One Knoxville SC
Market 38% · BetBugs 42%
One Knoxville's stronger away record (6W-4D-2L) and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, though the edge is modest.
USL League OneFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
One Knoxville's strong away form and Fort Wayne's playoff desperation make this a tight match.
The best value is 'Win Both Halves: No' at 1.30 (+8 point edge), while One Knoxville to win and the double chance offer modest edges. Avoid Over 2.5 goals and first-half BTTS markets, which are overpriced.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
One Knoxville SCMarket 38% · BetBugs 42%
One Knoxville's stronger away record (6W-4D-2L) and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, though the edge is modest.
Market 64% · BetBugs 68%
One Knoxville's low away loss rate and Fort Wayne's moderate home form make the away side or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
Market 77% · BetBugs 85%
Neither team has shown the dominance required to win both halves, making this outcome highly unlikely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
Fort Wayne FC has fulfilled 5 of 6 Over 2.5 goals projections, a strong 83% rate. The average estimated probability was 55%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. All three home matches went Over 2.5, while away matches split 2-1, indicating home games have been particularly productive.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fort Wayne FCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 37-30 | 36 |
| 5 | One Knoxville SCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40-27 | 44 |

