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Predictions graded

Shamrock Rovers3Waterford2

HT 0–1Fri 18 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 17–13On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 7–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 00:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Shamrock Rovers are likely to win and reclaim top spot, but the odds offer no value (home win implied 69% vs model 62%).

Avoid over 2.5 goals, BTTS, and first-half goals due to negative edges. The double chance is fairly priced but too short to back.

Context

Shamrock Rovers sit second in the Premier Division with 56 points from 30 matches, level with leaders St Patrick's Athletic but behind on goal difference.
They have a strong home record with 10 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss in 14 home matches, scoring 25 goals and conceding 11. Waterford are eighth with 34 points, just above the relegation playoff place, so they also need points. This match is crucial for both ends of the table.
- Shamrock Rovers are 2nd with 56 points, level with leaders St Patrick's Athletic but behind on goal difference.
- Shamrock Rovers have a home record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in 14 matches.
- Waterford are 8th with 34 points, only 2 points above the relegation playoff spot.
Shamrock Rovers can reclaim first place with a win, giving them a clear reason to seek a home victory rather than manage for a draw.
The league-lead consequence strengthens the hosts' incentive to pursue all three points. This could lead to a more attacking approach from the start, as a draw would not be enough to move them to the top of the table.
- The League of Ireland said on 15 September that Shamrock Rovers needed a win against Waterford to regain top spot.
- Shamrock Rovers promoted the fixture as a home match with important points at stake.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Waterford are eighth in the Premier Division with 34 points from 31 matches.
Their away record is poor: 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses in 15 away games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. Shamrock Rovers have been strong at home, so Waterford's away form is a concern. However, Waterford have drawn their last two away league matches, showing some resilience.
- Waterford's away record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses in 15 matches.
- Waterford have conceded 32 goals away, an average of over 2 per game.
- In their last two away league matches, Waterford drew 0-0 with Sligo Rovers and 0-0 with Galway United.
Shamrock Rovers midfielder D. Mândroiu remains unavailable through injury, leaving one fewer midfield option for the home side.
His absence reduces the available midfield selection options for Shamrock Rovers. The rest of the squad is fine aside from the named unavailable players, so the team will need to adjust without him.
- Stephen Bradley said Danny Mandroiu remained unavailable through injury on 10 September.
- Bradley said the rest of the squad was fine aside from the named unavailable players.
- D. Mândroiu started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 00:05 · Europe/BucharestShamrock Rovers FC team newswww.shamrockrovers.ie · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Shamrock Rovers

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's HIGH confidence and strong home/away splits support flagging this as an informational edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Shamrock Rovers or Draw

1.14fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's HIGH confidence and the exact match of implied and estimated probability make this a fair-priced informational edge.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show attacking intent, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in many matches, but the odds already reflect that likelihood.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' strong home form, superior H2H record, and title-race incentive make them clear favourites.
- Shamrock Rovers home record: 10W-3D-1L in 14 league matches, 25 goals scored, 11 conceded.
- Waterford away record: 3W-4D-8L in 15 league matches, 20 goals scored, 32 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Shamrock Rovers won 3, drew 1, lost 1; at Shamrock Rovers home, they won both meetings (1-0 and 1-0).
- Shamrock Rovers can reclaim first place with a win (title-race motivation).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonShamrock RoversEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' strong home form and Waterford's poor away record make a home loss unlikely.
- Shamrock Rovers home record: 10W-3D-1L in 14 league matches.
- Waterford away record: 3W-4D-8L in 15 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Shamrock Rovers won 3, drew 1, lost 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonShamrock Rovers or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers have a slight edge in first-half performance, but the probability is not high.
- Shamrock Rovers led at half-time in 27% of recent matches.
- Waterford trailed at half-time in 20% of recent matches.
- H2H last 5: Shamrock Rovers led at half-time in 2 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers are likely to win, but leading at half-time and full-time is less certain.
- Shamrock Rovers home record: 10W-3D-1L in 14 league matches.
- Waterford away record: 3W-4D-8L in 15 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Shamrock Rovers won both home meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostShamrock Rovers/Shamrock RoversEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent, and Waterford's away matches often feature goals.
- Shamrock Rovers average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in recent form.
- Waterford average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match in recent form.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Waterford's away games often see goals at both ends.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in 12 of 14 home league matches.
- Waterford have scored in 10 of 15 away league matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- Shamrock Rovers average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent form.
- Waterford average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but both teams have shown ability to score after the break.
- Shamrock Rovers average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- Waterford average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in recent form.
- H2H last 5: 2 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests over 9.5 is possible.
- Shamrock Rovers average 4.0 corners per match in recent form.
- Waterford average 6.4 corners per match in recent form.
- Combined average corners: 10.4 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a decent number of shots on target, making over 8.5 plausible.
- Shamrock Rovers average 5.8 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Waterford average 5.5 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Combined average shots on target: 11.3 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around two yellow cards each, making over 3.5 cards likely.
- Shamrock Rovers average 2.2 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Waterford average 2.0 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.2 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Shamrock Rovers have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Shamrock Rovers have fulfilled 6 of 13 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 55%. Their matched predictions averaged 57.2% while missed predictions averaged 53.1%, indicating slightly higher confidence in successful outcomes. At home they have fulfilled 4 of 6 predictions, compared to 2 of 7 away.

Recent evidence for Shamrock Rovers13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Premier Division