is the appointment itself rather than a settled matchday approach.
- Karlstad appointed Anders Bååth as head coach on 14 September and said he took up the role immediately.
- Bååth said his football is based on intensity and control, including high pressing, a lower defensive option and sharp transitions.
- Karlstad stated that the coaching change was made to revive a stalling attack and pursue its Superettan objective.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/BucharestKarlstad Fotboll coaching appointmentwww.karlstadfotboll.com · 14 Sep 2026Karlstad Fotboll interview with Anders Bååthwww.karlstadfotboll.com · 16 Sep 2026
IF Karlstad are fifth in Ettan Norra on 38 points from 22 games, with an away record of five wins, three draws and three defeats. Their recent league results have been much weaker than their season record suggests.
Since 22 August, IF Karlstad have lost 1-2 at Sollentuna, drawn 2-2 at Gefle, lost 1-2 at home to AFC Eskilstuna, lost 1-2 at Stocksund and drawn 0-0 at home to FBK Karlstad. That is one point from a possible 15 and only three goals scored in five matches. Their season average of 1.7 goals per game is not being met in this run. The counterweight is that their away record this season is still five wins from 11, so the slump has not been uniform across all venues.
- IF Karlstad drew 0-0 at home to FBK Karlstad on 16 September 2026.
- IF Karlstad lost 1-2 away at Stocksund on 12 September 2026.
- IF Karlstad lost 1-2 at home to AFC Eskilstuna on 5 September 2026.
- IF Karlstad have one point from their last five league matches, scoring three goals.
The two clubs have met three times in Ettan Norra since May 2025, with IF Karlstad winning the two most recent fixtures. All three matches were decided by a single goal or two.
IF Karlstad won 2-1 at home on 2 August 2026, with Enköping scoring once and trailing 0-2 at half-time. IF Karlstad also won 2-0 at home on 27 September 2025. Enköping's only win in the sequence was 4-3 at home on 17 May 2025. The pattern is recent and repeated, but two of the three matches were at IF Karlstad's ground, so it does not directly show how this fixture will play at Enköping.
- IF Karlstad beat Enköping 2-1 at home on 2 August 2026 in Ettan Norra.
- IF Karlstad beat Enköping 2-0 at home on 27 September 2025 in Ettan Norra.
- Enköping beat IF Karlstad 4-3 at home on 17 May 2025 in Ettan Norra.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's superior goal difference and away solidity (12 conceded in 11) plus a 2-1 H2H win over Enköping five weeks ago give them the edge, though Enköping's strong home win rate keeps this only a moderate lean.
- IF Karlstad sit 5th on 38 pts with a +12 goal difference; Enköping are 7th on 38 pts with -1 (22 matches, 2026 season).
- Karlstad away record: 5W-3D-3L, 18 scored / 12 conceded in 11 away games.
- Enköping home record: 7W-1D-3L but 17 scored / 19 conceded at home — the leakiest top-half home defence.
- H2H last 3: Karlstad won 2-1 (Aug 2026) and 2-0 (Sep 2025) at home; Enköping won 4-3 at home (May 2025).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's away resilience and recent H2H superiority make the draw-or-away double chance the safest result-side play, with Enköping's home vulnerability to conceding offsetting their win record.
- Karlstad have lost only 3 of 11 away matches (5W-3D) in 2026 Ettan Norra.
- Enköping have lost 3 of 11 at home and conceded 19 goals in those 11 home games.
- Karlstad's last 5 league form is DLLDL, but 3 of those were one-goal margins.
- H2H: Karlstad unbeaten in the last two meetings (2-1, 2-0).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score and concede at nearly identical first-half rates, making a level half-time score the single most likely first-half outcome.
- Enköping were level at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches (6 of 15).
- Karlstad were level at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches (7 of 15).
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals scored.
- Karlstad's first-half goal difference is +0.2 per game; Enköping's is 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's stronger first-half defensive record and lower trailing rate make them unlikely to be behind at the break, supporting the draw-or-away first-half double chance.
- Karlstad trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches, versus Enköping's 27%.
- Karlstad average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Enköping average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Karlstad's new coach has emphasised early intensity and high pressing.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's away win rate and recent H2H edge make a half-time-draw-to-away-win path plausible, but their poor recent form keeps confidence low.
- Karlstad have won 5 of 11 away matches in 2026 Ettan Norra.
- Enköping have lost 3 of 11 home matches.
- Karlstad's last 5 league form is DLLDL, showing inconsistency.
- H2H: Karlstad won 2-1 in the most recent meeting (Aug 2026).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw or IF Karlstad / IF KarlstadEstimated chance22%

