Draw
Market 31% · BetBugs 35%
AC Boise's strong home form (only 2 losses) meets One Knoxville's unbeaten away record, making a draw the most balanced outcome given the high stakes for both playoff contenders.
USL League OneFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The most likely outcome is a draw (35% probability), but the best betting value is on both teams to score (65% estimate vs.
57.8% implied odds). Avoid the 'AC Boise or One Knoxville' double chance and first-half over 1.5 goals, as the market significantly misprices those lines. Knoxville's loss of Rodrigues and Boise's defensive addition of Yaro add uncertainty, but both sides' scoring records support BTTS.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 31% · BetBugs 35%
AC Boise's strong home form (only 2 losses) meets One Knoxville's unbeaten away record, making a draw the most balanced outcome given the high stakes for both playoff contenders.
Market 57.8% · BetBugs 65%
Both teams consistently score: AC Boise scored in 7 of 8 home matches, One Knoxville scored in 5 of 6 away matches, and both average 1.7 goals per game.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 65% · Market 74%
AC Boise's home resilience (only 2 losses) combined with One Knoxville's tendency to draw away (2 of 6) supports a high probability that the home side avoids defeat.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC BoisePromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21-21 | 21 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24-11 | 27 |

