Draw
Market 43% · BetBugs 45%
Both teams have a high frequency of halftime draws (53% for One Knoxville, 47% for Fort Wayne), and short rest may lead to a cautious start.
USL League OneFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
One Knoxville SC host an expansion Fort Wayne FC side on an 11-match unbeaten league run, but the home win odds (1.65) offer no value with our 45% win probability estimate.
The best betting edges are the first-half draw at 2.30 (45% estimated probability) and both teams to score at 1.73 (60% estimated probability), though margins are thin. Avoid the overpriced double chance and first-half both teams to score markets.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 43% · BetBugs 45%
Both teams have a high frequency of halftime draws (53% for One Knoxville, 47% for Fort Wayne), and short rest may lead to a cautious start.
Market 57.8% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams consistently score and concede, with Knoxville scoring in 13/14 and Fort Wayne in 12/14 league matches.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 75% · Market 85%
One Knoxville's low loss rate (2 in 14) and Fort Wayne's high draw rate (6 in 14) make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | One Knoxville SCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26-12 | 30 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FCPromotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20-12 | 24 |