Goals9 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides carry near-identical scoring and conceding averages and Enköping's home games have produced goals at both ends, so BTTS Yes is well supported by the goal data.
- Enköping average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Karlstad average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Enköping's home record shows 17 scored and 19 conceded in 11 home games — both teams scoring in a majority of home fixtures.
- H2H: 2-1 and 4-3 scorelines in the last three meetings show both teams finding the net regularly.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined scoring and conceding averages of 3.0 goals per match plus Enköping's high-scoring home fixtures point to Over 2.5 as the value side of the total.
- Enköping's last 15 matches average 3.0 total goals (1.5 for, 1.5 against).
- Karlstad's last 15 matches average 3.0 total goals (1.7 for, 1.3 against).
- Enköping home games: 36 goals in 11 matches (3.27 per game).
- H2H last three meetings produced 3, 2 and 7 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average roughly 0.7 first-half goals and Karlstad's new high-pressing approach should generate early chances, making a first-half goal the likely outcome.
- Enköping average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Karlstad average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Enköping led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in 27%.
- Karlstad led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging around 3.0 total goals but only 0.7 first-half goals, the second half carries the bulk of the scoring load, supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Enköping's last 15 matches average 3.0 total goals with 0.7 scored and 0.7 conceded in the first half, implying roughly 1.6 second-half goals.
- Karlstad's last 15 matches average 3.0 total goals with 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.5 against, implying roughly 1.8 second-half goals.
- Enköping home games average 3.27 total goals, with the majority arriving after the break.
- H2H 4-3 (May 2025) and 3-2 (Sep 2026) show late-game scoring patterns.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Enköping's home defence has conceded in the vast majority of matches and Karlstad's scoring average makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Enköping have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Enköping conceded 19 goals in 11 home games in 2026.
- Karlstad average 1.7 goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Karlstad scored 2 in the most recent H2H (Aug 2026).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIF Karlstad to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's away defence concedes regularly and Enköping's attack is in scoring form, making an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Karlstad have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Karlstad conceded 12 goals in 11 away games in 2026.
- Enköping average 1.5 goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Enköping scored 3 in their most recent match (Sep 16, 2026).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEnkopings SK to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Enköping's recent scoring output and home goal average make them likely to score at least twice against a Karlstad side that concedes regularly on the road.
- Enköping average 1.5 goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Enköping scored 3, 2, 3 and 2 in four of their last five matches.
- Enköping scored 17 goals in 11 home games in 2026.
- Karlstad conceded 12 goals in 11 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEnkopings SK over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's away scoring average of 1.6 goals per game against Enköping's leaky home defence supports them scoring at least twice.
- Karlstad average 1.7 goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Karlstad scored 18 goals in 11 away games in 2026.
- Enköping conceded 19 goals in 11 home games.
- Karlstad scored 2 in the most recent H2H (Aug 2026).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIF Karlstad over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's low clean-sheet rate combined with Enköping's consistent home scoring makes a Karlstad win-to-nil outcome very unlikely.
- Karlstad have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Enköping scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Enköping scored 17 goals in 11 home games in 2026.
- Karlstad conceded in 9 of 11 away games in 2026.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion versus our 42% estimate; the price already reflects the goal-difference and H2H read.

Prediction history

Enkopings SK's Over 2.5 projections have been unreliable recently, with only 1 of 5 comparable thresholds matching actual outcomes.

Enkopings SK has fulfilled 1 of 5 recent Over 2.5 goal projections. The average estimated probability was 62.6%, but only 3.1 matches were expected to be fulfilled, indicating underperformance. Missed projections had a higher average probability (64.5%) than matched ones (55%), and the current 60% estimate sits within the historical range of 55% to 75%. At home, Enkopings SK fulfilled 1 of 2 such projections, while away it fulfilled 0 of 3.

Recent evidence for Enkopings SK5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra